After LT and Peterson, who?

By Os Davis  |   Monday, July 07, 2008  |  Comments( 16 )

Fantasy Football
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Talk about your prohibitive favorites: With months to go before kickoff, common wisdom has LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson finishing as the NFL’s 2008 rushing leaders; because of that, most figure the two will be the top couple picks in fantasy drafts. How favored are they? Check out this bookmaker, who doesn't even bother to post odds on any rusher.

And the intrigue begins at No. 3. With Tomlinson and Peterson off the board, who’s next? A brief look at some potential candidates for those of you drafting this early.

(Note: Fantasy points are deriving from the system used by the RealFootball365.com in-house league's host, including one point for 25 yards passing; one point for 10 yards receiving/rushing; six points for a touchdown passed/run/caught; minus-2 points for fumble/interception.)

Brian Westbrook. Attention, Philadelphia fans: After years of ignoring the situation at wide receiver, the multi-talented Westbrook has piled up a couple of monster seasons (1,916 total yards, 11 TDs, two fumbles for about 13.0 fantasy points per game in 2006; 2,104 yards, 12 TDs, two fumbles for approximately 18.7 per in 15 games in 2007) and is officially no longer remotely under the radar. Naturally, with the likes of DeSean Jackson and Reggie Brown comprising Donovan McNabb’s receiving corps, Westbrook seems poised for another ridiculous season statistically.

Steven Jackson. The official NFL-sanctioned No. 3 fantasy choice, this writer doesn't get why. Even in his abbreviated 12-game season last year, he carried the ball fewer than 20 times per game in the panicky, pass-happy St. Louis Rams offense. Jackson should improve on his 10.8 fantasy points per game, but he won't progress enough to be a No. 3 draft pick.

Jamal Lewis. Now here’s a scintillating pick. Lewis exceeded expectations for the Cleveland Browns last season, going for 1,552 total yards and 11 TDs – good for approximately 14.5 fantasy points per in 15 games – in his second-best statistical campaign of his career after the monster season of 2003. Factor in the awesome line the Browns have built and Lewis could well be in the top three or four by year’s end as a fantasy back. The biggest minus: age. Sure, Lewis is only 28, but do you realize he’s turned in four seasons of 300-plus attempts (last year, he went for “only” 298)? This makes his football age about, what, 41 or so?

Darren McFadden. How can you tell the citizen of Raider Nation at your fantasy draft? He’ll be the one taking McFadden at No. 3. (Heck, one can imagine many self-respecting Raider backers going with the silver-and-black hope at No. 2 overall rather than take hated Charger Tomlinson.) For the fantasy game, the questions about McFadden are all about his integration into the offense and the actual play-calling itself. McFadden seems doubtless to make an impact; how high up he goes depends on the confidence you have in JaMarcus Russell, Lane Kiffin and Oakland.

Willie Parker. Nope, not even close and the reason is obvious. Yes, Willie is speedy, explosive and can run up the yards like lightning, but you’ll never see him punch it in from close range. Parker’s total TDs in 2007? Two. If you can’t wait 17 weeks for 12 points overall, be my guest. Of course, the presence of first-round back Rashard Mendenhall also won't help Parker's numbers.

Tom Brady. This is where is gets weird, eh? Along with rewriting key bits of the NFL record book last season, Brady made his mark in the fantasy draft textbooks as well; over recent years as fantasy became national obsession, the mantra was “First round, second round, halfback, halfback.” Suddenly armed with stat-padders Randy Moss and Wes Welker, Brady showed the fantasy numbers of which a QB in the '00s is capable. (Incidentally, Peyton Manning also turned in a swell fantasy season in 2007 at just under 27 fantasy points per game.)

The stats: Brady averaged an insane 29.75 fantasy points per game. To equal that output, an RB would have to produce about 210 total yards and two TDs per game, allowing for four fumbles over the course of the season.

Surely Brady won’t reproduce those numbers this year, but you've gotta figure he’ll have another monster season. The recommendation here is in smaller leagues to take Brady at No. 3. The reasoning goes something like this: If you’re in an eight-team league drafting third, your second and third picks come at No. 14 and 19; that’s still in the Marion Barber/Ryan Grant/Joseph Addai area, according to 2007 stats. A decent enough twosome could be made up of runners still available in the top 20, particularly considering at least two quarterbacks will be drafted by or at Nos. 17 and 18.

And then you’d have to spend the season cheering for Tom Brady’s success; ain’t fantasy football great?
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's...
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