‘What-if’ scenarios awaiting Dolphins’ Beck

By Hugo Guzman  |   Monday, June 25, 2007  |  Comments( 20 )

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As of right now, the Miami Dolphins' plan is to have newly anointed quarterback of the future John Beck gradually work his way into a starting role. The idea is for Beck to be groomed behind veteran Trent Green and compete alongside fellow youngster Cleo Lemon, eventually settling into the No. 1 job one or two years down the line.

But, as legendary author John Steinbeck once said, he best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

What if Beck -- a second-round pick and ex-BYU star -- is forced into the starting role immediately? Can he shoulder the burden of lining up behind center as a rookie, or will he fold like an envelope because of the pass rush and other assorted pressures that he will be presented?

As of now, no one knows if Beck will enter the season as the backup or as a third-stringer. His fellow understudy, Lemon, is convinced that he has a legitimate shot at the starting job. And why not? After all, it was head coach Cam Cameron who told Lemon this is to be an open competition. However, conventional wisdom says that the Dolphins didn't go to such great lengths (a conditional fifth-round pick and weeks of haggling) in acquiring Green if they weren't planning on starting him.

But does that leave Lemon as the backup, or will he go back to being the third guy in line?

The truth is that the answer to this question likely won't be known until late August, but even if Beck is relegated to third string, he is still just a step or two away from starting status. What if both Green and Lemon succumb to injury, or what if Green gets hurt and Lemon is painfully ineffective? Then what?

If either of these scenarios comes to fruition, Beck will find himself in a situation that few quarterbacks in recent history have emerged from unscathed.

It's true that the Tennessee Titans' Vince Young garnered Rookie of the Year honors as a QB last season; however, he is the exception and not the rule. Further, Young did most of his damage with his legs and not his arm, completing just 51.7 percent of his passes and finishing the season with a dismal 66.7 passer rating. It was his 552 rushing yards and seven ground touchdowns that turned him into an offensive weapon.

Beck, while somewhat mobile, will be more of a prototypical pocket passer, so he will have to earn a living with his arm.

Arizona Cardinals QB Matt Leinart is another guy who was considered to be an example of a successful rookie passer, but like Young, the golden boy threw more interceptions than touchdowns in his inaugural season and completed just 56.8 percent of his attempts. His 74.0 passer rating is modest at best, especially when you consider the array of weapons that surrounded him at the skill positions.

Surprisingly enough, the most successful rookie quarterback from the class of 2006 was Denver Broncos signal-caller Jay Cutler. He completed nearly 60 percent of his passes, threw eight touchdowns to just five interceptions, and finished with a healthy 88.5 rating. Still, Cutler had his share of missteps and benefited from having to play just five games at the tail end of the season.

Now let's move a little further back into his history and talk about good old Ben Roethlisberger. Here's a guy whom many point to as the best first-year QB since Dan Marino in the '80s.

Roethlisberger did post impressive numbers and a sterling passer rating of 98.1, but anyone who watched the Steelers in 2004 knows that he was utilized in a very conservative manner during the regular season and that his inexperience proved to be the team's ultimate undoing during the playoffs. Roethlisberger's proneness to mental errors and poor execution eventually caught up with him during the playoffs, further solidifying the stance that rookie pro QBs rarely have what it takes to succeed at the NFL level.

And just in case some of you are still in need of a more definitive cautionary tale that exemplifies the pitfalls that can ensnare a rookie quarterback, 2005 provides the perfect anecdote with Alex Smith.

Fresh off his No. 1 overall selection in the '05 draft, Smith was handed the reins for the 49ers in Week 5 of the regular season. He then proceeded to post one of the most dreadful campaigns in league history, throwing just one touchdown to go along with 11 interceptions and posting an embarrassing 40.8 passer rating. He also was sidelined for five games with a knee injury.

Smith managed to bounce back a bit in 2006, but that was mainly thanks to the breakout performance of running back Frank Gore. Smith's numbers last year were pedestrian (74.8 passer rating), and it is still unclear whether he will ever truly live up to top-pick status.

And while Beck is a great character guy and a mature, responsible 25-year-old, these facets of persona won't help him one bit on the field of play. The only thing that will count on Sundays will be his God-given talent, level of preparation, and the supporting cast around him. And unfortunately, history predicts that if he has to call upon these factors in his rookie season, Beck is more than likely doomed to fail.

Hopefully, for Miami's sake, it won't come to that. And the Dolphins need to hope they were wise to turn away an experienced starter like Daunte Culpepper. The team's best-case scenario is that Green will stay healthy and Lemon will perform if called into service.

Get daily Miami Dolphins analysis at RealFootball365.com

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About Hugo Guzman

Trying to bring an objective approach to NFL analysis.
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CommentsComments: 20  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
jax		09:19 AM
06/26/2007
Either way, lets play football. Green, Beck (one hit away) Lemon are all fine with me. I wouldn't mind it if Green goes down...
No.2
YOYO		09:54 AM
06/26/2007
I second Jax's motion. Who cares right now, let's just play some football. I am just happy that we are only a couple months...
No.3
Ron Evans		10:04 AM
06/26/2007
If John Beck is as good as I hope he is then he will be the back up this year. Going back in J.Beck's history he has improved...
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