Dolphins must find ways to reverse “loser” patterns

By Hugo Guzman  |   Tuesday, November 20, 2007  |  Comments( 7 )

Miami Dolphins
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There are many reasons why the Miami Dolphins are currently sitting at 0-10 and facing the sobering specter of an imperfect season to oppose their perfect one from 1972.

However, there are several key trends that may help explain why this team has found itself on the losing end of a relatively close outcome in eight of 10 outings in 2007. Incidentally, the only two teams that have beaten the Dolphins handily are the Patriots (10-0) and Cowboys (9-1), two powerhouses. In the rest of its games, Miami either led or was within one score in the fourth quarter.

At first glance, it would appear that the team has found new and creative ways to lose games with each passing week, but there are actually a few disturbing trends that have manifested themselves in virtually every agonizing defeat:

1. A porous run defense.
2. An inability to convert sustained drives into touchdowns.
3. Lack of a vertical passing game.
4. A penchant for giving up demoralizing first downs in key third-and-long situations.

The Dolphins are dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up a ridiculous 154.9 yards per game. This past Sunday, it was Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook's turn to pound the Miami defense. Though known more for his ability to catch passes from the backfield, Westbrook posted a career day on the ground, rushing for 148 yards on 32 carries.

Not sure that poor rush defense translates into lots of losing? Here's some interesting food for thought: The league's five worst rush defenses in 2006 - Tampa Bay, Oakland, Arizona, Cleveland and Detroit - all had a top-five pick in last April's draft.

Sadly, though, it's not just the defense that is exhibiting negative tendencies. The Dolphins' offense is also pitching in its fair share. Despite establishing an impressive rushing attack and amassing a multitude of sustained drives each week, Miami's 'O' has been unable to cash in with touchdowns. Instead, the unit has either settled for field goal attempts or punted the ball away. This has been especially true over the past 12 quarters of football, in which Miami has generated just three touchdowns despite rushing for 346 yards and engineering seven drives consisting of nine plays or more.

A solid rushing attack and long offensive drives usually lead to touchdowns along with a few notches in the win column, but that's simply not the case for the Dolphins.

One of the reasons that Miami has failed to generate offensive touchdowns is its lack of a vertical passing game. Whether it was Trent Green, Cleo Lemon or rookie John Beck lining up under center, the long completion has simply not been a part of the team's offensive repertoire. It certainly doesn't help that the Dolphins jettisoned their No. 1 receiver, Chris Chambers, at the trade deadline and has fielded two guys not known for their deep ball in nine of 10 contests; but with a speedster like Ted Ginn Jr. on the outside, you'd think that the team would connect on a deep ball from time to time, even if just by luck. Yet somehow, the Dolphins' longest completion of the season came courtesy of a Ronnie Brown screen play that netted 43 yards.

Fortunately, Beck displayed flashes of cohesion with fellow rookie Ginn. He even attempted to hit Ginn on a deep fade route down the left sideline late in the second quarter against the Eagles, but the pass fell incomplete; admittedly, it would have likely been picked had Ginn not converted into a defensive back on the play and knocked it away from Sheldon Brown. Still, expect the Dolphins' rookie tandem to remedy this situation sooner than later, which is great news for an ascending offense that has displayed an ability to run the ball with consistency but would benefit greatly from some measure of balance.

There is one last trend left to address, and this one seems to be the most pervasive and the most concerning for the Dolphins.

Game after game, the Miami defense has been able to play well on first and second down, putting its opponents in third-and-long situations. However, the Dolphins' foes have consistently been able to convert in those spots, deflating the defense's spirit and laying the foundation for game-killing drives. This phenomenon is extraordinarily confounding because it seems as if everything that was working on first and second down goes down the drain on third down for Miami.

If the pass rush was working, it fails on third. If the pass coverage was solid, it falters on third. If the tackling was sound, someone (or everyone) fails to wrap up on third.

This lack of execution on third down speaks to a fundamental losing mindset that manifests on defense but seems to be present in virtually every facet of the offense.

And until the Dolphins' young players can figure out how to reverse this subtle trend, Miami will continue to end up on the losing end of close-fought contests.
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About Hugo Guzman

Trying to bring an objective approach to NFL analysis.
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