Bills’ Fans: Don’t Sellout to Sellout Analysis

By BisonBoy  |   Thursday, August 20, 2009  |  Comments( 158 )

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Recently, KC Joyner (the self-described Football Scientist) researched fan support for NFL teams by estimating the work required by teams to have games sellout. Joyners work was published in the New York Times NFL Blog column. Joyner’s conclusion? The Buffalo Bills have “a genuine claim on sellout hardship as compared to the rest of the league”.

Why? Joyner analyzed the population served by each NFL team by using Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) figures to determine fan base and the size of the stadium for each team. Based on the size of the Ralph and the stagnation (or loss) of the fan base in WNY, the Bills need to achieve more than a 6.6% market penetration to sellout a game. This compares to the Bills 3.4% requirement in 1970 (smaller stadium, bigger population). This puts Buffalo tied for dead last of the 26 NFL teams Joyner analyzed (6 teams did not exist in 1970 for comparison). Who’s got it good? Both New York teams of course. With huge populations, the Jets and Giants have a much easier time selling out than Bills.

Being a bit of a research design and statistics nut, my brain wouldn’t let me accept Joyner’s analysis as some deep insight into the future of the Bills in Buffalo or the economic “bottom line” of a franchise that some feel is destined to relocated as soon as Mr. Wilson takes a dirt nap. OK, I’m a huge Bills fan too. So, when a downstate clown from the “Paper of Record” disparaged anything about my beloved Bills, I’m going to find fault with him! So, here goes…

First, Joyner’s analysis is only important if “sellouts” are not just correlated with financial success of a franchise, but causal. This is a common problem in statistical research. Just because fact A occurs in tandem with Fact B, doesn’t mean that fact A causes Fact B. It is easy to make an argument that a team with a stadium too large for its population base can be highly profitable without sellouts. Imagine if the Ralph seated 300,000 and the Bills only sold 200,000 tickets a week. The Bills front office would be much happier under that scenario than if the Bills sold out the current 73,967 seat Ralph. Let’s see, an extra 130,000 tickets at $30 each multiplied by 8 games a year, that gives me…somebody get Albert Haynesworth on the phone!

OK, I will grant that the “sellout” factor is important for team marketing, especially 48 hours prior to a game when local TV blackout rules apply. Also, given approximately equal stadium sizes across the league, sellouts would likely be a good indicator of fiscal success. That’s a big given. The Bears play in front of sellout crowds of 61,000 while Redskins sellouts come in at close to 92,000. That’s about a 50% differential. The Bills rank 7th in stadium size.

Second, Joyner’s analysis relies on the concept of market penetration and revenue management (via cagey pricing models). Basically, if city A has a bigger population than city B, city A’s team will have an easier time selling out than city B. This means that city A’s team is in a better position to make money than city B. Right? Well, not really.

Any economist will tell you that looking at the NFL in a vacuum is a poor way to analyze market penetration. Pro football, like any other entertainment market, has competitors far beyond sports. The more “substitutes” (economist terminology) available, the harder it is to sell your wares. The NFL is no different. Put an NFL team in a small town (let’s say Green Bay, Wisconsin) and the stadium will be packed. Why? Because there’s nothing else to do there!!! Put an NFL team in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta, or Washington and you’ve really got to compete with other venues (Broadway, Venice Beach, Roller Derby, etc) . The NFL has had two teams leave L.A. due to lack of fan support (Rams, Raiders) and the Falcons have never been highly attended.

Rather than Joyner’s “sellout” factor, a better metric for measuring the propensity for NFL financial success might be the demographics of the fan base. In Buffalo (like Green Bay, Kansas City, Oakland, New England, etc.), the population is relatively stable. That is to say, people that live in Buffalo have likely lived there most of their lives. The same can not be said of “younger” cities like Charlotte, Atlanta, Jacksonville, etc. Populations in those cities have no long-term ties to their teams so they never develop the rabid intensity required for long-term success. Only if the team is good, do fans show up there. In Buffalo, the team has stunk it up for many years and still the fans show up.

So, let’s give the Buffalo some credit as an NFL team market by looking at factors that really are indicative of success rather than poorly conceived models that don’t enlighten the situation.

Author’s confession: I grew up in Buffalo but spent the last 25+ years in Atlanta and Washington, D.C. My wife reminds me that I now pay more than $300 a year just to watch the Bills in HD on satellite.
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