The rule of 1,500

By Kelly May  |   Monday, July 14, 2008  |  Comments( 9 )

Fantasy Football
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Take a 215-pound man and slam him into the middle of 10 or so guys, all of whom average 275 pounds each. Now do that about 300 times each football season. What’s left over is a Pro Football Hall of Famer, a broken-down backup or a bust.

Being an NFL running back isn’t easy, but it’s an even tougher job to try and figure out when one will start his inevitable decline. Generally, age is the line of demarcation, but that doesn’t always tell the whole story.

In reality, it’s the magic number of 1,500 carries. Once a back accrues 1,500 rushing attempts during his career, either his skills begin to deteriorate or he is a couple of years away from a full-scale breakdown.

Eddie George may have been 31 when he played his last season in the NFL, but the beginning of the end happened four years earlier during his career campaign of 2000. He hit 1,500 carries that season and was never the same.

George isn’t the only back who had his best season the year he hit 1,500 attempts, though, as Jerome Bettis, Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, Jim Brown, Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander, Stephen Davis and Rodney Hampton all had their top years when they achieved the milestone.

For most, though, 1,500 carries comes a couple of years after their best season. Priest Holmes hit 1,500 in 2004, but his days were already numbered when you consider that he hasn’t played a full season since 2003.

This may seem like bad news, and maybe it is if you’re a pro running back sitting at 1,499 carries, but for an organization the rule of 1,500 carries can mean the difference between picking up a stud free agent or paying a has-been for his past glory.

NFL general managers don’t make their decisions based solely on the number of carries a free-agent halfback has accumulated, but that doesn’t mean a fantasy owner can’t use the rule of 1,500 carries to choose between Rudi Johnson or Jamal Lewis if everything seems equal. Johnson is poised to have a bounce-back season and is resting comfortably at 1,441 carries, while Lewis, whose best years may be behind him, has 2,120.

As with most rules, there are exceptions. A rare few have scoffed at the number 1,500. Emmitt Smith was just getting warmed up when he hit 1,500 carries in 1994. Walter Payton had arguably his greatest season five years after 1,500 carries.

Despite those two, 1,500 carries is hardly a friend to NFL backs, even the great ones.
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