Are We Celebrating the Wrong D?

By Hugo Guzman | Thursday, November 17, 2005 | ( 0 )

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Teams evaluated the performances within the performances every Saturday. For instance, Team X lost, but held Team Y (who's third in scoring offense this year) to 10 points. What I urge fans, homer and educated alike, is to try to measure the strength of each individual's ranking. To care about statistics in football, at least these kinds of statistics, is no better than saber metrics in baseball.

Plain and simple, some defenses give up yards between the 20s, but will not break in the red zone. Plain and simple, some stats are misleading.

I'll use the latest example worthy of that heartburn feeling. Sportswriters (this handsome man at the keyboard exempted) are making a big to-do about Texas rushing for 326 yards against Kansas, former owners of the �top-rated run defense" in the country. At first glance, it makes sense to shoot Mack Brown and the gang a big kudos for a job well done (forget the fact that he left his starters in until the grounds' crew started their post game field maintenance). As Lee Corso would say �not so fast, my friend."

Let's look at what led Kansas to get the title of �best run defense". For one, they play in the �one contender, rest pretender" Big Twelve Conference. The most striking reason Kansas stops the run, is because the teams they play flat out can't run. Don't believe me? Are you one of those guys that thinks the Pac-10 is a pass heavy soft conference? Try this stat out: The Big Twelve has only one 1,000 yard rusher. One! The Pac-10? Four. Shocked? I was as well. The only major conference with more 1,000 yard rushers is the Big Ten, who has five (and two knocking on the door). The SEC? One. The ACC? One.

Looking at things this way, defense has a lot to do with who you are trying to stop. For those who call the Pac-10 soft, let's dig a bit deeper. Most would assume the pass heavy Pac-10 have the most 1,000 yard receivers, but surely someone else has a few. Well, the stats indicate there are four 1,000 receivers in the major BCS conferences. All of them are in the Pac-10.

Are the SEC's defenses so good that no one in their conference can score or rack up yardage? Sure the Ds are good, but unless every player on the cupcakes (Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt) is legitimate pro material, the odds are the offenses aren't that potent either.

Let's go back to the Kansas thing. Shall we peek at what RBs they've had to stop this year? Not a single running back over a thousand yards. Not one elite back, unless you count Texas' backs, but their running is based on the fact their quarterback has 714 yards himself on the ground. The best runner Kansas faced was also a QB, Missouri's Brad Smith, who is the only guy in the conference to go over 1000 yards with his feet (although I'm sure Vince Young will as well so long as Mack keeps playing him in garbage time). Still, to spread an offense, to make it truly lethal, there needs to be someone lining up as a running back that's a true ground threat.
My main point is that Kansas had a stellar run defense ranking because they've played some very anemic run games in what is a weak conference in general. With Oklahoma sinking into obscurity, it's truly a one horse race. Many argue that's the same in the Pac-10, but allow me to give a medieval battle analogy. Ready? Here we go�

On the field of battle, offense is a sword and defense is a shield. As the pure numbers show, the Pac-10 has a lot of 1,000-yard threats (big swords). Sure the Pac-10 Ds are going to get banged up! Every week some wideout or running back saunters in waving a giant Excalibur like it's a cardboard tube. In Kansas' case, their shield looked impenetrable because it was being attacked with Nerf bats until Texas (they, in fact have a sword and we shall call it Vince) came to town. There are certainly soft Ds in the Pac-10, but they look worse than they are when meat cleavers, trebuchets, and maces attack their spongy shields every week. Okay, enough battle imagery. I'll end up watching Braveheart and eating Chinese take out, and that's not good for business right now. The Big Z needs to pay the bills.

With all this in mind, I urge you, the inquiring sports fanatic (the kind that reads this stuff at work then goes home to argue about it with roommates until you find yourself back at work reading this stuff...) to stop worrying about stats so much. They are good for sports casters and writers, but if you want to know what kind of brass a team has, watch them play.

I'll leave with one last example. Troy Polamalu was a beast at USC. We all saw it at games and knew he was something special. He ended up a second round pick, but to no one's surprise, he was in the Pro Bowl in his second season. He didn't lead the league in anything other than heart.

Remember, stats don't play games. Men do.

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