Can Manning alone overcome Johnson-led Chiefs?

By Clayton Wendler  |   Friday, January 05, 2007  |  Comments( 3 )

Kansas City Chiefs
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When the Kansas City Chiefs pass: Don't be fooled by Indianapolis' top-ranked pass defense. The unit isn't nearly that good. The statistic is completely skewed by the fact that Indy's opponents simply don't need to throw the ball around, given the Colts' awful run defense. When they do, the Colts have allowed them to complete over 64 percent of their passes, a rate that ranks 30th in the league.

The only problem for the Chiefs might be protecting Trent Green. The Colts have the edge rushers (Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis) to beat KC's offensive tackles all day long. John Welbourn against Mathis in particular has to be scaring Kansas City's coaching staff. Despite that, the old adage "if you don't stop the run, you don't get to rush the passer" probably applies here. It's unlikely that Freeney and Mathis will get many shots at Green. Tony Gonzalez is a huge mismatch for the Colts down the middle of the field. The Chiefs also made cornerback Jason David a victim in the last meeting between these two teams in 2004.


Edge: Even


When the Indianapolis Colts pass: Peyton Manning is heating up at the right time. In his last three games he's thrown for nine touchdowns and no interceptions, racking up over 700 yards. The return of tight end Dallas Clark paid dividends last week against Miami, also. The Chiefs have improved noticeably on pass defense this year, allowing only one 300-yard passer all season, but it's difficult to see them stopping Manning in the comfort of his own dome. The last time they faced him (at Arrowhead Stadium), they were able to get just enough pressure on Manning to make a difference.

The Chiefs will attempt to do that with superior talent this time (Derrick Johnson, Jared Allen, Tamba Hali), but this is the best offense they've seen all year. Ty Law, once known as Manning's worst nightmare, is unlikely to reprise that role. He's not capable of covering Marvin Harrison one-on-one anymore. The Chiefs will give up some yards. Where they must win is in holding the Colts out of the end zone, as they did against the St. Louis Rams' high-powered passing attack earlier this year.


Edge: Colts


When the Kansas City Chiefs run: This might be the biggest mismatch of the 2006 season. It's no great secret that the Colts have been giving up rushing yards at an astronomical rate this year, while Larry Johnson has been piling them up for the second year in a row. The Chiefs will likely start the game by running right at Indianapolis.

Pro Bowl guards Brian Waters and Will Shields will tee off on Indy's smallish defensive tackles all game long. Waters against Raheem Brock is an enormous mismatch. The Colts have enough speed to shut down Kansas City's outside running game (which hasn't been good this year), but it probably won't matter. The only positive for Indianapolis is the return of safety Bob Sanders, who is outstanding in run support.


Edge: Chiefs


When the Indianapolis Colts run: Rookie Joseph Addai has been an outstanding replacement for the departed Edgerrin James. The Colts really don't miss him at all, especially with Dominic Rhodes (who usually starts) filling in nicely. The Chiefs are capable of shutting down both runners, however.

Kansas City made some strides last week against a tough Jacksonville run game, and knows how to stop Indy's bread-and-butter: the stretch play. The Chiefs defended it well against the Denver Broncos in two games this year. How much respect the Chiefs give Manning will likely determine the success the Colts find in running the football.


Edge: Even


Special teams: The Chiefs are usually at a disadvantage in this area, but not this week. As marginal as KC's kickoff return and coverage units have been this season, the Colts are worse. Dante Hall hasn't been great this year but could easily break loose, perhaps even for a touchdown, in this game. Tony Dungy said Indianapolis would place some defensive starters on the coverage teams in an attempt to fix the problem. Kansas City also has a slight edge in kickers. It should be a pleasure to watch Dustin Colquitt punt in the ideal conditions of the RCA Dome. He led the league in net punting average this year.


Edge: Chiefs


Intangibles: The Chiefs have nothing to lose after miraculously making the playoffs. Because of their past playoff failures, there is a tremendous amount of pressure on the Colts. Chiefs head coach Herman Edwards is 1-1 lifetime against Colts head coach Tony Dungy, including a 41-0 playoff win.


Edge: Even


Prediction: The Chiefs field the superior defense, special teams and running game. The Colts have Peyton Manning. Is that enough? No. Manning needs more help than the Colts have provided in the playoffs. This time, every Indy defender will need help when they try to tackle Larry Johnson.


Chiefs 35, Colts 30
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CommentsComments: 3  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
fr8ttrain		02:48 PM
01/05/2007
35-30, a shootout eh? I am inclined to think so too. I am wondering along with you on the Manning factor. Will KC have long...
No.2
vhfreak		07:04 PM
01/05/2007
I think the colts will see alot of larry, and some of the trick plays that we finally started using last week. If the colts have...
No.3
Jody		01:53 AM
01/06/2007
Prediction: LJ 1 fumble 159 yards 2 TDs, Trent 2 TD's 2 pics(quarters 1 and 3). Gonzalez 9 catches 115 yarsds. Ty Law 1 pic for...
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