Free New Year’s Day Bowl Picks

By Todd L. Frank  |   Thursday, December 31, 2009  |  Comments( 0 )

College Football
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West Virginia -2.5 vs. Florida State
Gator Bowl, 1pm New Years Day

Interesting matchup as the Gator Bowl gifted an invite to a not-so-deserving 6-6 Florida State team so Bobby Bowden could coach is final game in the state of Florida. Sometimes emotion, etc, like WIN IT FOR BOBBY can certainly have an effect, but I still think the Mountaineers can take 'em. I can envision them still slobbering Bobby's bone the whole time about "today might not be his day, but this guy's a legend" blah blah blah.

At some point, the game is played by the players. West Virginia might be respectful/aware of the Bowden stuff (he once coached WVU years ago), but they will still PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. All the sappy Bobby stuff can’t will a weaker team with a freshman QB to win against a better opponent.

Obviously at 6-6, FSU was/is not that good and they play in a relatively weak conference. Of course some say the same about the Big East but I think the Big East is a bit underrated and they seem to do well in bowls. They used to always lose their bowl games in the old days, but WVU is 2-0 straight up and against the spread over the last couple years. In fact, WVU is 4-0 in its last four bowl games, its last loss coming to Florida State in the Gator Bowl in 2005. The Mountaineers were able to upset heavily favored Georgia in the 2006 Sugar Bowl in Atlanta in front of a predominately red and black clad crowd, so they have experience winning what feels like a “road” bowl game.

Sure, lots of crowd support for FSU in Jacksonville, just 2 hours from Tallahassee, but remember WVU fans travel very well, especially in Florida. West Virginia has 23 players from Florida (many passed over by FSU) so they'll be ready to go. Also, I think WVU on will want to show the world on New Year’s Day that they are good. Not just for recruiting, but for all the talk in recent/future years about how an undefeated Big East team just isn't as deserving of being in the BCS Championship Game as the undefeated from the SEC/BIG10/BIG12/PAC10 for some reason.

And of course ALL the focus will be on the Bowden suckfest. So, 1, the FSU players have the pressure to win a game they should otherwise lose, and 2, WVU will have that chip on their shoulder like "hey y'all forgot there's another team playing here today!"

The point spread opened at 3, now at 2.5. I think this one is a good safe bet for WVU to win by 4 or more. Take West Virginia and give the points.

BONUS FREE BOWL PICK: take Oregon -4 against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
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