Buffalo Bills Play Baltimore’s Homecoming: Week 7 NFL Picks

By Todd L. Frank  |   Friday, October 22, 2010  |  Comments( 60 )

Buffalo Bills
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So a week after getting a lucky cover in an all-time great gambling moment (Favre’s pick-6 on MNF against the Jets secures the win for NYJ bettors), I also won on Pittsburgh -13 when Ben Roethlisberger threw a late and gratuitous TD pass when the Steelers were already up by 11. That said, my record is still a nothing-to-brag-about 24-22, so let’s see if we can improve that this week. Before we get to the NFL free picks and best bets, let’s start with a bonus college football pick.

Nebraska at Oklahoma State, UNDER 60
So far this season, Oklahoma State has been scoring and playing at a fast pace, but their schedule has featured the bottom feeders of pass defense. This week they go up against the top-ranked pass defense in Nebraska, a team that also runs the ball often and successfully. Look for this one to stay comfortably under the total. Bet Under 60.

BALTIMORE -13.5 vs. Buffalo
In only their third home game of the season, the Ravens will be celebrating the 10th anniversary of their Super Bowl winning 2000 team. And guess who got scheduled for homecoming? That’s right, the Bills. With the Champion vets getting honored at halftime, look for the current Ravens defense to try to pitch a shutout. Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the offense should also have a good opportunity to get in a rhythm and keep Buffalo out of reach. Former Bill Willis McGahee will score at least one TD. All-world Safety Ed Reed could also return. That hasn’t been officially confirmed as of Friday, but this home game against the Bills (with the legendary 2000 defense looking on) is a perfect time for him to start working his way back in to live action. And if you like to dig on betting trends, the Bills are 5-13 against the spread (ATS) vs. teams with winning records, while the Ravens are 11-3 ATS against teams with losing records. It’s a big number, likely as high as 14 or 14.5 on Sunday, but lay the points and bet Baltimore.

Pittsburgh -3 at MIAMI
It’s usually around this part of the middle stretch of the season, we start to learn which teams are elite and which are not. In the case of this matchup, the Steelers are likely to be serious Super Bowl contenders, while the Dolphins are still just a decent team frisky enough to hang around the Wild Card chase. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye-week to prep with Ben Roethlisberger and then last week’s scrimmage win over the Browns at home. Now they’re ready to resume their business trips and Chad Henne gets to face Troy Polamalu, Lawrence Timmons and a bunch of guys ready to remind us that James Harrison isn’t the only guy on this defense. The Steelers always have fans on the road (especially in a transplant region like south Florida) and the Dolphins typically aren’t great at home. In fact, Miami is 15-41-1 ATS in their last 57 home games. Take Pittsburgh and give the points.

New England +3 at SAN DIEGO
The Patriots are starting to gel and the Chargers are showing signs of not being able to turn it on like they have in the past after slow starts. Sure, San Diego is better (and 2-0 this season) when playing at home, but those two wins were over Jacksonville and the Derek Anderson-led Cardinals. While teams like KC, St. Louis, and Seattle might be a little better than expected, the Chargers lost to all three, AND to the Oakland Raiders. Obviously this Charger team is not that great. Meanwhile the Pats look focused following Randy Moss’s departure and they know how to show up for big conference showdowns. Also keep in mind that New England has gotten huge scoring plays through all facets of the special teams game, while San Diego has killed themselves by giving up just as many special teams scores. The Patriots are the best bet.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at GREEN BAY
First, two trends favor the Vikings: in the GB-Minn series, the underdog is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 meetings and the road team is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings. And these road dogs come to town to face a Packers team with more guys on the injured list than off of it. Forget all the drama surrounding the fact that Favre is adulterous creep and was a Hall-of-Fame Legend for Green Bay. The Vikings dominate when their front seven gets after the QB. The Packers are not only missing their starting RB and their go-to pass catcher in TE Jermichael Finley, but their offensive line is banged up and Aaron Rodgers has been getting beat up. The Pack come off two overtime losses and now face the pressure of the bright lights of national TV and trying to get their first win against their former QB Favre. Meanwhile, Favre and Moss thrive in spots like this. Take the Vikings.

Last Week: 3-3
This Season: 24-22
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