The smart money: Betting the Buccaneers-Bears

By Os Davis  |   Thursday, September 18, 2008  |  Comments( 6 )

Chicago Bears
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All right, so maybe “The Smart Money” is a slight misnomer; after all, the only predictable thing about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears game this weekend is that these are two of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL right now (not to mention this writer’s well-publicized, ahem, lack of accuracy in prognosticating the Broncos-Raiders game in Week 1).

Commentary: For reasons known perhaps only to himself, Jon Gruden has benched Jeff Garcia, nearly a single-handed force driving the Tampa Bay offense last season (and the Philadelphia Eagles’ second half the year previous) in favor of a guy with off-the-chart football smarts, through-the-floor actual ability and a sub-83 quarterback rating since 2004.

The Bears, meanwhile, after manhandling Peyton Manning and the mighty Indianapolis Colts offense in Week 1, stuffed the run (even wunderkind Jonathan Stewart managed but 1 yard in the first half) and stifled the pass throughout before allowing the hardly ballyhooed Carolina Panther offense to put together its only two touchdowns in the final 18 minutes of a squeaker. So what to expect this week? Well, the official RealFootball365.com crystal ball says . . .

Point spread. The majority of sportsbooks have the Bears at minus-3 with the occasional straggler at minus-2.5 or minus-3.5. The Worldwide Leader in [American] Sports has, for some reason, a “line” of Bears minus-4.5 posted, but the network isn’t actually covering bets, so no need there to put the money where the mouths are.

The low line is hardly surprising; here’s to thinking that these Bears will prove to be this year’s heart-attack team, jerking fans around by playing to the level of the competition (well, OK, maybe not the Detroit Lions) throughout with nail-biter after nail-biter. How else to explain Brian Urlacher’s disappearing act in the second half against the Panthers? How else to account for a loss in which no TD passes were allowed (and against one interception, to boot) and the opposition could really only claim two successful drives by the offense?

(In short, how did the Bears lose that game? Am I going to have to watch it again?)

Nevertheless, this is Soldier Field and the home team is opposing a quarterback who hasn’t thrown three TDs in a game since – you guessed it – 2004. Tampa Bay has allowed a fair two sacks in each game, but hasn’t seen anything like the top-form pass rush Chicago is bringing this year. On the other side, the Buccaneers’ small starting ‘D’ probably won’t be getting to Kyle Orton often enough to be disrupted; if Orton has enough time, he’ll make sound enough decisions.

Of course, if Devin Hester does a little returning, this one’s a complete no-brainer. The bet: Chicago, up to minus-3.

Over/under. Let’s see ... Orton vs. Griese will go for fewer than 35 points combined? Another no-brainer, right? Call it a part-brainer. Truth is that the man most likely to hurt the Bears, run up the score (as much as it will be run up in this game), and unknowingly receive plaudits from fantasy owners is Earnest Graham. Though Joseph Addai and Stewart were mostly ineffective against the Bears’ run ‘D’, when the Panthers did strike it was with their rookie and the ground game; in 2007, Chicago was a dismal 24th and 29th, respectively, in terms of rushing yards allowed and rushing TDs allowed.

Still, the Buccaneers are bringing a single weapon and surely Lovie Smith knows this much. The bet: under 35.

Double result. Now this is an interesting little prop bet that has you covering the “winner” of the first half in addition to the game winner. After hedging with the Bears, we’re looking at 18/1 on a tie after two quarters, 5/1 that the Bucs choke away a first-half lead, and 6/5 that the Bears are ahead after 30 minutes of play.

The Bears leading throughout, eh? Chicago had been tied 0-0 or in front for over 116 minutes before becoming another victim of Comeback Sunday. Smith and Orton’s conservative, sober play-calling on the offense plus surprising Matt Forte has proven excellent in eating clock and above average in protecting the ball; additionally, in both weeks did the defense take care of business with fewer than 60 rushing yards and a 25-9 score aggregate. The bet: Chicago/Chicago, though that Tie/Chicago is damn tempting at 18/1 with a halftime score of, say, 6-6 easily believable. Unless, of course, Hester returns one all the way.

Fantasy Football Impact: The fortuitous lot with Forte don’t need any pushing to start the man on Sunday. Flip a coin on Graham if you have another viable option, or if you believe the Bucs can get into the end zone ‘cause it’ll be earnest Earnest punching it in, to be sure. If Hester's playing, Chicago's 'DST' will be a great start.

Injury Watch: Tampa Bay is entering its annual injury struggles early, with Joey Galloway, Matt McCoy and Aqib Talib listed as questionable, while Gaines Adams, Derrick Brooks, Phillip Buchanon are officially probable for Sunday. Elbert Mack will serve a suspension for the helmet-to-helmet hit on Matt Ryan last week, and Jeff Garcia ... well, you know about Garcia. For Chicago, Hester is probably questionable. Maybe. We’ll see.
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's ...
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