Will the 2009 schedule really harpoon the Dolphins?

By Adam Sweeney  |   Friday, February 06, 2009  |  Comments( 6 )

Miami Dolphins
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Depending on which media source you rely on, strength of schedule is everything when it comes to the NFL. Formers Kansas City Chiefs head coach Dick Vermeil swore by that, and said it was one of the reasons his St. Louis Rams were able to win a Super Bowl.

If there is truth to the importance of your schedule, then the Miami Dolphins might be in for a world of hurt come 2009. They have the most difficult schedule in the NFL next season, as their opponents have a winning percentage of .594 (a 152-104 combined record overall). But is it time for Dolphins fans to break out their Tom Brady voodoo dolls and curse schedule-makers? Not really. Look at NFL expert John Clayton's pick of the Oakland Raiders as a sleeper team last season, based mainly on their perceived easy schedule. They were a sleeper, all right, and bets are still coming in on what was scarier -- JaMarcus Russell's stats or the face of Al Davis.

The strength of schedule is as unpredictable as Vince Young's career at this moment, and that is largely because we have no idea who will be quality opponents next season. For schedule-makers and stat-heads, it is all about the past. Any fantasy football gamer can tell you that there is nothing guaranteed in the league. If you need proof, consider that the Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers and Dolphins all were new to the NFL playoff bracket compared to the 2008 version. How many fans last season saw Miami or Baltimore on their schedule, and based on the 2008 record thought, "Sweet, that's a 'W' for my team"? Probably quite a few. And, man, were they in for a rude awakening. There are very few truly poor teams in the league, so it is foolish to assume any club is going to stay in the cellar for long ... except the Detroit Lions.

The Super Bowl provides a polarizing example of the importance of a team's strength of schedule. The Cardinals played in the weakest division in the NFL, basically being handed the NFC West title. They were considered the worst team in the entire playoff bracket, right up until they kicked in the heads of every NFC opponent they played, and nearly walked out of Tampa Bay with a Super Bowl victory.

The champion Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, ended up playing the toughest schedule since 1978. I guarantee you that head coach Mike Tomlin would tell you the pains of that schedule made them a better team, particularly in crunch time. The Steelers didn't buckle under the pressure. Why would they, considering that they played in a do-or-die atmosphere for nearly the entire season? The great teams find a way to win. Clubs like the Cleveland Browns, who had a similarly brutal schedule given their NFC North distinction, did not. But their failures had more to do with their horrible play than the teams on their schedule.

What the Dolphins really need to be worried about is the return of Brady. In an AFC East division that saw three teams fighting for the title in the final week of the season, an X-factor like Brady can shift the poles just enough to take a title. And the Patriots will be playing the third-toughest schedule in the NFL. So, your rivals are going to be suffering right along with you.

Ultimately, the Dolphins might actually benefit from a tougher schedule. Whether it is perception or reality, the idea of facing top-notch opponents will allow head coach Tony Sparano to keep his players focused and hungry. If last season was about building trust that this team can compete, then the Dolphins should set their sights on proving they weren't a fluke. Emerging as a playoff participant against a hard schedule will only serve notice to the league that this Dolphins team isn't going away anytime soon. Sending a message like that can go a long way toward landing the final few pieces, such as in free agency, that this team needs in order to be a Super Bowl contender. The cakewalk of 2008 is over for Miami, but it may find that what doesn't kill it will truly make it stronger.
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About Adam Sweeney

Adam Sweeney spent 4 years as an opinions and arts & entertainment columnist with the Lone Star Lutheran, also working with Sports Illustrated.com. Along with his work on Realfootball 365 he currently is a contributor for Film School Rejects, SLAM Online, Talkhoops.net, and C-Heads ...
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CommentsComments: 6  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
JimmyD		05:33 PM
02/06/2009
Given a very tough schedule next season and the current lack of talent and depth on defense and in the receiver corp, they could ...
No.2
Adam Sweeney		09:52 PM
02/08/2009
They definitely need to improve their depth. This may end up being a situation where a team improves overall, but still winds up ...
No.3
JimmyD		08:32 AM
02/09/2009
Yeah, Adam, the 09 season will be a real test as new players get acclimated to the plan. The coaching staff seems solid and what ...
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