Breaking down Buffalo’s roster (Part II - offense)

By Connor Byrne  |   Tuesday, September 04, 2007  |  Comments( 47 )

Buffalo Bills
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This is the second of a two-part series analyzing Buffalo's offensive and defensive rosters prior to its opener this Sunday against Denver. Today's piece will focus on the Bills' offense.

Quarterback: Ever since Jim Kelly retired after the 1996 season, the Bills have been looking for their next franchise quarterback. Doug Flutie and Drew Bledsoe showed flashes of brilliance, but they were all too brief for Buffalo's taste. Despite recent struggles at the position, the Bills now appear to have two highly talented young QBs.

Fourth-year man J.P. Losman is entering his second full season as the starter, and he impressed in 2006. The '04 first-round pick from Tulane tossed 19 touchdowns, exceeded 3,000 aerial yards and was the NFL's 11th-rated QB. If he can mature into a less anxious passer while in the pocket, develop more awareness, improve on intermediate routes and find his check-downs more consistently, the athletically gifted, cannon-armed Losman should become an elite signal caller sooner than later. It can certainly be argued that Losman throws the best deep ball in the league. Don't believe it? Ask all the cornerbacks who were torched by the 26-year-old's long passes last season.

In the event that Losman doesn't pan out this year -- which might be his last in Buffalo if he doesn't develop further -- the Bills have third-round rookie Trent Edwards, whose 75.4 percent completion rate and poise wowed viewers during the preseason. The 22-year-old was so impressive over the summer that the Bills decided to cut veteran Craig Nall, whom the 6-foot-4, 231-pound Edwards quickly surpassed for the No. 2 role.

Kevin Eakin, whom the Bills signed to their practice squad yesterday, is the third QB.

Running back: The Bills thought they selected an eventual All-Pro runner in Willis McGahee during the 2003 draft, but he ended up as a first-round bust. General Manager Marv Levy traded McGahee, whose 3.9 career yards per carry average demonstrates his mediocrity, to Baltimore during the offseason for three draft picks.

To replace McGahee, the Bills grabbed Marshawn Lynch in the first round of April's draft. Lynch, a former Cal Berkeley star and last season's Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year, brings the speed, power, blocking ability and receiving skills that McGahee lacked. Lynch didn't put up big stats during the preseason -- 22 carries for 37 yards -- but that had more to do with lousy run blocking than his inability to find lanes. If the offensive line can be at least mediocre, Lynch should easily exceed McGahee's 990 yards from a year ago.

After Lynch, the Bills have a high-potential threesome of backups in eighth-year man Anthony Thomas (two games of 90-plus yards last year), fourth-round bruiser Dwayne Wright (12 carries, 51 yards in the exhibition finale), and the little-known Fred Jackson, whose 125 preseason ground yards and backfield receiving skills impressed Bills coaches so much that they kept him in favor of special teams ace Shaud Williams. To fill Williams' spot, Buffalo has fellow RB Josh Scobey, who likely won't see any offensive action.

H-back: Ideally, the player who fills the H-back role has high-end receiving skills and the ability to serve as an extra blocker. Ryan Neufeld, currently the starter, is a very good blocker, but he's not someone who can be counted on regularly as an extra pass catcher. Don't expect coordinator Steve Fairchild to integrate the 31-year-old Neufeld into the offense on a regular basis.

Tight end: Similarly to the H-back position, the Bills don't really possess a big-time tight end who can scare teams as a receiving threat. Veteran Robert Royal caught three touchdown passes late last year and finished with a career-high 23 receptions, but he's more of a blocker than another wideout. Expecting him to exceed 30-plus catches might be unfair.

If the team can get some production from No. 2 man Kevin Everett, a 2005 third-round pick with one career catch, that would be a huge bonus. In truth, it was surprising that Buffalo didn't release Everett last weekend.

The third TE, Matt Murphy, probably won't see much offensive action.

Wide receiver: Simply put, the Bills' top receiver, Lee Evans, is a star waiting to happen. He officially broke out last year, posting 82 catches for 1,200-plus yards and eight touchdowns. Evans, now a fourth-year man, was the only consistent target Losman had in '06 and is among the speediest wideouts in the league.

It gets dicey after Evans, though, with Peerless Price (8.2 yards per catch last year) as the other starter. Speed demon Roscoe Parrish and possession receiver Josh Reed will be vying for the remainder of the catches. Fifth receiver Sam Aiken isn't someone who will see much time with the offense; he serves as perhaps the Bills' best all-around special teamer.

What Buffalo needs this year is for another receiver to step up. The team knows it can count on the sure-handed Evans, but nobody else has proven himself as a consistent target worth throwing to. Price looked primed for greatness during his 94-catch 2002 season, but he fell off in a big way with the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys between 2003-05 and wasn't exactly above average for the Bills last year.

Reed, meanwhile, is a slot type who is reliable on short-yardage routes, but he doesn't strike fear into opposing defenses.

The Bills are hoping that Parrish becomes a dominant downfield receiver this year. Once the 5-9, 171-pounder gets in the open field, he's nearly unstoppable. The problem is that Parrish, a 2005 second-round pick, is not strong enough to regularly out-muscle defenders at the line of scrimmage and go by them, and his size also stops him from being a good run blocker. Therefore, Parrish is far from a complete player.

Don't be surprised if someone like Texas' Limas Sweed (6-5, 219 pounds) is high on the Bills' draft board come next April.

Left tackle: Like Evans, starting LT Jason Peters is a Pro Bowler in waiting. The 6-4, 340-pounder was an undrafted college tight end from the University of Arkansas in 2005 and has already developed into a tackle opposing teams wish they had. Former Bills G.M. Tom Donahoe caught a lot of flak during his five-year tenure in Buffalo for assembling a terrible offensive line, but he struck gold by grabbing Peters, who started 16 games last year (some at RT, some at LT), was charged with a respectable six penalties and surrendered only two sacks. Peters dominated opposing defenders on nearly a weekly basis, even holding Defensive Player of the Year Jason Taylor in check during a December victory over Miami.

The Bills have no official backup listed behind Peters, so they're obviously banking on the 25-year-old staying healthy and possibly making his first trip to Honolulu.

Left guard: Starter Derrick Dockery was the Bills' most notable signing during free agency. Buffalo gave the former Washington Redskin and four-year veteran a $49 million contract over seven seasons, briefly making him the richest athlete in the city's history (the Sabres' Thomas Vanek and the Bills' Aaron Schobel soon surpassed Dockery). Regardless of his pay, Dockery is a very talented lineman. Like Peters, he can be excellent in both pass and run blocking, and he's someone the Redskins are currently having a hard time replacing. Dockery, although he wasn't great during the preseason, should eventually team up with Peters to form an elite left side, perhaps as early as this season.

As they did with Peters, the Bills haven't posted an official backup to Dockery.

Center: As good as the left side of the line should be, this is where the group of five begins to get quite suspect. Last year's starter, Melvin Fowler, was mediocre at best in 16 games, and he won the job by default during the summer.

The Bills gave third-year man Duke Preston every opportunity to become the new starter, but he failed miserably during the preseason, even having difficulty with snapping the ball, which should be rudimentary for a center. Preston's poor play forced Buffalo to bump him down to third string and make ninth-year man Jason Whittle, whose exhibition play was somewhat lackluster, the immediate backup to Fowler.

One word to describe this position for the Bills? Ugly.

Right guard: Maybe -- just maybe -- the Bills can find a way to get some consistency from right guard this season. Buffalo is banking on second-year man Brad Butler, who didn't play that much during the preseason but was actually quite impressive when he did. The 6-7, 315-pounder was terrific opposite D'Brickashaw Ferguson at the University of Virginia and packs a mean streak that got him into trouble when he cheap-shotted then-Boston College defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka (now a linebacker for the New York Giants) a couple years back.

If Butler doesn't turn into the lineman the Bills hope he can be, they're stuck with either Whittle or Preston at right guard. Basically, O-line coach Jim McNally has to be thinking Butler or bust right now.

Right tackle: The jury is out at RT, where the Bills threw $25 million at ex-Oakland Raider Langston Walker during the offseason. At 6-8, 366 pounds, Walker is a behemoth, but he's not a very mean lineman, and he doesn't use his size to intimidate opposing defenders. The 28-year-old is a lot like ex-Bill Mike Williams in that sense. He allowed a dreadful 10.75 sacks last year for an Oakland line that was historically bad. To Walker's credit, he's a solid run blocker who should open holes for Lynch, and he's even adept at blocking field goals. However, Buffalo really needs him to step up as a pass blocker and keep Losman upright. If not, the team will be looking to backup Kirk Chambers, who has never appeared in an NFL game.

Where Buffalo's offense will finish ...

Floor: 25th. If all goes wrong for the questionable three-fifths of Buffalo's offensive line, the Bills won't improve much beyond their 29th ranking of a year ago. Regardless of how bad the play is from center to right tackle, however, the offense will definitely find a way to progress. Buffalo upgraded at running back, probably, and has enough other weapons and a solid left side, all of which should make for a better year even if more than one aspect of the offense goes haywire

Ceiling: top 10. Again, it all depends on the O-line. The Bills need Walker and Butler to play to their potential, and Fowler must fare decently. Should that happen, Losman would have plenty of time to pick apart defenses and find open receivers, plus Lynch would have enough running room to possibly dash his way to Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

Prediction: 15th. The firepower is there for the Bills to simply outscore certain teams en route to victory. As was said yesterday, it will be the defense that keeps the Bills on the outside looking in when it comes to the AFC playoff picture.

*E-mail: cbyrne@realfootball365.com.

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CommentsComments: 47  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
The Fox		05:18 AM
09/05/2007
First of all, Connor.. you fell into the same trap that everyone else has, with the same player in fact. Mel Fowler. Everyone ...
No.2
gerard		05:55 AM
09/05/2007
Hey fox, Fowler is average at best. Go back and watch game tapes from last year and see him getting bullrushed. He was another ...
No.3
RJ		06:06 AM
09/05/2007
Pretty fair assessment and you are right about Kevin Everett. It is hard to understand how the Bills cut Terrance Pennington who ...
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