BYU Cougars: Four keys to defeating New Mexico

By Todd Erickson  |   Friday, October 10, 2008  |  Comments( 0 )

BYU Cougars
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Last week’s sloppy 34-14 win over Utah State should help motivate BYU as the Cougars head into the final seven conference games of the season, with New Mexico first on tap this weekend.

Bronco Mendenhall’s players tend to play best when they have a chip on their shoulders. Certainly, getting pushed around by the Aggies during the fourth quarter last week (and the subsequent slight drop in their national ranking) left enough of a sour taste among the troops to trigger an appropriate course correction for the Lobo contest. Playing in Lavell Edwards Stadium in front of a standing room-only homecoming crowd won’t hurt the BYU performance, either, but predicted cold weather and snow showers could affect the Cougar passing attack and force a showdown between rushing games.

The short turnaround between Saturday’s clash with the Lobos and TCU on the road in Fort Worth next Thursday night also poses a potential distraction the Cougars must avoid. Despite its lack of a passing game, New Mexico is a dangerous foe that can slash and burn its way to a win with a relentless ground attack and opportunistic defense.

Four keys to defeating New Mexico

1. Limit the Lobos’ rushing attack to fewer than 150 yards. Nothing has been a more precise indicator of New Mexico’s success this year than its running game. The Lobos’ rushing attack has been dominating in each their three wins this season. They totaled 221 rushing yards against Arizona, 297 versus New Mexico State and 317 against Wyoming.

They also generated 216 yards on the ground against Texas A&M in a close 28-22 loss -- a game they would’ve won had it not been for four turnovers. Conversely, New Mexico was held to 56 yards on the ground in a loss to TCU and 126 rushing yards in a loss to Tulsa.

Thanks to minor injuries, three Lobo running backs have shared the rock in the first six games. Senior Rodney Ferguson is the veteran running back in the system, averaging 5.0 yards per carry on 104 attempts, but freshman James Wright could very well be the most dangerous New Mexico ball carrier. In two appearances this year, Wright has an incredible 9.7 yards per carry (18 rushes for 175 yards). Senior Paul Baker rounds out the trio, having logged 88 rushes for 344 yards (3.9 yards per carry) to date.

Regardless of how they mix and match their running back trio, if BYU holds the Lobos to fewer than 150 yards on the ground, the Lobos won’t be able to hold on to the ball enough to dictate the game tempo or score enough points to turn the contest on its head. With QB Donovan Porterie out for the count in 2008, backup Brad Gruner is averaging just 69.8 yards on 15 pass attempts per game.

2. Win the turnover battle. The Lobos’ lack of a serious passing game forces them to try and create advantages in other facets of the game. Rocky Long’s defenses are notoriously hard-hitting and opportunistic. New Mexico ranks second in the MWC with seven interceptions and it'll need to come up with at least two picks against the Cougars to frustrate the passing attack or plus-2 in other turnovers to shift and help maintain momentum on its side of the ball.

Max Hall will be pressured more than he has in previous games this year. He’ll need to protect the ball better and restrain himself from throwing into double and triple coverage like he did against the Aggies -- often in telegraphic fashion to his right side. Last week wasn’t the first time this season that he consistently neglected the left side of the gridiron where the 10- to 12-yard routes and safety valves have been wide open. That’s largely attributable to the temporary loss of senior receiver Michael Reed, who is now listed as probable for this Saturday.

Need convincing how important the turnover battle will be in this game? Here’s a crystal clear statistic to consider: The Lobos are minus-7 in turnovers in their three losses and plus-7 in their three wins.

3. Prevent big plays on special teams. New Mexico takes great pride in its special teams play and it's getting solid results so far this season in the returns category. Ian Clark leads the conference in punt returns with an outstanding average of 20.3 yards per runback. Teammate Glover Quin is second in kickoff returns in the MWC, averaging 33.6 yards. Franki Solomon chips in for the Lobos on kickoff returns with a solid 22.9-yard average.

BYU must contain New Mexico on special teams confrontations, considering any of these Lobo return men are capable of quickly shifting the game’s momentum by taking the pigskin to the house.

4. Get off to a fast start. The deeper into the game you allow an underdog to hang with you, the better their chances are for pulling off an upset. New Mexico has been a traditional slow starter this season, being outscored by its opponents 72-31 in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the Cougars have been absolutely overwhelming in the first half, outscoring the opposition 134-17 (59-10 in the first quarter).

The Washington game a month ago was the only time the Cougars have had to slug it out with someone in the fourth quarter. Through their first six games, the Lobos have outscored opponents 76-59 in the second half.

Another important reason to put the Lobos away early is the TCU game that’s lurking on the horizon next Thursday. It would be a welcome luxury to get the starters off the field as early as Mendenhall was able to in the UCLA and Wyoming games.

Prediction

The Lobos are not going to roll over as easily as previous home game opponents as long as they can prevent turning the ball over to the Cougars. New Mexico’s 3-3-5 defense will frustrate Hall early on, but Brigham Young’s offensive weapons are too potent and numerous to contain for an entire game. The weather could become a factor, mitigating BYU's passing game and rendering a lower scoring outcome. However, if there's a dry playing surface, it looks like BYU 38, New Mexico 20.

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About Todd Erickson

Todd Erickson is a member of the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) and pens the RealFootball365 Top 25 college football power rankings and "Fourth and inches..." weekly columns from August thru January. He is currently working on the second edition of Road to the Rose Bowl ...
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