Bills should run a little, not a lot, more

By Anthony Bialy  |   Tuesday, January 20, 2009  |  Comments( 53 )

Buffalo Bills
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It shouldn’t be too hard for the Buffalo Bills to get the balance right on offense next season: They simply have to run a bit more than they did in 2008 and a bit less than in 2007. This team has two mildly dreadful examples with which to work, and although it’s unfortunate that the Bills created both fruitless models, they can learn from each and get it just right next time Goldilocks-style.

The offense was in slightly too much of a rush to pass this past season. The Bills ran just under 46 percent of the time: 439 of their 956 offensive plays stayed on the ground. With 4,882 yards gained in 2008, it works out to 5.1 yards on average picked up following each snap.

Contrast that to former offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild’s bore, snore, snooze and punt offense in 2007: They executed 919 plays, 448 of which were rushes. Mister Calculator says that means the unit rushed at a higher rate of just under 49 percent. That unwillingness to be unconventional resulted in the Bills gaining a mere 4.8 yards apiece every tedious play.

The difference between 49 and 46 percent is a landslide, and judging by the results each year, the Bills need to be right between the two results. That’s especially true when one considers that they threw too much this past year. While it was a relief to see Buffalo enjoy some passing variety this season, the pendulum still occasionally swung too far to the other side.

The example that induces the most cringes is calling for J.P. Losman to roll out during the brutal end of Buffalo's second game against the New York Jets, an attempt to pass that literally cost it a win. The Bills were occupied with being clever, and meanwhile the Jets were busy showing a suitable lack of mercy and destroying a play that should have never been ordered.

Taking a knee would have been preferable to what Buffalo incompetently conjured, and it was symbolic of how coordinator Turk Schonert should have turned to Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson in some obvious situations. It’s one thing to avoid predictability, but it’s another to write a William Shatner biography and not bring up “Star Trek.”

Running the ball is an act of faith: As it’s happening, it’s hard to see how a 3- or 4-yard indistinct scamper can set up longer gains later, much less notice how the play-ending collision bruises and tires defenders. But the process is happening and working. Teams can know what’s going to occur in the fourth quarter if they stick with the run even if they haven’t invested in a flux capacitor.

At the same time, rushing every single first and second down is as boring as it is ineffective; the Bills don’t have to make their order suicidal, but they can’t stay mild, either. Figuring the exact balance between innovation and lunacy is a task which dissuades even the most ardently hardcore football-savvy zealots from even dreaming of coordination work, but the fact remains that the Bills overcompensated on offense last season. Right in between is where they need to be, namely where they run a lot without running too much.
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About Anthony Bialy

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CommentsComments: 53  |  Sign Up  View all comments
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No.1
flda-dennis
10:28 AM
01/20/2009
Bills lose another one to the Dolphins. Cfl sack leader Wake, picks Dolphins over Bills. 260 lb LB that led the CFL in sacks....
No.2
PimpDaddy
10:44 AM
01/20/2009
Was this guy really a possibility for Buffalo? If so I love and hate the idea. Some Gems have been found in the CFL but I just...
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No.3
ddd
11:17 AM
01/20/2009
I keep telling you guys I expect Russ Brandon and Co. to be very active in free agency. They will sign 1-2 top tier free agents....
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