Dolphins’ best move? Trade up, grab Thomas

By Adam Best  |   Monday, March 26, 2007  |  Comments( 27 )

Miami Dolphins
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I recently suggested that the Miami Dolphins package picks and trade up to the second selection in the upcoming 2007 NFL Draft in order to select offensive lineman Joe Thomas, the lone potential franchise tackle available. The reader reaction was mixed at best. Their sentiment was that the Dolphins have too many glaring holes to sacrifice multiple picks for one player, no matter how talented he may be. In fact, most readers prefer that the Dolphins trade down from the ninth pick and stockpile both first- and second-day draft picks.

Easier said than done.

Most teams would rather stay put than trade up, maximizing their odds of landing starters or even standouts by selecting more players. This makes it very hard to trade down from a top-10 pick in return for what ideally would result in both quality and quantity, rather than just quality. A top-10 choice already brings with it insane pressure, as both the media and fans expect that player to ultimately become a superstar. That pressure is amplified when a franchise trades away three or four first-day picks, or more, in order to obtain a coveted player.

Last year, the Saints picked rusher-receiver-return man extraordinaire Reggie Bush, a player several teams considered trading up for, with the second overall pick. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars grabbed a comparable player in Maurice Jones-Drew 58 picks later. Jones-Drew's rookie production was similar to Bush's, except the former scored nearly twice as many touchdowns.

Draft day occurrences such as these are happening with increased frequency in the NFL. That being said, why sacrifice a hoard of draft picks for a top-10 choice when a similar player can be drafted later? At least that's the general consensus around the league right now.

With the 2007 draft approaching quickly, the Detroit Lions desperately want to trade down from the second pick, but they are finding no takers. I don't blame the Lions and team president/CEO Matt Millen for wanting to get out of the top 10. Can his career really survive another bust such as disappointing wide receivers Charles Rodgers (second overall - 2003 draft) or Mike Williams (10th overall - 2005 draft)?

The other issue that a top pick carries with it is salary-cap ramifications. If a top-10 pick busts, you not only waste the pick but also a huge chunk of your team's cap.

Still, I'm sticking to my contention that the Dolphins SHOULD trade with the Lions and pick Thomas. Detroit's desperation paired with a lack of potential trading partners makes this an ideal situation for the Dolphins. They might be able to get the second pick for less than face value.

Sure, top picks bust. However, the situation is different when a potential franchise offensive tackle is available. Especially considering that offensive line is the Dolphins' biggest weakness. At least two O-line positions - left guard and left tackle -- have to be addressed if the Dolphins are serious about making the playoffs.

Look at the top 10 tackles in the league: Jonathan Ogden (Baltimore Ravens), Orlando Pace (St. Louis Rams), Walter Jones (Seattle Seahawks), Marvel Smith (Pittsburgh Steelers), Chris Samuels (Washington Redskins), Bryant McKinnie (Minnesota Vikings), Tarik Glenn (Indianapolis Colts), Willie Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals), Jordan Gross (Carolina Panthers) and Flozell Adams (Dallas Cowboys).

Only two of those players, Smith and Adams, were selected outside of the first round (both in the second round, 38th overall). Of the remaining eight, only Glenn was picked outside of the top 10 (17th overall). Considering this, it is only logical to conclude that to obtain an elite tackle a team must use a top-10 pick, often higher.

Furthermore, four of the last seven Super Bowl teams (Colts, Panthers, Seahawks and Steelers) have a player on that list. The other three teams (Chicago Bears, New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles) boast a borderline elite tackle who narrowly missed my list (John Tait (CHI), Matt Light (NE) and Jon Runyan (PHI).

In the past, the Dolphins have often been lucky, finding great value like linebacker Zach Thomas and defensive end Jason Taylor in the middle rounds of the draft. However, when it comes to offensive tackles teams not only need an elite one to contend for a Super Bowl, but they also have to spend a top draft pick to obtain that coveted tackle.

If the Dolphins are truly serious about contending next season, General Manager Randy Mueller and Co. would be wise to go against the grain, trade up and select Thomas on April 28.

Original Miami Dolphins offseason insight, courtesy of RealFootball365.com
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