For Bills fans, Records Can Be Deceiving

By bILZrok  |   Friday, July 24, 2009  |  Comments( 68 )

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Take yourself back to a time that was enjoyable, upbeat, joyous and free. I’m of course referring to the first 7 weeks of last year’s NFL season. The BILLS had just pushed their record to 5 and 1. Hope and optimism were in abundance as the boys from Buffalo were suddenly relevant with the talking heads on the sports channels. The BILLS were finishing games strongly after half time adjustments as Trent posted the highest 4th quarter QB rating in the AFC. Then the roof collapsed with only two wins coming in the remaining 10 games. So how good were they?

People tend to criticize their 5 and 1 start by diminishing their opponents. Three of them (Seahawks, Jaguars & Chargers) were playoff caliber teams the prior season. Did anybody in their division facing those same teams do any better? The answer is no. Out of those 6 teams, 5 were common opponents (leaving Jacksonville out). The division winning Dolphins matched the Bills 4-1 record in losing only to the Cards. New England also matched Buffalo in losing only to the Chargers. The Jets performed the poorest by losing to Seattle, Oakland and the Chargers. They did however beat the Cards and Rams to reach 2-3. So nobody ran the table on those teams.

Looking back at head-to-head match-ups within the division from last season, the results were a little surprising. Although Buffalo went 0-6, their offensive 3rd down efficiency numbers were not all that bad within the division. In fact, the Dolphins and the Jets both struggled more against the Bills than anyone else. The Jets last year were held to a 41% overall success rate on 3rd down against the Bills ‘D’, while the Dolphins converted only 29%. The Jets managed 46% vs. Miami and 54% vs. the Patriots. The Dolphins performed better against Jets (33% rate) and Patriots (48%).

On offense, Buffalo managed 50% efficiency on their 3rd downs against the Pats and 52% vs. the Jets. Their downfall was the dismal performance in both Miami outings. At Miami they were 4 out of 14 tries (28%), while at ‘Home’ in Toronto they managed only 1 in 10 tries (that’s 10% for those of you named ddd).

For Buffalo to have success within the division, they are going to need to find a way to solve Dolphins ‘D’ this year. The changes made on the offensive line are well documented and the league consensus is that it’s a huge step backward. Time will tell as these regrouped players sort out the best way to get ‘er done. T.O. and Dominic Rhodes bring additional tools for Trent to utilize in a no-huddle scheme. Converting those 3rd downs and keeping the team on the field for longer drives will only bring better results and more scoring opportunities for the offense. Here’s hoping that they won’t simply be additional FG’s for April’s boys. September 14th can’t get here fast enough… but I’m sure Levitre and Woods would disagree with me.
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CommentsComments: 68  |  Sign Up  View all comments
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No.1
E rock		08:35 AM
07/24/2009
I think this article hits the nail on the head. The downfall of the Bills season was in weeks 8 and 9 when they lost at Miami and ...
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No.2
Joma		08:38 AM
07/24/2009
bILZ, not sure of your point at the beginning about the schitty teams the Bills faced. There's not really a debate there...they ...
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No.3
Goose		08:47 AM
07/24/2009
It just go to show us that stats are for losers--ha ha!! The defense is going to have to carry the Bills thru the first half of ...
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