Bills don’t match up well with Denver

By Connor Byrne  |   Thursday, September 06, 2007  |  Comments( 27 )

Buffalo Bills
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The 2006 schedule-makers were unkind to the Buffalo Bills, who faced the NFL's toughest slate but still managed a decent 7-9 record. It won't get any easier for the Bills this year; of the team's first eight opponents, all finished at least .500 last season and five appeared in the playoffs.

The 2007 season begins for Buffalo at home this Sunday against the Denver Broncos, who finished '06 with a 9-7 mark and appear as if they're ready to make a return to the postseason after a one-year absence.

How do the Bills match up against the Broncos? Here's a look.

Buffalo's offense against Denver's defense:

On the ground, first-round rookie running back Marshawn Lynch, the 12th overall pick in April's draft, could potentially have a field day. Frankly, either he or one of the Bills' other backs will have to. Lynch has the task of squaring off against a Denver defense that finished a respectable 12th against the rush last year.

The Broncos' front seven -- other than linebacker D.J. Williams -- isn't very impressive on paper, boasting over-the-hill linemen Sam Adams and Simeon Rice, plus less-than-stupendous LBs Ian Gold and Nick Webster. Rice, currently listed as a starter on Denver's depth chart, is a major liability against the run and will probably only see playing time on obvious passing situations. Adams, meanwhile, generously listed at only 330 pounds, hasn't been his old self for at least three years and more closely resembles Uncle Phil from "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air" than a run-stuffing force.

Regardless of whom the Broncos put on the field -- whether it's first-round rookie Jarvis Moss, underrated pass rusher Elvis Dumervil, among others -- it is imperative for Lynch to have a big game and keep Denver's high-potential offense away from the field.

In terms of the aerial offense, Bills wideout Lee Evans is someone who has the ability to exceed 100 yards receiving in any given week. In this game, though, the fourth-year man, who hoarded 82 receptions for over 1,200 yards a season ago, has to battle the league's top cornerback in Champ Bailey and his batterymate, the newly acquired Dre Bly. If Bailey and Bly stymie Evans, who's going to step up for Buffalo as another receiving threat? Neither Peerless Price nor Josh Reed will scare Denver's secondary, which also includes accomplished safety John Lynch and the unheralded Nick Ferguson. The Bills need either speedster Roscoe Parrish, tight end Robert Royal or Lynch takes some pressure off Evans and give quarterback J.P. Losman another option worth throwing to.

Where the Bills might really struggle is in pass protection. Denver has good rushers in Dumervil (8½ sacks as a rookie last season), Rice (121 career sacks) and Moss, who took down enemy quarterbacks a combined 15 times in his final two years as a Florida Gator. Buffalo could have a hard time keeping those three off Losman's back, especially when you consider that 60 percent of the team's O-line is a question mark.

The Bills have a stout pass protector in left tackle Jason Peters and an above-average one in left guard Derrick Dockery. The question is: Can center Melvin Fowler, right guard Brad Butler and right tackle Langston Walker keep the Broncos' talented rushers away from Losman? If they can't, offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild will be forced to leave Royal on the line as a blocker, not get open downfield, and the RBs -- Lynch, Anthony Thomas and Dwayne Wright -- will also need to pick up rushers and remain in the backfield instead of becoming extra receivers.

Buffalo's defense against Denver's offense:

The ground game is where the Broncos are expected to really make hay this weekend. Denver added three-time 1,200-yard rusher Travis Henry, who made a Pro Bowl with the Bills in 2002, during the offseason. Henry dashed Buffalo's slim playoff hopes last Christmas Eve with the Tennessee Titans, rushing for 135 yards.

As a member of the Broncos' offense -- which is known for churning out great rushing campaigns annually -- Henry's likely season of excellence begins this Sunday against a run defense that people figure will be among the league's worst.

The shifty, hard-to-tackle Henry gets the opportunity to take on a front four that includes against-the-run liabilities in tackle Larry Tripplett, end Aaron Schobel and smallish linebacker Coy Wire. What Buffalo has to hope for is that young tackle Kyle Williams continues his somewhat strong play from a year ago and that fellow DT John McCargo, returning from an injury-riddled rookie year, becomes the run stopper the Bills thought they were selecting in the first round of the '06 draft. McCargo, at 307 pounds, could be Buffalo's version of the Chicago Bears' Tommie Harris, and it needs to begin this Sunday.

You can bet that LBs Paul Posluszny and Angelo Crowell and safety Donte Whitner will do their part to keep Henry and backup Selvin Young from dictating the game. Can the rest of the 'D' do the same?

If the Broncos' rushing attack succeeds, it will certainly open things up for second-year quarterback Jay Cutler, who is entering his first opening-day start. Cutler, whose poise, arm strength and athleticism are reminiscent of a young Brett Favre, is likely to look toward No. 1 receiver Javon Walker (69 catches, 1,084 yards last year) on a regular basis. And why not? The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Walker has the size to toy with the Bills' top two corners, Terrence McGee and Jason Webster, both of whom are 5-9.

The problem for Denver is that it doesn't really have a tried-and-true second threat in the passing game to complement Walker. NFL sophomore Brandon Marshall has potential, but he caught just 20 passes as a rookie last year. On the surface, slot WR Brandon Stokley, an ex-Indianapolis Colt, is a household name. However, he grabbed a mediocre 41 passes in 2005 and appeared in only four games last year, totaling eight receptions. Finally, Henry has never been more than a marginal pass catcher from the backfield.

Tight end Daniel Graham, a former New England Patriot whom Denver paid huge money in the offseason, has always been known as more of a blocking specialist, but he does have a chance to become a great all-around player in '07. Don't be surprised if the game plan of head coach Mike Shanahan, assistant Mike Heimerdinger and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison is to turn Graham loose against Wire, who has been weak in pass coverage throughout his career.

If Walker and Graham get going and the Broncos receive some extra aid from Marshall, Stokley & Co., the odds of Cutler amassing big numbers are solid.

Getting to Cutler won't be easy for Buffalo's defense, which is up against an offensive line that is consistently one of the league's elite. Although it was only preseason, the Bills generated almost no pass rush during their four-game exhibition schedule, and they're quite thin at defensive end. Pro Bowler Aaron Schobel (14 sacks last season) is really the Bills' only QB-rushing weapon. Fellow DE Chris Kelsay tallied a career-high 5½ sacks last year; can he at least apply some pressure on Cutler? Perhaps.

If the front four gives Cutler too much time in the pocket, Bills defensive coordinator Perry Fewell will have to mix in blitzes from Crowell, Posluszny, Whitner and Ko Simpson. Fewell and his Tampa 2 scheme are quite aggressive, so he'll probably send extra rushers regularly, regardless of how the remainder of the 'D' fares in terms of getting pressure. Against a Broncos O-line that features respected, accomplished blockers in left tackle Matt Lepsis and center Tom Nalen, nothing will come easy for Buffalo.

Four key X factors:

1. Bills WR Roscoe Parrish. Once the 5-9, 171-pound Parrish gets in the open field, forget it. He's virtually impossible to take down. If the Broncos' attention goes to Evans too much, the chances of Parrish, a third-year man, burning the defense are very good. He hauled in two touchdown catches of over 40 yards last year and had a breakout summer for Buffalo. There are very few nickel corners in the league -- if any -- with the speed to match up with Parrish.

2. The home crowd. Buffalo's 12th man must get involved for their team to have any chance on Sunday. Normally, the Bills' fans are loud every week, but the decibel levels reach their crescendo during the home opener. It is a must for Buffalo's loyalists to rev up their own players and keep Cutler & Co. from hearing properly.

3. Denver's past two opening-day defeats. Although the Broncos are a combined 22-10 during the last two regular seasons, their Week 1 contests have not gone well at all. En route to a 13-3 season in '05, Denver dropped its opener in stunning fashion, 34-10, in Miami. Last season in St. Louis, the Rams' usually weak defense forced five Bronco turnovers and took an ugly 18-10 decision. The Bills are optimistic that they'll be the third straight home team to victimize the opening-day version of the Broncos.

4. After two offseason deaths, the Broncos are playing with heavy hearts. Denver lost one of its key players from last year, cornerback Darrent Williams, just hours after its '06 season ended. Williams, sitting in a limousine with Javon Walker, was shot and killed outside of a nightclub. Walker, who is still having difficulty living down the death of his friend, keeps the blood-stained shirt in his closet to remind him of that tragic day.

Last Feb. 25, another Bronco, running back Damien Nash, passed away. Nash, just 24 years old, collapsed and died shortly after the completion of a charity basketball event he was hosting. The function, both ironically and sadly, was to raise money for heart transplant research.

The Broncos will absolutely be thinking of their two fallen teammates before and during their game against the Bills, and it might just fuel Denver to an emotional Week 1 win.

Prediction: Broncos 31, Bills 23.

Buffalo's home crowd will help make this a hard-fought battle, but it won't be enough. In the end, the better team -- Denver -- will start the season off right with a victory.

E-mail: cbyrne@realfootball365.com

RealFootball365.com: Your best Internet source for Bills coverage.
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