Betting the BCS Championship Game

By Todd L. Frank  |   Monday, January 10, 2011  |  Comments( 1 )

College Football
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Auburn Tigers vs. Oregon Ducks: Over/Under 74.5

This could be considered a contrarian play. The whole world has been waiting a month to be the Over in this game. Two big-time high-scoring offenses squaring off for the National Championship. Most public bettors love the Over, and most nationally televised games like Monday Night Football and bowl games tend to see more action on the Over. Well the Total on this one is set at a whopping 74.5. Sure, a simple 41-35 or 44-31 game would send it over the total, and these two teams each average 40+ points per game (Oregon averages 49.3 and Auburn averages 42.7). While both teams are certainly capable of playing that type of game, I expect a championship contest to be played a little close to the vest. The long layoff means offenses might take a few series to get their timing back. All these young guys will be tight and nervous, no matter how relaxed and focused they might claim to be.

Can’t you just picture the announcers lamenting how everyone expected a shootout and it’s more of a defensive struggle than the experts predicted? Keep in mind that Oregon’s defense only gives up 18.4 points per game, while Auburn is yielding 24.5. Let’s say the each give up a TD more than their average, that would still only total about 57 points.

I know this Over/Under is set so high for a reason. This won’t be a 13-10 slugfest. But 74.5? Really? I think there’s too much value in the Under. Wait as long as you can, maybe this one moves up to 75.5 as all the action pours in on the Over. The Best Bet is the Under.
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