MNF Pick: Broncos at Chargers

By Todd L. Frank  |   Monday, November 22, 2010  |  Comments( 0 )

San Diego Chargers
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The Chargers, with a record of 4-5, giving 9.5 points seems a bit high. I could see them putting it together and looking good on MNF and winning by 10 or more. Given how both of these teams can score in bunches, this should be an obvious over but 50.5 is pretty high. As bad as Denver has been since last year’s 6-0 start, and given the fact that the Broncos are just 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games against the Chargers, I just can’t trust a Norv Turner team giving that many points to a division opponent who can score in the passing game.

Assuming San Diego will score several times in this game, that means that many more kickoffs for Denver to potentially return for TD’s as the Chargers have struggled on special teams. The best bet is to just take the Over. So far this season, 6 of SD’s 8 games have gone Over, and the Over is 7-2 in their last 9 home games. For Denver, the over is 10-1 in last 11 vs. an AFC opponent, 7-1 in their last road games, 12-2 in their last 14 overall. In fact, in the last 8 meetings of these two teams, 6 games have gone Over.
I think the Chargers might be too much for the Broncos tonight, but the trends and style of play point to betting Over 50.5 as the safest play.
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