Dolphins’ playoff loss a case of simple mathematics

By Hugo Guzman  |   Monday, January 05, 2009  |  Comments( 7 )

Miami Dolphins
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Consider this: Through 276 quarters of regular-season football, the Miami Dolphins turned the ball over just 13 times. At the forefront of their stinginess was quarterback Chad Pennington, who tossed only seven interceptions.

In Sunday's wild-card playoff round loss to Baltimore, the Dolphins turned it over five times in just two quarters. Pennington threw four interceptions. If you extrapolate those numbers, it’s easy to understand why Miami suffered a 27-9 defeat.

(Note: For you math buffs out there, those turnovers over the course of the second and third quarter would work out to 160 giveaways and 128 interceptions over the course of a 16-game season.)

Mind you, it wasn’t just turnovers that doomed the Dolphins. Uncharacteristic miscues also helped sabotage Miami’s efforts to stay competitive down the stretch. None was costlier than a botched exchange between Pennington and wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. on an ill-fated reverse late in the fourth quarter. The miscue resulted in a loss of 19 yards and killed a drive that looked destined to put Miami within a score of taking the lead. Incidentally, it's hard to fault the coaching staff for calling that play in that spot when you consider how much success the Dolphins had with it during the regular season.

Not surprisingly, Sunday's game came down to which team took advantage of its opportunities. The Ravens certainly made Miami pay for its mistakes, generating 14 points off turnovers and sneaking in a field goal thanks to a well-executed two-minute drill late in the second quarter. Miami squandered most of its opportunities, failing to score a touchdown early in the first quarter despite two snaps from the 1-yard line and letting two promising drives in the second half slip away. One ended on an ill-advised Pennington pass that was intercepted by all-world safety Ed Reed and the other on Ginn’s aforementioned exchange blunder.

Not buying this argument? Consider these facts:
-Miami won the time-of-possession battle, holding the football for over 33 minutes.
-Miami’s defense held Joe Flacco to just 135 passing yards and just nine completions on 23 attempts.
-Miami’s offense was outgained by just 10 yards (Baltimore finished with 286 yards and 5.1 yards per attempt, while the Dolphins finished with 276 yards on 4.5 yards per attempt).
-The Ravens were able to rush for 151 yards, but those numbers were padded by a 48-yard Willis McGahee scamper in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter. Baltimore’s leading rusher, Le’Ron McClain, finished with just 75 yards on 19 carries.

In the end, the Dolphins were felled by the one thing they prided themselves on all season. Five turnovers and a bevy of mental lapses doomed Miami, arresting its season in uncharacteristically ugly fashion.
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About Hugo Guzman

Trying to bring an objective approach to NFL analysis.
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CommentsComments: 7  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
JimmyD		10:58 PM
01/05/2009
The Ravens defense absolutely crushed the Dolphins. They were dominant at the point of attack and when you have limited talent on...
No.2
Joe		09:56 PM
01/06/2009
The Fins just aren't there yet but they are heading in the right direction. With the pressure that Penny had to face it is...
No.3
JimmyD		11:41 AM
01/07/2009
Nope! The Phish do not have any playmakers...it's obvious and that is why they blew the dust off of a 40 year old formation to...
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