Can the Bills improve on 7-9? Not likely

By Connor Byrne  |   Thursday, September 06, 2007  |  Comments( 29 )

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The past two days have been spent analyzing how the Buffalo Bills' offensive and defensive units will fare during the upcoming season. Today's column takes a look at whether the Bills will better their 7-9 2006 season, giving reasons why the team will win more than seven games and why it will regress from a year ago.

Why the Bills will finish at least .500 ...

1. The Greatest Show on Snow?

When the St. Louis Rams won two NFC championships and a Super Bowl a few years back, their high-octane offense was known as The Greatest Show on Turf. The group was led by play-calling guru Mike Martz, whose genius could only be countered by the league's best defensive mind, Bill Belichick.

Buffalo's offensive coordinator, Steve Fairchild, worked under Martz in St. Louis for parts of three seasons and is entering his second year as the Bills' play-caller. Fairchild has a similarly built offense that includes a Marshall Faulk-type running back (Marshawn Lynch) who can do it all, a Torry Holt-like No. 1 receiver (Lee Evans) and a slot speed demon in the mold of Az-Zahir Hakim (Roscoe Parrish). In order to really duplicate the Rams' offense of yesteryear, the Bills will need quarterback J.P. Losman to operate everything properly when given time by the O-line, and it's also a must for either Peerless Price or Josh Reed to step up as a dependable second wideout. Nobody's asking for either to be Isaac Bruce, but if one can consistently get open and catch 60-plus passes, Buffalo's offense will be even more dangerous.

Keep in mind that in 1999, when the Rams won the Super Bowl, St. Louis' offense averaged just under 33 points per game. Production like that might never be duplicated again. Realistically, anything over 25 points per contest could be enough for the Bills to earn a postseason bid.

2. The defense bends but doesn't break and forces turnovers.

For good reason, most expect the Bills' defense to fare poorly on a weekly basis this season. The unit finished 29th overall last year and was lackluster between the 20s during the preseason, but to its credit, it regularly stymied teams in the red zone in August and even came up with a couple of key takeaways. What the Bills have to hope is that the defense's ability to make the stops when it matters transfers into the regular season.

There are some playmakers on the 'D', including end Aaron Schobel, linebackers Angelo Crowell and Paul Posluszny, cornerback Terrence McGee and safeties Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson. Buffalo needs those guys -- all of whom are relatively young -- to reach their potential and disrupt the flow of opposing offenses with sacks, forced turnovers, etcetera. In other words, Schobel has to at least be the 14-sack guy he was a year ago, and the rest must be takeaway machines.

3. Dominance from the special teams.

Overall, the Bills' special teams unit has been the finest in the league since Bobby April took the reins in 2004. Buffalo has two-time Pro Bowler Brian Moorman, hands down the best punter in football; a solid place-kicker in Rian Lindell (92 percent conversion rate last season); great coverage teams (Sam Aiken stands out); and two explosive return men in Parrish (punts) and McGee (kicks), a former Pro Bowler. The Bills might deal with multiple scenarios this year where their special teams will mean the difference between victory and defeat. And when you consider the talent this group possesses in all aspects of special teams, expecting it to win a game or two isn't necessarily out of the question.

4. Stability within the coaching staff.

In a day and age where assistant coaches regularly move in and out during the offseason, the Bills were fortunate enough to see only Larry Zierlein -- Jim McNally's coaching partner on the offensive line -- leave. To replace Zierlein, the Bills added Sean Kugler, a former Boise State assistant and Buffalo native.

The Bills have two coordinators -- Fairchild and Perry Fewell -- who are young and bright, arguably the best special teams coach in the NFL in April, and a respectable group thereafter. Head coach Dick Jauron isn't necessarily an above-average sideline general -- his best trait is the fact that he fully respects his assistants' opinions and isn't afraid to delegate and give them power. In other words, there's really no ego on the staff. Jauron's two predecessors -- Gregg Williams and Mike Mularkey -- failed largely because of incompetence and their own hubris, particularly Williams.

Why the Bills will win fewer than seven games ...

1. The defense.

In RF365's defensive preview for the Bills, it was mentioned that they have a good set of building blocks in Schobel, Crowell, Posluszny and Whitner, among others. However, that still won't stop the 'D' from getting trampled by opposing offenses on a regular basis. Until John McCargo & Co. fully prove themselves at the tackle position, the Bills' defense, on paper, will be one of the league's worst. If you can't stop the run, your offense sees less time on the field, and it opens up the aerial game (play-actions, etcetera) for the enemy. When you consider that the Bills' secondary is quite green, that could be a recipe for disaster.

Buffalo's fans should hope for the best but expect the worst from their team's untested, smallish defense.

2. The offensive line.

A lot was said during the offseason about the big-money signings of left guard Derrick Dockery (seven years, $49 million) and right tackle Langston Walker (five years, $25 million). While Dockery is a very good player and the lineman to his left, Jason Peters, is a Pro Bowler in waiting at tackle, there isn't much else to get excited about among the other three starters.

It's been discussed here ad nauseam that Melvin Fowler is not a starting-caliber center, but Buffalo has no other options better than him right now.

Current No. 1 right guard Brad Butler has never started a game; the Bills are hoping his impressive exhibition play carries over into the regular season. Who really knows, though?

Finally, Walker allowed 10.75 sacks as an Oakland Raider last year, and he earned the reputation as someone who tends to be lackadaisical when things aren't going his way. The fact that the 6-foot-8, 366-pound Walker can run block is nice, but for $25 million, he'd better be able to keep opposing defenders away from Losman.

The Bills know what they have with Peters and Dockery -- a left side that has the potential to be great. But when 60 percent of your offensive line is a question mark at best, odds are the overall group won't be very successful.

3. The schedule.

Last year, Buffalo undertook the unfortunate task of playing eight games against playoff-bound teams, plus the Bills had to face both Super Bowl representatives. On paper, things don't appear much easier for 2007. The Bills' first eight games of the season are against teams that finished at least .500 last year, with five coming off playoff campaigns. When looking at the schedule, it's clear that only three games -- two against Miami and one in Cleveland -- seem as if they'll be easy for the Bills. The rest -- including a total of four matchups against the Jets (who reached the postseason in '06) and the Super Bowl-ready Patriots -- certainly aren't cakewalks. With the schedule in mind, if Buffalo can match last year's seven-win total, this season would have to be considered a success.

4. Losman stumbles.

The belief among those who follow the Bills is that Losman will continue to progress after a 19-touchdown, 3,051-yard season in which he finished as the NFL's 11th-rated passer. Obviously, however, that isn't a guarantee. There is always a chance that the 26-year-old will suffer from David Carr syndrome, which is to show flashes of potential but never really progress further. Keep in mind that Losman, a 2004 first-round pick, has gone just 9-16 in his first 25 games and has only beaten two teams with a winning record (Kansas City in '05 and the Jets in '06). If Losman doesn't take the next step, the chances of the Bills finishing .500 or better are slim to none. He's in the same offensive system for the second straight year and has better weapons around him, so unless the O-line is completely inept, there is no way Losman should regress.

Where the Bills will finish ...

Floor: 4-12. In order to lose 12 games, everything would have to go wrong for Buffalo. It's not really a likely scenario, but it's one that should not be ruled out.

Ceiling: 10-6. Can the Bills be the surprise team of '07? Maybe. The offensive firepower does exist, and perhaps the defense is too young to understand that it's supposed to be a low-end group. The funny thing about sports is that when you count out a particular person or team, sometimes they can surprise. Bills fans hope that's the story regarding their 'D' this year.

Prediction: 6-10 (third in the AFC East). After successfully forecasting a 7-9 record prior to last season, I had to think long and hard about how far along this youth-laden Bills team is. Although the RF365 prediction has Buffalo winning fewer games than it did in 2006, that doesn't mean the organization itself is worse off. The strength of schedule will play a big role in how many victories the team racks up. Unfortunately for the Bills, having to play the toughest schedule in the league off a seven-win campaign doesn't exactly bode well for them.

General NFL predictions:

AFC division winners ... Patriots (East), Chargers (West), Bengals (North), Colts (South). Wild-card teams ... Jets (East), Broncos (West).

Playoffs - Round 1: Colts over Jets, Broncos over Bengals; Round 2: Patriots over Colts, Broncos over Chargers. AFC title game: Patriots over Broncos.

NFC division winners ... Cowboys (East), Seahawks (West), Bears (North), Saints (South. Wild-card teams ... Eagles (East), Redskins (East).

Playoffs - Round 1: Seahawks over Redskins, Eagles over Bears; Round 2: Saints over Eagles, Cowboys over Seahawks. NFC title game: Saints over Cowboys.

Super Bowl XLII: Patriots over Saints.

E-mail: cbyrne@realfootball365.com

Get more on the Buffalo Bills at RealFootball365.com
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