The smart money on Broncos-Chiefs

By Os Davis  |   Friday, September 26, 2008  |  Comments( 4 )

Denver Broncos
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A bit gun-shy after taking a bath last week in betting a sizable fraction of the gambling bankroll on the Chicago Bears, this punter’s giving it a go again this week.

(After all, a pattern is beginning to emerge here: Week 3, loss; Week 2, win with the Buffalo Bills at the Jacksonville Jaguars; Week 1, loss on all things Oakland Raiders; Super Bowl, win with the New York Giants easily covering the spread. This week’s smart money is really smart money, to be sure!)

Commentary: If one game blasts screamingly of mismatch, it’s the early Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs matchup – all right, Buffalo at St. Louis will be a laugher, too, but we’re talking Broncos here.

Already bad for Chiefs fans, what with their team consistently mentioned in the same breath as those execrable Rams, certain trends in the lines make things look even worse than at first sight. Kansas City’s chances would generously appear to be between slim and none; of course, those dreaded words “emotional letdown game” bob happily to taunt those playing these lines; guess that’s why they call it gambling.

Over/under. On one hand, Kansas City has hit the under in four of its past six games going back to last year. On the other hand, one of the two exceptions was last week, when the not-really-so-mighty Atlanta Falcons ran up enough points (38) to win the over (36.5) themselves. The Chiefs kept the score against a stunned New England Patriots team in Week 1 and managed the under in Week 2 only by putting up a weak 8 points on the shaky Raiders. Kansas City has yet to face anything like the offensive monster that is Denver and the Broncos' defense is porous enough even for Damon Huard to connect on some TDs. The bet: Believe it or not, go over on the seemingly ridiculous 47 points posted; imagine 35-14 and it doesn’t seem so implausible.

The money line. Let’s see, Kansas City has lost 12 in a row straight up? And the Chiefs are bringing in their third starting quarterback in four games? And the ‘D’ has allowed an average of 358 total yards per game against low-watt offenses, while the Broncos have topped that total three times this season? And the Broncos are averaging more points (37) than the Chiefs have scored all year (32)? Sure, “any given Sunday” and all that, but even the worst of all emotional letdowns should still get Denver the win. The bet: Denver, at minus-200.

The point spread. Kansas City remains just 3-6 in covering the line in its last nine despite some outrageous spreads. And have no doubt plus-10.5 to the Chiefs is outrageous: Even the Rams are only getting spotted 8 points against the Bills this weekend. But here’s where the letdown might be evident: A couple of lazy touchdowns surrendered by the loose Denver ‘D’ (over 400 yards allowed and a dead-even turnover differential) and a bad bounce later, and the Broncos could fall behind by the time the fourth comes around. And a come-from-behind win over the Chiefs would easily count as a moral loss. The bet: Nope, none here.
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's...
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