Even if they win, Gators might not get in

By Bart Doan  |   Thursday, December 04, 2008  |  Comments( 5 )

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To most, this weekend’s SEC title game between Alabama and Florida will be somewhat of a national championship playoff. It's perceived that the winner will ascend into the coveted spot of being a participant in the BCS title game in Miami (that's at least true for top-ranked Alabama). For the BCS and its computers, however, this game might be nothing more than a chance to knock off the current No. 1 team in the nation and ruin its dreams. It is borderline preposterous to think that 12-1 Florida, champion of the suddenly constantly trumpeted SEC conference, would be left out in the cold, but reality says that it is not as far-fetched as it looks.

How? The Gators would have to make up an incredible amount of ground in the polls to offset how the computers feel about them. It's ground that beating the presently unbeaten Crimson Tide might not be able to cover. The SEC’s weak showing in nonconference games last weekend left only three of the conference’s teams ranked, two of which play this weekend. In addition to that, Alabama’s overall schedule strength is ranked 88th in the nation, horribly low considering where the team thought it would be when the season started. That, however, is only half of the perilous equation for Urban Meyer’s Gators.

The other caveat lies in the fact that Florida is so far below Texas that it’s questionable just how much the win would help the Gators. They sit at an .885 BCS average, in fact, while Texas is in the clubhouse waiting with a .922 mark. The only thing helping the Gators is the fact that they play one more game. The question is: In places where the Gators sag immensely to Texas like the coaches poll, would just a win be enough to make up the ground needed to pass Texas and avoid a Red River Rematch for the title should Oklahoma take care of business against Missouri?

Though no one around the BCS really wants to talk about it, there is a strong possibility that serious coach voting manipulation will need to be done to plug the Gators into one of the top two spots should they win, which they are favored to do. Even in doing so, this would be the third consecutive season that a final coaches poll vote would designate half of the title game (with a team previously ahead in the polls being bumped down despite not losing). In 2006, Michigan was jumped by Florida in the final coaches poll after the Gators got by Arkansas in the SEC title game. Last season, LSU was ranked No. 7 going into the final game of the season and jumped both Georgia and Virginia Tech, the latter of which spent that same weekend winning a conference title. Can the BCS really afford to be determined by coaches with a weekly agenda?

Coming into the season, it was talked about that the relative strength of the SEC would afford possibly even an extra loss to its conference champion when it came down to number crunching for the final polls. My, how things have changed only five months later. Now it is possible that the SEC champ will need to go politicking once again for a spot to play for a title. Once again, Florida may be relying on the relative desire of poll voters to not see another rematch betwixt two conference teams. For Gator Nation, they can only hope and pray the end result is the same as last time.
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About Bart Doan

Bart has been with Realfootball365.com for about six months and thoroughly enjoys writing for the site. He has been featured for his writings on college football in The Sporting News, The Indianapolis Star, Sports Illustrated, and on CBS Sportsline.com. When he's not drowning himself in the...
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