Sooners, Seminoles richest of the rich?

By Darrell Laurant  |   Thursday, June 15, 2006  |  Comments( 21 )

College Football
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There is no parity in college football, and never will be, for the simple reason that you can't tell a high school senior where to go to college.

Therefore, the rich always get richer. Blue chip prospects want to go where they can be seen on national TV and by pro scouts, and it doesn't hurt when you can sit in a prospect's drafty January living room in the shivering Northeast or Upper Midwest and pull out pictures of your palm-lined campus.

True, it's sometimes possible for outsiders to crash this exclusive party. Sometimes, an innovative coach can elevate a program on the sheer strength of an effective offensive or defensive system. Urban Meyer did that at Utah, Mike Leach and Rich Rodriguez are doing it at Texas Tech and West Virginia, and Steve Spurrier seems to be on the cusp of making South Carolina a team to be reckoned with.

Or, a school can put together one shining season based on the fortunate signing of a couple of great players, then use that as a stepladder to perennial success. Virginia Tech, with its 1999 Michael Vick squad, comes to mind.

Generally, though, the same programs rise to the top year after year -- which doesn't keep predicting a final Top 25 in the spring from being a crapshoot. One problem is that the best teams tend to play in the best conferences, where they have to face other top teams. Many a national championship has gone down the tubes after a narrow defeat to a league or strong inter-league opponent -- Penn State lost on the final play to Michigan last year, for instance, while Texas edged Ohio State and Southern Cal squeaked by Notre Dame in similar fashion.

Key games this year include the Texas-Ohio State rematch, the Red River Shootout between Texas and Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Michigan, Auburn and Florida, Florida and Florida State, Ohio State and Michigan and about a dozen others that could go either way -- depending, perhaps, on which team has a key starter injured.

Given all that, though, here's one opinion of how a final poll might shake out. Take it for what it's worth.

1. OKLAHOMA. Two words: Adrian Peterson. It says something about the Sooners' star running back that his 1,104 rushing yards last season were written off as a bad year. He's 100 percent now, and able to take over a game single-handedly. The nice thing for the Sooners is, he doesn't have to. QB Rhett Bomar showed definite signs of growth late in the season, and C.J. Ah You, Calvin Thibodeaux (how did LSU let him get away?) and Rufus Alexander spark a nasty defense that returns eight starters. Assuming Peterson stays healthy and the Sooners can overcome Texas, Bob Stoops should be back in the BCS picture.

2. FLORIDA STATE. This doesn't necessary mean that the Seminoles are the second-best team in the country, but the ACC is a little down this season, and if the Seminoles can get past Miami early, they should outclass the rest of the league on offensive firepower alone. Then, they'll have Florida at home in the season finale. Sophomore QB Drew Weatherford seems to have gotten all the mistakes out of his system last season, the O-line is better able to protect him, and the defense reloaded. Sophomore RB Antone Smith had a spectacular spring, and Andre Fluellen, Myron Rolle and Buster Davis will be heard from on the other side of the ball.

3. WEST VIRGINIA. Given the relative weakness of the Mountaineers' schedule, it should all come down to their Big East meeting at Louisville in November. And even though that game is on the road, I'm betting that Rodriguez's explosive spread offense will be too much for the Cardinal defense to handle. Running back Steve Slaton is the most explosive offensive weapon west of Adrian Peterson, Owen Schmitt could be the best fullback in the country, C Dan Mozes is a pre-season All-American, and the defense should be OK as long as it doesn't have to spend too much time on the field. QB Pat White, an Alabaman stolen from SEC company, is always a threat to run -- and if he wants to pass, he has two speedy Brandon's, Myles and Barrett, to play catch with.

4. MICHIGAN. It would be a monumental achievement for the Wolverines to run the table against a rugged Big Ten schedule, but it's not impossible. Simply put, the Wolverines are loaded. Offensive stars Chad Henne (QB), Mike Hart (RB), Kevin Grady (RB), Steve Breaston (WR/KR) and Mario Manningham (WR) are back, and eight starters return on defense, including pre-season All-America CB Leon Hall. The problem is the schedule -- at Notre Dame, at Penn State, at Ohio State. Could this be the right team at the wrong time? Or a team of destiny for Lloyd Carr?

5. LSU. Oklahoma and West Virginia might have the country's best running back quality in Peterson and Slaton, but the Bayou Bengals trump them in quantity -- Alley Broussard and Justin Vincent will both be performing in the NFL someday, and newcomer Keiland Williams (if he even plays as a freshman) has been compared to, ahem, Reggie Bush. LSU also has three top-drawer quarterbacks in JaMarcus Russell (who missed spring ball with an injury), Matt Flynn (who led the Bengals to a bowl game rout of Miami) and Ryan Perrilloux (prep player of the year two years ago). If only they could trade some of those guys for a few defensive players, but the LSU stop unit still has All-America caliber DB LaRon Landry.

6. TEXAS. The Longhorns didn't just curl up and die when QB Vince Young took a million dollar walk to Nashville and RB/WR Ramonce Taylor was busted for pot -- they still have perhaps the best corps of receivers and linebackers in the country, a strong offensive line and solid running backs in Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young. The big question mark, obviously, is whether new quarterbacks Colt McCoy or Jevan Snead can develop in time to match up with Ohio State on Sept. 9. My guess is that a home field advantage and the relative inexperience of the Buckeyes' rebuilt defense will trump a fearsome OSU offense and the Longhorns' uncertainty at QB. But who knows?

7. SOUTHERN CAL. The Trojans had a dreadful off-season, even beyond the hangover of losing to Texas in the Rose Bowl. Heisman Twins Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush left for the pros, as did O-line star Winston Justice, secondary leader Darnell Bing, RB LenDale White, TE Dominique Byrd and a couple of other starters. WR Dwayne Jarrett, part of a scary receiving corps, got caught up in the Reggie Bush scandal. Leinart heir apparent John David Booty hurt his back, backup Mark Sanchez was charged with sexual assault. So is this the end of the Trojans' hammerlock on the Pac-10? Not necessarily, because Pete Carroll's team has still stockpiled more talent than anyone else in the league -- even if another undefeated season seems unlikely.

8. OHIO STATE. We're assuming, here, that the Buckeyes will lose to both Texas and Michigan -- no sure thing, by any means. Not with Heisman candidate QB Troy Smith throwing to Anthony Gonzalez and handing off to Antonio Pittman and freshman stud Chris Wells. The immediate problem is, the Buckeyes sent all three starting linebackers and three of four DB's to the NFL, and melding new players into that unit is going to take time.

9. AUBURN. Playing in the SEC, the Tigers will be hard-pressed to win 10 games. Still, the Tigers have a nice team, returning five starters on offense and six on defense. Kenny Irons is one of the better ball-carriers in the league, Brandon Cox brings experience to QB, and David Irons (Kenny's brother) and LB Will Herring spark a potentially dominant defense.

10. PENN STATE. The Nittany Lions took a serious hit on graduation day, but plenty of talent remains. While departed QB Michael Robinson was outstanding, the PSU coaches seem even more excited about replacement Anthony Morelli -- less nimble, but a better passer. He'll have Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood as targets (Williams emerged as probably the best freshman receiver in the country last season before breaking his arm), and 1,000-yard rusher Tony Hunt for balance. All-America LB Paul Posluszny is back, but only four other starters on defense. Joe Paterno's problem is that two of his biggest games -- Ohio State and Notre Dame -- come in the first four weeks, when Morelli may still be feeling his way.

11. FLORIDA. Like all the aforementioned teams, Urban Meyer's Gators are capable of winning a national title. If they don't, they can blame whoever drew up a schedule that gives them Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Georgia in successive weeks. The only saving grace is that three of these games are at home, but the Gators also have to travel to Tennessee and to Florida State in the season finale. Chris Leak returns for his final season at quarterback, but was pushed hard in the spring by freshman Tim Tebow. Running back was an aggravation for Meyer last year, and TB DeShawn Wynn has been criticized for a lack of toughness. That's not a question with linebackers Brandon Siler and Earl Everett, though -- they're two of the best in the country.

12. NOTRE DAME. At least no one can accuse the Fighting Irish of scheduling a pack of dogs. Charlie Weis' team opens at Georgia Tech -- certainly no walk in the park -- and the rest of the schedule includes Michigan, Michigan State, Southern Cal, UCLA and Penn State. Touchdown Jesus aside, it's going to take divine intervention to survive a minefield like that. Nevertheless, QB Brady Quinn has enough to keep the Irish in every game -- if Adrian Peterson doesn't win the Heisman, chances are Quinn will. Darius Walker returns as the leading rusher, and Maurice Crum Jr. and Tom Zbikowski anchor a defense with nine returning starters. If the Irish finish 12-0, Weis might be nominated for sainthood while he's still alive.

13. TCU. The key game for the Horned Frogs, as far as national aspirations, will be Sept. 16 -- at home against Texas Tech. If they can somehow shutdown (or at least outscore) Tech's high-octane offense, 13th place could be selling them short. TCU returns two 1,000-yard rushers (Robert Merrill and Aaron Brown), QB Jeff Ballard (1,800 passing yards in 2005, 8-0 as a starter), leading receiver Cory Rodgers and defensive stalwarts Jason Phillips, Chase Ortiz and Tommy Blake. Losing four offensive line starters could be the glitch in this machine.

14. MIAMI. One of the usual suspects for a national title, Miami will have to get over its lopsided loss to LSU in the postseason in time to face Florida State in its opener. On the bright side, the Hurricanes have QB Kyle Wright back and better, Greg Olsen appears to be the latest in the school's run of superstar tight ends, WR Lance Leggett should rebound from a sub par 2005 and Tyrone Moss will be one of the ACC's better running backs if he's recovered from a torn ACL suffered last season. And now that the usual spring shuffling is over, we can expect the usual surly defense.

15. MICHIGAN STATE. Drew Stanton may the most underrated quarterback in college football, throwing for 3,077 yards last season. He can run, too. And speaking of running, coach John L. Smith thinks Javon Ringer will be the best back ever to play at MSU. That's a nice start, but the Spartan defense was anything but Spartan in 2005, surrendering yardage faster than Stanton & Co. could pile it up (410 yards per outing). Michigan St. upset Notre Dame early, but lost five of its last six and stayed home during the post-season. The defense, with six starters back, swears it's better. We'll see.

16. NEBRASKA. Like the SEC and Big Ten, the Big XII is loaded at the top this season. The Cornhuskers, for example, return eight starters on offense and seven on defense. QB Zac Taylor (from Norman, OK, of all places) is among the best in the Big 12, while Marion Lucky and Cody Glenn appear more than adequate replacements for Cory Ross at running back. The Huskers also return their leading receiver (the aptly named Nate Swift), tackler (Corey McKeon) and sack man (Adam Carriker, 9.5). Unfortunately, Texas returns to the schedule and the Huskers travel early in the season to face USC.

17. LOUISVILLE. Two Big East teams in the Top 20? Count on it. But while Louisville returns 15 starters, the Cardinals lost difference-maker Elvis Dumervil (20 sacks) at defensive end, their top receiver and three offensive line stalwarts. Plus, QB Brian Brohm is coming off knee surgery. Still, Brohm appears to be getting healthy, backup Hunter Cantwell has an even stronger arm, and monster running back Michael Bush (250 pounds plus) is back to punish defenses. Will this be enough to beat West Virginia and/or Miami? I'm thinking it won't.

18. GEORGIA TECH. Could this be the year "Reggieball" becomes a national catch phrase? So far, QB Reggie Ball has shown only flashes of his potential during his time in Atlanta, but injuries and illnesses have been part of the problem. Star RB P.J. Daniels has gone to the pros, but Oklahoma transfer Tashard Choice should step right in and WR Calvin Johnson has pro scouts drooling. The Yellow Jackets return nine starters back on offense, but lost leading tackler Gerris Wilkinson and all-conference DB Dawan Landry on the D.

19. TEXAS TECH. The quarterback position in Lubbock is still up in the air, so to speak, but whether Graham Harrell or Chris Todd winds up as the starter, they'll be a high draft pick in fantasy leagues. The Red Raiders traditionally lead the nation in passing yardage, and a flock of prolific receivers (led by Joel Filani) return. The jury is still out on whether Shannon Woods will be a proper replacement for the graduated Taurean Henderson at RB, and the defense has some major holes.

20. ALABAMA. The Crimson Tide had the nation's top scoring defense in 2005, but linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Freddie Roach -- the heart of that unit -- are gone. So is QB Brodie Croyle, who has been replaced by John Park Wilson. This year may tell if 'Bama's celebrated defensive system is stronger than its individual parts. Meanwhile, RB Kenneth Darby is one of the SEC's best. If WR Tyrone Prothro returns from a debilitating injury, the Tide could make a run at a West Division title.

21-25: Texas A&M, Oregon, Georgia, Iowa, Arizona State.

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