Dolphins would need to bend and break Bills’ defense

By Anthony Bialy  |   Friday, December 07, 2007  |  Comments( 4 )

Miami Dolphins
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It's going to be at best chilly and at worst cold enough to store beer for immediate consumption purposes in vehicle trunks, it's versus a team on the direct outskirts of the playoffs desperate for victories, and it's a divisional game featuring two franchises that despise each other enough to make Dallas and Washington look like dear old school chums, meaning the opponent will be extra determined. Is there anything which would indicate that, unlike what's taken place every game of the season's first three quarters, the Dolphins could win this week's game in Buffalo?

Looking at the numbers, there seems to be some reason for hope in Miami that the Bills could be susceptible when they don't have the ball. Then again, maybe not: Buffalo is either bad or mediocre defensively depending on the statistical column. Specifically, they're a miserable 30th in yards allowed at 370.4 per contest. Yet, they're better in points conceded, standing in 21st place with 22.8. The difference between the ground and points given up is a fairly large disparity that superficially appears incongruous.

But there's a reason those numbers make sense: What's going on is that the Bills surrender yards in bunches but don't necessarily let foes march into the end zone. Their version of the Tampa 2 is built around them conceding small gains with the goal of preventing devastatingly huge plays.

They're willing to give up some ground, focusing on keeping adversaries from racking up touchdowns rather than the impractical task of stopping them from making any progress at all. This could be good news territorially for a Miami side that only obtains 281.5 yards a game, fourth-worst in the league; on the other hand, they're only scoring 16.3 points every time out, good for 27th, and that's going to be trickier to increase.

The best hope for the Dolphins would be sustained drives, as Buffalo has let those it has faced convert 82 of their 167 third downs into new sets, an NFL-worst, pitifully high 49 percent. The only excuse is that their style of defense lends itself to conceding first down-length gains. At a shade under 38 percent, Miami is 22nd in the category when it's on offense, having made 58 of its 154 third downs. It could be an opportunity for the Dolphins to have extended possessions; at the same time, Bills defenders will be looking at this as a chance to reduce their own average.

Buffalo is naturally also aware that Dolphins running back Jesse Chatman will either be limited or unavailable, which is going to make it trickier for the visitors to consume clock and move the chains. If that proves to be the case, the more formidable task of getting drives to culminate with six points might become an unattainable dream unless John Beck can be accurate at short range and find receivers underneath the Bills' net.

Even exploiting soft zone spots will be tricky for Beck and his 53.6 rating, with a 54.8 percent completion rate serving as a personal lowlight. He also hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in his three games, so anticipating that he'll start tossing them starting Sunday is slightly more preposterous than expecting him to roll up yardage consistently. It's not a knock against Beck: No one should have expected a rookie to turn around a miserable team's fortune in his first handful of starts. But it is the reality.

That said, this would be a contest where the Dolphins at least have an occasion to hold the ball extensively; whether they can actually do so and also score regularly in a hostile stadium will be a tougher matter. It might come down to a battle of wills built around the framework of mutual enmity these teams share: The Bills would love to keep the Dolphins on their steady winless path, while Miami would be happy to dent Buffalo's wild-card aspirations in addition to of course simultaneously wanting to get that first victory. Matchups between a .500 team and a perpetually defeated one are rarely as intense as this upcoming game will surely be.
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