Colts versus Chargers: exciting chess

By Anthony Bialy  |   Monday, January 07, 2008  |  Comments( 8 )

Indianapolis Colts
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The easiest path for the Colts to the Final Four would be if San Diego assumes its opponent will play just as wretchedly as they did during the two teams' first tilt of the season. I'm going to go ahead and boldly portend that to be a doubtful probability, as overconfidence won't be the Chargers' biggest problem. Instead, the visitors, now on a seven-game winning streak, will have to figure out how to surpass the point total of a Colts team that is also clicking lately.

Peyton Manning has played 160 regular-season games, not coincidentally the same number of contests in which his team has competed during his 10 years in the NFL, and his Veterans' Day effort against these same Chargers was his worst. His abysmal 49.4 rating in that clash, paired with a barely superior 52.0 the next week as the Colts squeaked by Kansas City, will baffle football scientists a century from now.

But those were Indianapolis' two games after its New England loss, and dealing with a hangover after being beaten by the 16-0 gang was a league-wide malady. The most notable fact has been noted by few since those two Colt losses and one weak win: They've been steadily climbing from that point since, winning the next five before dropping the utterly meaningless season finale.

Granted, the Colts beat frail teams like the Raiders and Falcons in that time, but they can only take care of the teams scheduled. Plus, it's tricky to stay focused when a one seed is impossible to achieve and a two seed is a not certain but practically definite lock, and this squad accomplished that task in part by, say, beating a tough Jaguars team and trouncing a dilapidated Ravens franchise.

On top of that, they of course managed the victory streak without the inestimably fantastic Marvin Harrison, and the prospect of his return has to please fans, if only so they can stop asking when he'll finally be back after an excruciating wait and lack of details about his injury. The deep receiving aspect remained functional in his absence largely thanks to Reggie Wayne filling the void and Anthony Gonzalez catching 37 passes in an impressive rookie showing.

The middling Charger pass defense conceded a 14th-best 213.2 yards per game on average through the air during the regularly scheduled games, so Harrison's return would allow the Colts to focus on their traditional emphasis of winning through passing. At the same time, by letting adversaries rush for 107 yards every outing, San Diego was also hovering right around the league's middle in that category, finishing 16th. So, Joseph Addai will be sort of taking Harrison's place if the receiver is still unable to return, trying to exploit and overwhelm the other similarly average facet of the Bolts' defensive corps.

Still, San Diego poses a challenge in that its wild-card game victory over Tennessee, where it held the Titans to six points, was an anomaly: The Chargers are more proficient at outgunning foes. They scored 412 points in 2007, fifth in the league, while Indianapolis came in third with 450.

This game will be less like a typical chess match and more like a chess match between monkeys who just shared a pot of coffee plus some Red Bulls and Amps, as an action-jammed, uninhibited game with pieces flying is a likelihood between two juggernaut offenses.

Indianapolis should feel confident that, besides the obvious manifestation of superiority reflected by the better regular season record it achieved than the Chargers, the experience of recent playoff success along with the potential return of its future Hall of Fame wideout and steady presence of their all-time great quarterback is enough to tip the balance.
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