Bills should struggle against the first-place Patriots

By Connor Byrne  |   Friday, December 09, 2005  |  Comments( 0 )

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On Sunday, the AFC East leading New England Patriots (7-5) will visit the Buffalo Bills (4-8) at Ralph Wilson Stadium. With Buffalo's demoralizing loss last week, combined with the suspension of wide receiver Eric Moulds for conduct detrimental to the team, it is expected that the Patriots will dismantle the Bills.

Bills quarterback J.P. Losman, coming off a career performance last week, will make his fifth consecutive start. His primary target, Lee Evans, needs to step up for a second straight week so the Bills can establish some sort of passing offense. With the absence of Moulds, things are going to be tough on Evans. He'll probably face double-teams because Buffalo's other expected starter, Sam Aiken, has never proven that he's a capable playmaker. The Buffalo Bills' other two primary pass-catchers, Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish, also need to contribute this week. New England's pass defense comes into this game ranked a surprising 31st in the NFL. Their secondary has had plenty of injuries this year but they will be relatively healthy for this game. Expect Losman to play an average game but with no other proven receiver except Evans, it'll be a major struggle. If the receivers fail to get open, Losman will undoubtedly be running for his life. The Bills' offensive line is one of the most flawed in the league. Patriots' defensive lineman Richard Seymour might find his way into the backfield for a couple of sacks in this game.

In the Bills' 21-16 loss to the Patriots back in October, running back Willis McGahee embarrassed the Patriots' defense as he rushed for 136 yards. Coincidentally, that was the last time McGahee surpassed the century mark in a game. The much-maligned runner hopes to experience the same success this week against the Patriots' 17th ranked run defense. It's not going to be easy against a Patriots defensive line that has finally returned to full-strength. Other than Seymour, the Patriots bring in Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Willie McGinest, Rosevelt Colvin, Tedy Bruschi, and Mike Vrabel. It's never going to be easy to run on that group of players even though some (Bruschi, McGinest, Colvin, and Vrabel) have lost a step this year.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady should be able to fling the ball at will in this game. The Bills' defensive front can never generate any kind of pass-rush against Brady and that's why his record against the Bills stands at an impressive 8-1. The only Bills lineman that can consistently pressure a QB is defensive end Aaron Schobel. This year he's accumulated nine sacks, including two against Brady in the team's prior matchup. Once again, Patriots starting left tackle Matt Light will likely miss the game because of injury. That means that rookie Nick Kaczur will start and last time he faced Schobel, he was torched. Hopefully for the Patriots, Kaczur can contain Schobel. When given time to throw, Brady will look for Deion Branch as well as his tight end trio of Daniel Graham, Ben Watson, and maybe Christian Fauria. Patriots receiver David Givens is listed as questionable so if he can't go, Troy Brown will step in as the starter opposite Branch. Bills cornerback Nate Clements was torched by Dolphins receiver Chris Chambers so Branch may be able to capitalize on his poor play. Terrence McGee starts opposite Clements and he should do a fine job against Brown or Givens. Overall, I'd expect Brady to have his usual flawless day against the Bills' secondary.

Patriots running back Corey Dillon has been a disappointment thus far. He's averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Last week he returned from injury and did a decent job as he averaged 4.1 yards per carry. This week Dillon has the opportunity to face the Bills' 31st ranked run defense. He should have a big day and finally rebound from the struggles that he's been dealing with all season.

The special teams battle in this game could be key. Bills kick-return man Terrence McGee comes into the game leading the NFL as he's averaged 31.0 yards per return. New England's return man Ellis Hobbs is 16th in the NFL, averaging 24.1 yards. The kicking matchup goes to New England in this game because they have Adam Vinatieri. There's never been a kicker that's been more clutch in NFL history. For the Bills, Rian Lindell has had a brilliant season. He's hit 21 of his 25 field goal attempts. The punting matchup contains the two best punters in the AFC. Patriots punter Josh Miller leads the NFL with 46.7 yards per punt, while Brian Moorman is 2nd in the AFC with 46.1 yards per punt.

The coaching matchup in this game is totally one-sided. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has led an injury-depleted football team to a first-place mark in their division. It's a weak division but Belichick has never let his team waver from their ultimate goal. Bills head coach Mike Mularkey is currently auditioning to keep his job. If the Bills get blown out in this game he might be out of a job on Monday.

The Patriots should handle the demoralized Bills this Sunday. The game is in Buffalo but the team's fans are totally drained. Bills fans will try to give the team a homefield advantage but it won't be enough. The Patriots are easily the better football team at the moment.

Mark it down...Patriots over Bills, 27-16.

Injury Report:

New England Patriots: Safeties Artrell Hawkins and Michael Stone, Fullbacks Heath Evans and Patrick Pass, Tackles Nick Kaczur and Tom Ashworth, Running backs Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk, WR David Givens, and TE Daniel Graham are all questionable with various injuries. T Matt Light is doubtful.

Buffalo Bills: TE Mark Campbell, G Chris Villarial, and T Mike Williams are all questionable.

Comments? E-mail the author: cbyrne@realfootball365.com
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