Buffalo won’t have enough to best Pats at Gillette

By Connor Byrne  |   Friday, September 08, 2006  |  Comments( 17 )

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The Buffalo Bills will open their regular season against the division-rival New England Patriots this Sunday. Over the two teams' last 11 matchups, the Pats have dominated, winning 10. Frankly, there aren't necessarily many good reasons why this contest will be any different. Canton-bound head coach Bill Belichick and his Patriots are simply better than Dick Jauron's Bills.

Despite that, it's not a complete impossibility that Buffalo could sneak out of Foxborough, Mass. with a victory in hand. Having said that, let's take a look at a few things that must happen for the Bills in order to pull off a major upset.

Offense:

Willis McGahee rushes for at least 125 yards.

This isn't the same New England defense people have grown accustomed to in the past. The front seven has been dented by the offseason loss of LB Willie McGinest and wrist injury to fellow LB Tedy Bruschi, who may miss the game. As of now, his status remains up in there, but the 33-year-old is practicing for the first time since July.

In the Bills-Pats showdown from last October, Buffalo's starting running back, McGahee, shredded the New England defense for 136 yards and 31 carries. For that reason, Buffalo hung tough but eventually lost the game, 21-16. The longer McGahee keeps Tom Brady and the Pats' offense away from the field, the better off the Bills are.

Considering Belichick's defense finished eighth against the run last year, it won't be easy for McGahee to dictate the game.

J.P. Losman doesn't imitate Drew Bledsoe.

Whenever Bledsoe, the former Bills quarterback, would go into Gillette Stadium, it would be like watching a horrible car wreck. Brutal to watch, yet difficult to look away.

However, since Losman has never even started in the unfriendly confines of Gillette, there's a chance he won't know any better than to treat it like a regular game. But there's also the chance the 25-year-old will go out and completely implode, which Bills fans would obviously hate to see. Losman, who had a terrific preseason, is expected to finally become a competent QB in his third season. That starts on Sunday, though it will be incredibly difficult.

In order for Losman not to look fully lost on the field, he'll need the offensive line to get the job done. After seeing the group do so during the exhibition season, that doesn't appear like it will be a problem. Then again, the line could be easily intimidated by Patriots linemen Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork.

Defense:

Get some semblance of a pass rush on Tom Brady.

Why is Brady such a dominant quarterback? Most of it's his sheer ability to understand the game and make the right throws, but much thanks goes to his offensive line, too. Recently, the only Bills lineman able to get pressure on Brady and take him down consistently is end Aaron Schobel, who's one of the most underrated pass rushers in football.

If Buffalo's defense expects to hold New England's vaunted aerial assault in check, it must go after Brady with a vengeance. That means Ryan Denney, Larry Tripplett, Schobel, among others need to do their part. Will it happen? Judging from the past, probably not. And judging from the past yet again, Brady will pick the Bills' secondary apart, especially when he looks for rising tight end Ben Watson.

Let Takeo Spikes "eat" early.

After a gut-wrenching Achilles' tendon tear last September, Spikes spent the last 11-plus months waiting to get back on the field, and now it's finally time for the two-time Pro Bowl LB's wish to be granted. As he's said in the past, he'll be like "a mad dog in a meathouse."

During the course of his comeback trail, Spikes often spoke of returning better than he was before. There's no question the 242-pounder's intensity level will be at an all-time high, so Jauron and defensive coordinator Perry Fewell should probably send him on a blitz early in the game to possibly take down Brady and fire up the Bills' defense.

In June, when I asked Spikes whether he'd be back in time for this matchup, he responded: "I wouldn't miss it for the world."

The 29-year-old kept it his word. It will be interesting to see if he can recover his pre-injury form.

Bet on it...

Buffalo enters this game as nine-point underdogs, which is probably fair. Though the Bills have a superior special teams unit over New England's, that won't help them enough in the end. The Patriots are stronger on offense, defense and coaching than their weekend visitors. They'll cover the spread and win it, 24-13.

Injury report:

Buffalo - S Matt Bowen is questionable with a lower leg injury.

New England - LB Tedy Bruschi (wrist), WR Chad Jackson (hamstring) and QB Tom Brady (shoulder) are all questionable. Offensive guards Nick Kaczur and Stephen Neal are both probable with ankle injuries. WR Doug Gabriel (hamstring) is also probable.

--Got feedback? Connor J. Byrne responds to readers' comments and questions each day: cbyrne@realfootball365.com.

Get more on the Buffalo Bills at RealFootball365.com.
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CommentsComments: 17  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
Justin		08:00 AM
09/08/2006
I think the game will be closer than that, but I don't think the Bills will win. They can win but I agree alot of things must go...
No.2
Barry Gates Jr.		08:57 AM
09/08/2006
If Drew had problems figuring out Bill Belichick's Defenses after he played against the same schemes for year after year I have...
No.3
pragpro		09:16 AM
09/08/2006
I think to start the season the Bills are more cohesive then the Pats, and I relly think the Bills could lay one on them if their...
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