2007 Dolphins:  How bad were they really?

By Joe Mayes  |   Wednesday, April 09, 2008  |  Comments( 1 )

Miami Dolphins
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For much of the 2007 season, the question surrounding the Miami Dolphins was not whether or not they were bad. That much was pretty well established by the halfway point of the season when they had lost every game by an average of more than 10 points. The question wasn’t even whether they were historically bad. When you tie the all-time record for number of losses in a season, you’ve made history, and not in a good way.

The real question around the league last year was whether or not the Dolphins were the worst team in the history of professional football.

Breathe easy, Dolphin fans: they weren’t. In fact, the Dolphins probably weren’t as bad as their 1-15 record would indicate. Following are some reasons why things may not be as bad as they looked -- and a couple more that may indicate otherwise.

First, the Dolphins played the toughest schedule in the AFC and the fourth toughest in the NFL. Miami’s opponents had a collective winning percentage of .539 (138-118) in 2007. This would be a challenge for any team but especially for a team trying to build on the fly as the Dolphins were last year.

Even against this brutal schedule, six of the Dolphins losses were by just three points. Of those six, three were against playoff teams (Giants, Redskins, and Steelers) and two more were against teams that were in the playoff hunt until late in the season (Texans and Bills). Swing half of those 3-point losses to the win column and it would be St Louis is on the clock rather than Miami.

But despite these close losses, and even factoring in the Dolphins lone win against an underachieving Baltimore squad, the Dolphins were still outscored by an average of more than 10 points per game (27.3 ppg compared to 16.7).

Still, there was good news and bad news on the offensive side of the ball. The good news is that the Dolphins ran more offensive plays from scrimmage than their opponents, 989 (61.8 per game) compared to 983 (61.4 per game) for the opposition.

The bad news is that it didn’t do them much good.

Opposing teams gained nearly a full yard per play more than the Dolphins (5.6 yards per play for the opposition, 4.7 ypp for the Dolphins), with Miami finishing the year ranked 26th in the NFL (14th in the AFC) in net yards gained with 4,600. They ranked 23rd in rushing yards per game (98.1 ypg), 24th in passing yards per game (207.4 ypg), and 26th in scoring (267 total, 16.7 ppg). Conversely, the Dolphins allowed 437 points (27.3 ppg) in 2007, bad enough for 30th in the league and last in the AFC.

Another telling indicator of how things went last year was the ratio of running plays to passing plays for both the Dolphins and their opponents. Of their 989 offensive plays (389 rushes, 558 passes, and 42 sacks), the Dolphins ran just 39% of the time. On the flip side, 55% of the opponents 983 plays (544 rushes, 409 passes, and 30 sacks) were running plays. This is a function of the Dolphins falling behind in games early and often, allowing opponents to pound the ball on the ground against a tiring defense through the 3rd and 4th quarters of games.

On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins pass defense was surprisingly not as bad as some people believe. They ranked 4th in the league in fewest passing yards allowed per game (due at least in part to the fact that teams only passed 45% of the time). Against the run, however, the Dolphins finished dead last in the NFL in yards allowed, giving up an average of 153.5 yards per game. When teams took the lead, they were able to run the ball, grinding out yards -- and clock. When the Dolphins offense took the field, they were forced to pass to play catch-up, which resulted in more pressure on the quarterbacks since defenses didn’t have to worry about defending the run.

The inability to effectively run the ball and stop the run were the two major things that went wrong with Miami in 2007. Bill Parcells has already begun taking small steps toward correcting these deficiencies and you can expect him to take even more dramatic steps in the next three months. Tomorrow will be a breakdown of what this all means for the draft and the rest of the Dolphins off-season.
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About Joe Mayes

Joe Mayes is an award-winning writer with credits ranging from national sports columns to local newspapers and commercial and technical writing. Joe is the host of "The Morning Wrap," a morning drive-time sports talk radio show on WTKE-FM in Northwest ...
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