Deconstructing Pennington’s postseason woes

By Hugo Guzman  |   Monday, January 12, 2009  |  Comments( 4 )

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It really doesn’t matter what your opinion of Chad Pennington might be. Maybe you think that Pennington is the savior of a Miami Dolphins franchise that was in a state of unsettling disrepair. Or perhaps you think that he’s a noodle-armed, middle-of-the-road QB who benefited from the "Wildcat" formation as well as an ultra-conservative game plan that catered to his one and only gift: passing efficiency.

Either way, there’s no disputing the sublime nature of his regular-season exploits in 2008. He threw for well over 3,500 yards, also tossing nearly three times as many touchdowns as interceptions. He posted a passer rating just shy of 100. Most importantly, he helped the upstart Dolphins reel off 11 wins in their final 14 regular-season games en route to an improbable AFC East title.

Naysayers can argue about yards after catch and lack of downfield proficiency, but they can’t dispute the facts surrounding Pennington’s regular-season success. Using virtually any objective means of measurement, it’s hard not to come to the conclusion that Pennington posted one of the greatest regular seasons in Dolphins history (and that includes many of Dan Marino’s campaigns).

Unfortunately, there is another subtle yet ugly fact that materialized at the tail end of Miami’s season. Pennington isn’t very good in the playoffs.

In the playoffs, Pennington’s regular-season strengths appear to become weaknesses. His vaunted completion rate drops from an outstanding 66 percent to a pedestrian 61.1. The former Marshall standout goes from throwing close to two touchdowns for every one interception to a mediocre one-to-one ratio. Perhaps most strikingly, his passer rating plummets from a terrific 90.6 to a Jay Fiedler-like 77.3.

With numbers like these, it’s no surprise that Pennington is just 2-4 in the postseason and has never advanced beyond the divisional round of the playoffs.

So what’s next for the nine-year veteran who is fast approaching his 33rd birthday? Will he finally get over the hump and lead the resurgent Dolphins deep into the postseason? Perhaps. Will he continue to excel in the regular season but fall flat in the early rounds of a return trip to the playoffs? Maybe. Will he continue a trend that has carried over from his Jets days, failing to lead his team to the postseason two years in a row? Possibly.

All but one of these scenarios is a major cause for concern. However, he’s the only quarterback on the Dolphins roster who has a proven track record of winning regular-season games, let alone playoff contests. Therefore, barring injury or utterly and completely lackluster play, Pennington should remain the starting quarterback in Miami.

His great 2008 campaign should earn him at least one more season to prove that he’s more than just a regular-season signal caller.
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About Hugo Guzman

Trying to bring an objective approach to NFL analysis.
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CommentsComments: 4  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
cnc66		11:40 AM
01/12/2009
Morning Hugo, thanks for the read. I understand the stats you are using here, and I do think they have relevance to the overall...
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No.2
Hugo Guzman		01:06 PM
01/12/2009
Interesting point, cnc, and it's funny that you mention it because one of my follow up articles (in the coming weeks) will cover...
No.3
JimmyD		12:58 PM
01/16/2009
Pennington did as well as any QB in the league and with a less than talented O-line and receiver corp. The Ravens game is hard to...
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