The Six-Shooter: Loading up for the regular season

By Lou DiPietro  |   Friday, August 22, 2008  |  Comments( 0 )

College Football
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The 2008 NCAA football season begins in under 10 days, and with a new year comes a new column! Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends, the Six-Shooter.

What is the Six-Shooter, you ask? I’ll take a look at a half-dozen stories, stats, games and players, among other things, that are the hot college football topics of the week. For the preseason edition it’s a lot more preview than review, but you can take a look at last year’s final regular-season edition of the Shooter from my previous escapades.

But for now, on with the show!

CONFERENCE TO WATCH IN 2008: Sun Belt

That might be kind of hard to do unless you subscribe to pay-per-view or actually live in said belt, but it’s a figure of speech anyway.

Long considered the whipping boy of Division I-A/FBS, the Sun Belt has come into its own lately. And looking at past efforts, it’s easy to see why beating up the Sun Belt was in style. In 2004, North Texas started 0-4 -- including three waxings from Big XII opponents, one of which was a tremendous 3-8 Baylor team -- before running the conference table. The next year, Sun Belt teams were a collective 6-27 outside of it and one of the squads that tied for the conference championship, 5-6 Louisiana-Monroe, wasn’t even bowl-eligible.

What a difference a recruiting class or two makes. Last year, the Belt had three bowl-eligible teams -- as many as the WAC and the MAC -- and stayed in some tough games. Louisiana-Monroe’s upset of Alabama led the way, but Troy also beat a bowl-bound Oklahoma State team, while Arkansas State held Texas to its lowest point total of the season and Middle Tennessee State had a 9-4 Virginia team on the ropes before succumbing.

This year, Florida Atlantic (8-5, 6-1 SB in 2007) is favored to repeat, as it returns 18 of 22 starters -- including QB Rusty Smith, who threw for 3,688 yards and 32 TDs in 2007. FAU is Texas’ designated Sun Belt opponent this year, and if the former can come close to what Arkansas State did last season, it could make some noise. Michigan State and a terrible Minnesota team are also winnable games, so a nine-victory season isn’t out of the cards. Troy’s brutal early season schedule (the Trojans start at Middle Tennessee State and then go to both LSU and Ohio State) could demoralize them. One other game to watch: A marquee team -- Arkansas -- actually comes to the Belt on Sept. 6 to face Louisiana-Monroe.

CONFERENCE TO TURN OFF IN 2008: WAC

Sure, the WAC will always be the exciting, high-scoring, run-and-gun-type league. But this season, there might be more blanks in those guns than in recent years.

Hawaii shocked the world last year by running the table en route to a Sugar Bowl berth, where it was promptly pounded into sugarcane by Georgia. Boise State and Fresno State were no slouches, either; only a fluke loss to Washington prevented a matchup of unbeatens in the BSU/Hawaii game last year, while Fresno’s “other” defeats were a heartbreaker against then-No. 21 Texas A&M and a loss to then-No. 19 Oregon a week later.

This year, however, things are different. New Hawaii coach Greg McMackin inherits a team that lost record-setting QB Colt Brennan and 13 other starters, most of them on offense. The Rainbow Warriors also have to go to both Fresno and Boise this year, and they start at The Swamp against a Florida team that many predict will win it all.

Boise, meanwhile, has a redshirt freshman QB at the helm, and with games against Rutgers, UCLA and Wisconsin in September, Fresno State could be 1-3 before conference play even begins. None of the other WAC teams were marginally good in 2007, but with inexperience and tough schedules all around, it could be a down year in the OK Corral.

TEAM TO WATCH OUT FOR: Connecticut

You could almost consider this a homer pick – that is, if I cared about UConn football. But living in New England, I see a lot of them, and I like what I see. You may ask how a team that went 9-3 and tied for the Big East championship last year is in any way underrated. Well, I’ll bet you a lot of people didn’t know that fact.

UConn returns 17 starters – including QB Tyler Lorenzen and RB Daniel Brown – in a conference where the teams ahead of them lost at least one significant piece. The defense is a little inexperienced, but so is West Virginia’s – and UConn isn’t replacing a monster RB or a head coach. The Huskies' only two conference losses in 2007 were to West Virginia (missing Steve Slaton and Rich Rodriguez this year) and Cincinnati (which lost QB Ben Mauk and its three-headed RB monster), and they have a chance to avenge their last-second one-point defeat to Virginia – but this time, it’s in East Hartford.

This year, they get Cincy and West Virginia at home as well, and their nonconference schedule should be 4-1 at worst. I’m not saying UConn will go 12-0 and play for the national title, but a nine- or 10-win season isn't out of the question. Not bad for a team many pundits are picking to finish close to the bottom of the Big East.

TEAM THAT CAN’T BE BETTER THAN LAST YEAR: LSU

Obviously Hawaii won’t go 12-1 again, but I already went over them in the WAC preview. So, I make a somewhat more controversial and less sexy pick here in the defending national champions.

First of all, they were one of the luckiest teams to win a BCS national championship ever. Every break went the Tigers' way at the end of the season, culminating with West Virginia and Missouri both losing their final games. Sure, you can say LSU had to win the SEC championship game with a backup QB, or that both of its losses were in OT; the fact remains, though, that Ryan Perrilloux wasn’t exactly a novice back there and the Tigers still did lose twice.

This year, you shouldn’t have to worry. Gone are several offensive starters, including the Tigers' leading rusher and receiver, as well as dominant DT Glenn Dorsey. Perrilloux was dismissed from the team, so the starting QB will end up being someone who has never taken a snap in Baton Rouge. Plus, their schedule is quite unkind: They have to go to Auburn and Florida, and on Oct. 25, they must face a Georgia team (currently ranked No. 1, by the way) that is probably still a little sore from the SEC title game.

At best, this is a 12-2 team once again; this time, however, the 12th win won’t be for the BCS championship.

TEAM THAT CAN’T BE WORSE THAN LAST YEAR: Minnesota

Five teams finished 1-11, with the Golden Gophers being the “marquee” name on that list. However, they did something that Duke, Florida International, Idaho and SMU didn’t: They lost at home to a Division I-AA, er, FCS team. Granted, North Dakota State was 10-1, but Minnesota is a BCS team that was embarrassed by a squad that was in Division II five years ago.

In fact, Minnesota's only win last year was a double-overtime squeaker against Miami (Ohio) – a team that finished 6-7 in the MAC – in a game where it gave up 16 points in the final 6:31. Say what you want about Idaho’s sole win being against Cal Poly, but at least it beat them. I suppose the Gophers could finish 0-12 (or 1-11 and lose to Montana State), but it’s highly unlikely they'll look as bad as they did last year.

THE FINAL GUN: Three Questions

-Can Tim Tebow repeat as Heisman Trophy winner?

Yes. The odds are seemingly against him; there’s surely no way he can have another season like 2007, and only one man has ever done it. But Florida is a legit national title contender, and if he’s the best player on the best team, he could get the vote.

-Is this season it for Joe Paterno and/or Bobby Bowden?

No one knows for sure – probably even Bowden or Paterno – but I’d guess yes for at least one. Florida State has been down the last few years and Penn State looks poised to enter a down period. Now might be the perfect time to let an underling take over and rebuild.

-Who will win the BCS national championship?

The preseason top five has a tough road ahead. USC plays Ohio State on Sept. 13. The World's Greatest Cocktail Party, meanwhile, is on Nov. 1 and Oklahoma has Texas and Kansas back to back in mid-October. Nine of the preseason top 14 are from the Big XII or SEC, so it’s going to be tough for any of the latter three to get to January unscathed. USC has its three toughest opponents and Notre Dame at home, while Florida has an easier SEC schedule than Georgia. Oklahoma could sneak in, but Missouri is poised to be in the same position it was last year – 11-1 with a chance to knock off the big dogs in the Big XII championship.

Because I have to make a pick, I will say the Orange Bowl pits USC against Florida, and my favoritism bias gives Tebow & Co. their second title in three years.

Hey, it’s my gun, after all.
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About Lou DiPietro

Lou DiPietro is an accomplished freelance writer who is fascinated with all things sports. In addition to his duties at RealFootball365.com, Lou contributes to TheBleacherReport.com and Pro Wrestling Illustrated magazine, and has been featured on "The Sports Buffet with Matt West" on 1080-AM ESPN...
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