Brown not yet elite, but as good or better than his contemporaries

By Hugo Guzman  |   Thursday, October 23, 2008  |  Comments( 5 )

Miami Dolphins
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There are 101 topics of discussion as the Miami Dolphins head into Week 8 of the NFL season. There’s the release of former starting safety Chris Crocker. There’s the rumors and innuendo surrounding rookie quarterback Chad Henne. There’s the lingering rib injury affecting defensive centerpiece Jason Ferguson.

Somehow, though, this writer's mind turns to the production of featured running back Ronnie Brown.

This isn't a bash piece centered on his lackluster performance last week against the league’s No. 1-ranked run defense (Brown ran 13 times for 27 yards versus Baltimore). Instead, the goal of this journalistic foray is to figure out where Brown stands thus far in the 2008 season; in addition, we'll see where he stands in comparison to other blue-chip running backs who have been drafted in recent years.

Sentiment among Dolphins fans regarding Brown breaks down into two main camps: 1. Those who believe that Brown is an elite NFL back; 2. Those who believe that Brown is a talented and promising back who is still a notch below elite.

(There used to be a third camp comprised of fans who steadfastly believed Brown was a bust, but that thought has more or less dissipated over the past year or so.)

At this point in the 2008 campaign, it appears that Brown seems to fall somewhere in between those two main sentiments. It really depends on how you evaluate the performance of a running back.

For example, if first downs and touchdowns float your boat, then the former Auburn standout is definitely elite. Twenty-five of Brown’s 84 carries have resulted in first downs and he's second only to red-zone dynamo LenDale White. Brown is also solid in terms of yards per carry (4.3) and fumbles (zero).

However, if pure yardage is your thing, then Brown is still in the middle of the pack. Through six games, Brown is tied with an aging Edgerrin James for 21st in the league. Brown has just two 100-yard performances en route to 363 total. Moreover, his receiving yardage -- which is usually substantial -- has been pedestrian thus far (11 catches, 108 yards).

Still, with 10 games left to play, Brown’s main goal has nothing to do with statistics or breakout performances. Instead, the primary measuring stick will be his ability to stay healthy and finish the season without missing significant time because of injury. That has been his main knock so far during his four-year career, and it is one of the big pieces of ammunition for his naysayers.

Ironically enough, when compared to his contemporaries, Brown actually looks good in terms of his durability and staying power.

For example, consider the two other top five running backs selected alongside Brown in the 2005 draft. Cedric Benson, whom the Bears took two spots after Brown at No. 4 overall, has had some injury issues; of course, his main downfall has been an utter and complete lack of NFL production, which has rendered him an afterthought in league circles. The former Texas standout, now a Bengal, has started just 13 games in his pro career.

Brown’s college teammate Cadillac Williams burst onto the NFL scene and won rookie of the year honors after being the fifth choice of the '05 draft. Unfortunately, the Buccaneer began to show signs of wear and tear in his second year and has gotten progressively more brittle, succumbing to a torn patellar tendon in 2007. He has not played an NFL game in over a year.

Another player who will likely always be compared to Brown is Reggie Bush. Like Brown, Bush is a former second overall pick (2006); nevertheless, Bush was supposed to be a much better pro than Brown. Prior to entering the NFL, Bush seemed like a surefire success with his mixture of speed, pass-catching ability and elusiveness. As it's turned out, though, the former USC star has struggled to be an every-down, between-the-tackles type of runner. His saving grace has been uncanny run-after-catch abilities and the NFL’s shift to more of a two-back philosophy.

Just for fun, let’s compare Brown and Bush for a moment:

- Like Brown, Bush has had his share of injuries woes. He missed four games in 2007 and just underwent surgery this week to repair torn cartilage in his knee. Nobody knows for sure, but this will likely sideline him at least a handful of games.

- Bush has the edge in terms of receiving skills, catching 203 passes for 1,525 yards and seven touchdowns in just 35 games. Brown is a solid receiver out of the backfield in his own right, but he has only 115 receptions for 1,005 yards and two TDs in 41 games.

- Brown has the definite edge in terms of protecting the ball, fumbling just eight times in 766 touches (once every 96 times). Bush has had significant issues with ball security, fumbling 13 times in 602 touches (once every 46 attempts).

- In terms of pure rushing ability, Brown has a clear-cut advantage in nearly every facet. His yards per carry average of 4.4 dwarfs Bush’s pedestrian 3.6. Brown also scores more touchdowns per game (once every two contests for Brown; once every three for Bush) and simply dominates Bush in terms of short-yardage ability, yards after contact and first downs.

Perhaps most surprising of all is the fact that Bush has never had a run longer than 29 yards, while Brown has already tallied four scampers of 60-plus yards.

Of course, there are some contemporaries who have outshone Brown thus far in their relatively short careers. The 49ers' Frank Gore, a fellow 2005 product, has a better yards per carry average and has displayed better durability and big-play ability (though he's had some significant fumbling issues). The Cowboys' Marion Barber, yet another '05 selection, has been a veritable touchdown machine and has also been a more durable back (he's struggled to break off long runs, though).

Joseph Addai, a 2006 choice, is another rusher who has found the end zone more than Brown, but he has also struggled to amass big gains or flash the tough running that has become Brown’s hallmark. He has also benefited from playing on a high-powered offense that has helped pad his stats. Maurice Jones-Drew is another touchdown and big-play magnet, though his production has fallen steadily since a breakout season in 2006.

Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch headline the 2007 running back crop, and both have been arguably better than Brown. That said, Lynch’s 3.9 per-carry average and Peterson’s penchant for fumbling (seven in his short career) prove that they are not immune to shortcomings.

So what does all this mean? It’s simple. Though there are some young backs who can lay claim to being the best up-and-coming players at their position (most would say that Peterson leads that pack), Brown is clearly in a position to make a push and surpass all of these would-be suitors, ascending to the throne reserved for the NFL’s top overall RB.

His production isn’t quite there yet, but he has shown enough flashes to prove that this highly optimistic scenario is more than just wishful thinking if he can stay healthy.
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About Hugo Guzman

Trying to bring an objective approach to NFL analysis.
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