Are the Bears better off without Cutler?

By Sprung On Sports  |   Sunday, July 19, 2009  |  Comments( 0 )

Chicago Bears
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Ever since the April trade that sent Kyle Orton, Robert Ayers and a 2010 first round pick to Denver for Jay Cutler, national writers and Bears fans have lauded the acquisition as someone who could finally answer the questions at QB that the team has had for decades and could be the guy to lead the team to the promised land nearly 25 years after the historically dominant 1985 team.

I like to think of myself as a contrarian thinker, someone who doesn’t listen to the incessant babbling of every talking head and every typical analyst. I enjoy going against the grain, which is why I trust and value the opinion of ESPN’s The Football Scientist KC Joyner more than any other football writer. Joyner goes through countless hours of game tape and film to create what he calls his metric system, based on a large array of factors to rank every player at every position. In The New York Times’ Fifth Down Blog last Monday, Joyner posted an article titled “Sorry, Bears Fans, Cutler Isn’t the Answer.”

In this article, I will go through what Joyner said, dissect that myself, and go through quotes I was able to obtain from Joyner himself in his weekly ESPN.com chat to further clarify his statements and how the Bears will really fare with Cutler at the helm.

“I’ve said it many times and I’ll say it again — Cutler will make Bears fans remember Rex Grossman.” Joyner said in his blog posting. “He’ll make just as many crazy passes but won’t suffer the Grossman fate because Chicago’s fan base is so in love with him that they will forgive the nutty throws he makes in ways that they never forgave Grossman.”

A lot of Chicago fans will then go into the great numerical stats he had in 2008, but that really clouds up the actual facts.

“Yes, he threw for over 4,500 yards last year, but that was in large part because he put the ball up a whopping 616 times.” Joyner said, and then went into the metrics that makes him famous. “His 9.8 vertical YPA was lower than that of 19 other QB’s last season, and his 4.6% bad decision rate (a bad decision being a mistake by the QB that leads to a turnover or a near turnover) was easily the worst of any QB.”

And if you’re not into all the scientific facts based on hours of tape, Joyner also broke it down by what’s most important, wins and losses.

“He was also the offensive leader for a team that blew a three-game division lead with three games to go.” Joyner said. “Another way to look at this is that Cutler’s overall record is 17-20 versus Orton’s overall record of 21-12 and Grossman’s 19-12.”

Looking at the other side of the argument, which all objective journalists should do, Cutler was certainly in a unique situation last year. Denver had several running backs go down with season-ending injuries, and with an awful defense last season under Mike Shanahan, the onus was really on Cutler to do everything, which certainly throws a wrench into Joyner’s argument.

“You kind of have to throw his bad decisions out the window - he was under the mind frame ‘we need to score at least 28 points a game to have a chance at winning,’ so naturally he would take more chances to try and score.” SprungOnSports Radio’s Jason Brand said. “With Chicago's defense, he doesn't need to force those passes. 14 - 20 points will be good enough to have a shot at a win.”

In his weekly Thursday chat on ESPN.com, Joyner talked to SprungOnSports about the Bears as a whole.

“I'll say this about the Bears - they get a lot of turnovers and have the next Brian Westbrook in their backfield.” Joyner said, referring to Bears RB Matt Forte. “They went to the Super Bowl with less talent than what they have now. Cutler will hurt them at times but many teams have won with QBs that have high bad decision rates, so they have at least a 50/50 shot at the division.”

As an aside, that statement about the Bears having a 50/50 shot at the NFC North did not sit well at all with a hoard of fuming Minnesota Vikings fans, who apparently didn’t watch Brett Favre completely torpedo the Jets’ season and derailed their playoff hopes.

But back to the matter at hand. Cutler’s maturity has come into great question over the last calendar year, but Brand says that some Chicago people could help him out in that department.

“It's true Cutler has yet to mature as a person and quarterback in the NFL.” Brand said. “The advantage the Bears have is a player like Brian Urlacher who can sit him down and tell him to shape up. No one else on Denver would have been able to get away with that. Chicago, with respected veteran coach Lovie Smith, should see the better side of Cutler.”

That’s all well and good, but you saw Cutler complain when he was the complete focal point of the Denver offense, which was as pass happy as any offense in the league due to all the injuries. But with Forte emerging as one of the elite, Brian Westbrook-like players in the league, who can both grind it out and catch it out of the backfield, he’s going to get a lot of touches from Ron Turner and that offense. And a balanced offensive attack is not something Cutler is exactly used to.

“Cutler strikes me as the kind of guy who would not take kindly to a balanced offense.” Joyner said. “Forte should be their centerpiece and if he isn't because of Cutler, it will be a shame.”

Let’s just say that sharing the spotlight on offense doesn’t seem to be Cutler’s forte. So as the season goes forward and the Bears, one of the league’s more high profile teams, look for their identity on offense with their new QB and there are some struggles along the way, don’t se we didn’t tell you so.
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