Slightly more Lynch would help slightly more than a little

By Anthony Bialy  |   Thursday, February 12, 2009  |  Comments( 77 )

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Buffalo Bills rushing kingpin Marshawn Lynch got a fine yardage total on a low number of attempts per game for a fair average last season. He was used more wisely in his second year than in 2007 even though his yardage decreased, and the team’s next goal should be to ensure it rations his use without starving.

Comparing how Lynch did in three categories shows he’s able to do more even though he already does well. He placed fairly highly in overall forward progress: Lynch’s 1,036 ground yards tied him for 13th with the San Francisco 49ers’ Frank Gore. Meanwhile, he finished 17th in rushing attempts per game with 16.7, meaning he went slightly underused. That’s not as alarming as what he did every play over the campaign: Lynch’s 4.1 yards per attempt only put him at 27th among qualifying backs. Frankly, he’s too good to have an average average, and it’s environment and not genes that’s the problem’s root.

There’s a sense that Lynch is still overcoming, rather than benefiting from, blocking. It wasn’t until well into 2008 that some of the line’s members seemed to realize they were allowed to push back against defenders trying to get to their teammate. The other back’s proficiency doesn’t make Lynch look unfruitful by comparison, either: While bash twin Fred Jackson obtained a higher rate per carry at 4.4, it’s fair to argue that Lynch opened avenues for him by wearing down the defense.

It’s absolutely not that Jackson is a slouch. Numbers aside, those who watch know both backs are superbly talented players, and the key is to make the objective stats match the positive subjective impression every Bills follower shares. The starter especially needs fitting numbers.

The Bills need to lean on Lynch appropriately to get anywhere, unless they’re content with winning only seven times per season for perpetuity. They don’t have to look far for bad examples of not doing so: The squad unsurprisingly lost six of the seven 2008 games where he was handed the ball 16 or fewer times.

That conspicuously includes his effort against the 49ers when the Oakland native acquired 134 ground yards on exactly 16 attempts; even when his rate of yardage per carry is magnificently large, he needs to also have a fairly high rate of carries. Some backs pump their totals by running out clocks in fourth quarters after the rest of the offense attains a huge lead, but Lynch’s abilities could carry this team to said favorable point margin. He just needs more chances to charge ahead.

But offensive coordinator Turk Schonert must provide him with intervals between dashes, something his predecessor Steve Fairchild didn’t do when Lynch was a rookie. The Cal product’s 21.5 carries per contest in 2007 led the NFL, which nearly provoked burnout in him; he carried 30 more times in his rookie campaign over two fewer games than he did last season. The secret is to use Lynch enough without overusing him, a tricky trick that must be the primary spell cast this year.

Examining the trio of statistics as rankings shows that Lynch playing brilliantly isn’t entirely up to him. He’s a singularly gifted back with a stupendously fantastic will and outlook, but he won’t acquire the yards per season and attempt to match until this team optimizes him. Luckily, he’s not only merely two seasons in but also just a tweaking away from rising off the plateau. The only trouble is that the coaches now have to actuate the plan; if it helps, they should be acutely aware that wasting Lynch’s potential bluntly means wasting yet another season.
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CommentsComments: 77  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
10:55 AM
02/12/2009
I'm glad I'm not an NFL offensive coordinator. Last year we all bashed the Bills for running the ball too often and being too...
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No.2
Amir FaSaad		11:14 AM
02/12/2009
Nate, Funny how rushes and yards per carry usually correspond in kind with wins. Is Oman making more than Jackson ? Now, that...
No.3
11:27 AM
02/12/2009
Amir- what do you think? Whose the better back, Lynch or Jackson? Even though you can't prove it by statistics I think Lynch is...
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