Bills have reasons for optimism, pessimism entering ‘MNF’ tilt

By Connor Byrne  |   Sunday, October 07, 2007  |  Comments( 14 )

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To many people, the game tonight between the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys probably seems uninteresting on the surface. Dallas, which possesses a 4-0 record and is a 10-point favorite, enters Buffalo to face a 1-3 team that has been plagued by unfortunate injuries and inept play throughout the young season.

As all NFL fans know, however, games are never played on paper. Yes, the Bills have a chance to win tonight. How, you ask? Well, here are some factors, both positive and negative by Buffalo's standpoint, that might play into tonight's matchup between the NFC's last remaining undefeated team and an AFC squad looking for its second consecutive win.

Reasons for optimism ...

1. Dallas' secondary is wounded.

Cowboys No. 1 cornerback Terrence Newman will be playing hurt, and fellow starter Anthony Henry is out with a sprained ankle. Additionally, Dallas' most well-known safety, Roy Williams, is weak in pass coverage -- he's more about stopping the run and blitzing the quarterback.

With all that in mind, there is a very good chance Buffalo QB Trent Edwards, making his second career pro start after a 22-of-28, 234-yard gem in a 17-14 win over the Jets last week, will have another terrific game. Bills offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild has a lot of confidence in his 23-year-old signal-caller; Edwards, a third-round rookie from Stanford, might look to stretch the field often (mostly using speedy receivers Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish) and put some points on the board through the air against the league's 17th-ranked pass defense. It also helps that Edwards uses his tight ends (seven receptions, 51 yards last week) effectively, and Fairchild is looking to get solid rookie running back Marshawn Lynch more involved as a pass catcher. He could even split out wide to fool enemy defenders.

2. Another 3-4 opponent.

For the third consecutive week, the Bills have the opportunity to face a team that runs a 3-4 defense. Bills head coach Dick Jauron said last week -- when the team faced its second consecutive 3-4 -- was an unprecedented one for him. Well-prepared Buffalo managed to win the game, largely thanks to the fact it knew the intricacies of the Jets' alignment. Dallas' defense, ranked fifth in the league, could allow some big plays to the prodigious Edwards, the Bills' receivers and Lynch, who has over 300 ground yards and three touchdowns this year. Of course, that's not even mentioning the Bills' offensive line, a group that is progressing each week in all aspects of blocking. It wouldn't be much of a surprise is the Bills' front five manages to keep the Cowboys' rushers away from Edwards throughout the night.

3. Dallas might be looking ahead.

It's never acceptable for a pro football team to disrespect its opponent before or during a game, but it happens sometimes. The confident Cowboys, with undefeated New England coming up this weekend, could overlook the Bills or view them as nothing more than a tune-up opponent. When that happens, all bets are off. Just ask Michigan and Appalachian State.

Reasons for pessimism ...

1. The Cowboys' incredible offense against the Bills' ragtag defense.

Through the first four weeks of the season, the Cowboys have the top-ranked offense in the league. Meanwhile, the Bills possess the 32nd-ranked defense and have been torched by opposing offenses both through the air and on the ground.

Although Bills CB Jabari Greer was named the AFC defensive player of the week after his performance against the Jets, odds are Cowboys receiver Terrell Owens (19 catches, 19.1 yards per grab, three touchdowns) will accrue his fair share of stats. And if the rest of Buffalo's secondary -- CB Terrence McGee, SS Bryan Scott (first start this year) and FS Donte Whitner, among others -- focuses too much on Owens, sizzling QB Tony Romo (11 TDs) will pick the group apart with the NFC's best tight end, Jason Witten, and unheralded No. 2 wideout Patrick Crayton, who hauled in seven passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns in last week's 35-7 win over the toothless St. Louis Rams.

When Dallas doesn't pass, it has stellar RB Marion Barber III (6.4 yards per carry, four touchdowns) to lean on, and he'll face a 'D' that has already allowed three 100-yard rushers in 2007. Barber, like Lynch, is a downhill runner who utilizes his power and speed to the fullest, which is difficult for a defense of any skill level to contain.

To the credit of the Bills' defense, it bent but didn't break versus the Jets. Dallas' offense is a different animal, though. Buffalo's only hope is that returning defenders Anthony Hargrove (an end coming off a suspension) and Keith Ellison (a linebacker who had a high ankle sprain) make a substantial impact on a unit that has been troubled all year by injuries. If that happens, maybe -- just maybe -- the Bills can at least contain the Cowboys and make a game of it.

2. Edwards might fold.

These days, a rookie QB can look brilliant one week and awful the next. That's just how things are during a young passer's maturation process. Edwards, whose calm demeanor and on-field poise are palpable, could mimic his 10-of-20, 97-yard effort from two weeks ago (a 38-7 loss to New England) rather than the fantastic showing he had against New York. If the prime-time stage proves too great for Edwards at this point in his infantile career, Buffalo won't have any chance to stay within three touchdowns of the surging Cowboys, let alone win. Obviously, head coach Wade Phillips, formerly a successful sideline general with the Bills, will throw plenty of rushers, including star LB DeMarcus Ware, in Edwards' face. Edwards will have to use his patented quick release to avert pressure.

3. Dallas has been dominant this year.

Either way you slice it, beginning 4-0 is an impressive feat. However, starting the campaign by outscoring your opposition 151-72 makes the Cowboys' record that much more legitimate. Also, with each passing week, the amount of points Dallas' defense allows has decreased, from 35 to 20 to 10 to seven. Granted, the Cowboys' opponents are a combined 5-15, but there is no evidence yet that indicates the Bills deserve to be thought of as a good or even average team. That could change tonight, however.

Prediction (season record: 4-0) - Cowboys 34, Bills 20.

Buffalo, playing its first home Monday night game since 1994, will be buoyed by a rowdy group of fans and hang relatively close to the Cowboys, but expect the better team to eventually pull away and grab the victory.

E-mail: cbyrne@realfootball365.com.

RealFootball365.com: Five days per week, the place to go on the Internet for strong opinions on the Buffalo Bills.
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