Who would you rather have backing up Trent Edwards, Fitzpatrick or Cassel?

By BisonBoy  |   Saturday, August 22, 2009  |  Comments( 206 )

Buffalo Bills
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Although that question might have an obvious answer to most NFL fans, the truth is that I’m not so sure that the newly signed Chiefs signal caller would be better, or even as good, a fit as Ryan Fitzpatrick is for the Bills.

First, although the year is young, Fitz has clearly outplayed Matt Cassel in preseason action. Cassel looked lost even though he was playing in a system he was familiar with while Fitz is in his first year in Buffalo’s system and has more responsibility in the no-huddle. Fitzpatrick has a 70% completion rate and a 92.2 rating so far this preseason (I know, he’s in against the second-teamers).

Okay, part of one or two games is not enough to tell anything no matter well or poorly a QB played. Let’s look at an entire season instead. In 2008, both Fitzpatrick and Cassel pitched long relief for NFL superstar quarterbacks, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady (I think we’re supposed to genuflect when we say his name). Brady was lost in the opener and Palmer a couple of weeks later. Statistically, it seems, Cassel outplayed Fitzpatrick. Cassel’s QB rating was 89.4 to Fitz’s 70.0. Cassel had a slightly better completion percentage (62% vs. 59%) and significantly better Yards per Attempt (7.16 to 5.12). He also led in yards (3600 vs. 1900), TDs (21 vs. 8) and INTs (9 vs. 11). No brainer, right?

Although obvious, it should not go unsaid that Cassel subbed for a Patriots team that went 17-0 the previous season while Fitzpatrick got dropped into the pig sty that is the Bungles. Clearly, Brady had a lot to do with New England’s success but so do coaching, role players and the system in place. Cassel was throwing to Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Kevin Faulk and Ben Watson (to name a few). Fitzpatrick was throwing to T.J. Hushman…er…Houshmanz…well, that guy and practically nobody else (except number 85 whose new name is also hard to spell and who seemed to drop more passes than he caught). The Pats also possessed a potent running attack (in part driven by their “pass first” philosophy). The Pats rushed for more than 2,000 yards last year led by Sammy Morris (remember him). The Bengals (led by superstar Cedric Benson) had around 1,300. As a side note, Fitzpatrick ran for more yards than Cassel.

Looking inside the passing numbers we might get a different view. Let’s focus on YPA. I’m not a big fan of this statistic because it gives QBs credit for yardage earned by receivers who can run after the catch (YAC). It also inflates a QB’s rating. Cassel’s YPA was a good 7.16. However, New England had 3 receivers in the top 20 in YAC whose yardage totaled 1,616. Welker and Faulk were first and third in this category. If we look at the hard to find Gross Yards per Completion (yardage before YAC) Cassel’s number is 4.82 yards. Fitzpatrick’s is 4.78. Nearly identical. Trent Edwards’ was a much higher 5.85. We see similar numbers for Gross YPA as well.

Basically, Cassel threw a lot of short passes to high quality receivers that could run while Fitzpatrick threw in a system that was more “downfield” oriented to lower quality players. This generally leads to lower completion percentages and higher interception rates. Even so, Fitzpatrick’s INT rate was only a shade higher than Cassel’s (2.4% vs. 2.1%).

Given the price of a 2nd round pick and the exorbitant money offered Cassel this season ($63 million total and $28 million guaranteed), I’d much prefer the smart Harvard QB to back up the oft-injured Stanford alumnus in a no-huddle offense for a measly $1.8M per year.

Editor's Note: Cassel had a solid outing against the Minnesota Vikings on Friday night.
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No.1
Amir FaSaad		07:37 AM
08/22/2009
All 3, and Edwards, are 2nd tier QBs. Put any of them on a top 10 team and they all would be back-ups; 'cause they ARE back-ups ...
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No.2
anello1960		08:54 AM
08/22/2009
I have to tentatively agree with the Pre "mir" on this one. Trent's level of play is that of a quality backup QB, perhaps a ...
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No.3
Goose		09:15 AM
08/22/2009
Agreed---Fitz and Hamden are good back-ups but TE has a chance to blossom. There are successful QB's in the NFL that have similar ...
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