Four fantasy defenses set for letdown in 2008

By Os Davis  |   Sunday, July 20, 2008  |  Comments( 5 )

Fantasy Football
Got something to say?

Log In above and share your thoughts on this topic with other fans!

If defense wins championships, can a bad ‘DST’ break your fantasy team? Absolutely, as this fantasy owner can attest. Saddling my team last year with what was a plausible-sounding tandem of the Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos prior to the season, the mighty fighting Os Holes had in fact drafted a gruesome twosome worth a combined 16.4 fantasy points per game -- more or less the same average garnered by the San Diego Chargers' defense by itself.

After months of cursing the Four Broncos of the Apocalypse – Dre Bly, Champ Bailey, John Lynch and Nick Ferguson and their miserable eight picks combined – Os Holes’ management has decided to apply energy a bit more creatively to take a brief look at some fantasy defenses’ potential fortunes or misfortunes for 2008.

This week, four defenses reckoned to be on the downswing this season. For purposes of this article, the system for scoring defensive fantasy points breaks down like this:

• defensive TD is worth six points, safeties are good for two;

• interceptions and recovered fumbles, two points each;

• sacks, one point per;

• zero to six points scored against equals eight fantasy points; 7-13, six; 14-20, four; 21-27, two points; and

• zero to 49 yards allowed equals 12 fantasy points, 50-99, 10; 100-149, eight; 150-199, six; 200-249, four; and 250-299 is worth two.

New England Patriots. Surely a vogue pick for a drop-off, it’s almost just as surely certain. The only question, it seems, is by how much. Over the 16-0 run and particularly through the first eight games last season, the Patriot defense was simply awesome statistically and an overall triumph for the fantasy owner sharp enough to snap ‘em up early enough. Along with a tremendous 47 sacks and a stingy 17.1 points allowed per game, the Patriot ‘D’ was good for 16.9 fantasy points per game in 2007.

The first thought on the 2008 New England fantasy defense is that the secondary will be completely remade, thereby presumably stripping a few of last season’s 19 interceptions. Meanwhile, while we all await the aged linebacker corps to collapse, most would agree that the 47 mark in sacks probably won’t be topped in 2008.

On the other hand – again this bears repeating – there is the schedule. Look again and imagine the Patriot ‘D’ vs. Kansas City, St. Louis, Arizona, in six games against the AFC East ... that’s nine games against the most feeble, turnover-prone offenses of 2007 and judgment on the new-look Raiders is being kindly withheld here.

So here’s the basic math on the Patriots: Reducing last year’s stats by 1.5 combined interceptions plus sacks leaves this ‘D’ at around 14 fantasy points per game. Nothing to sneeze at, but perhaps on the bubble of the top five.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers. How did the Buccaneers manage to produce one of the league’s top defenses last season? At RealFootball365.com, we’re officially going with “smoke and mirrors.” Despite fielding one of the league’s smallest teams and a mediocre 29:33 opposition time of possession, Tampa Bay somehow held opponents to 16.9 points and 278.4 yards per game – six points per week in fantasy ball. And Bucs fantasy owners could count on another 4.38 points weekly thanks to a whopping 19 fumble recoveries and 16 interceptions.

How? An overly easy schedule? Lots and lots of luck? (For comparison, the Tampa Bay ‘D’ produced as many turnovers in 2007 as the Detroit Lions' offense, the league’s third-most prolific in the category.) Who knows, but until someone can convincingly argue some tangibles about the Buccaneers' defense, the Os Holes aren’t even considering the Bucs the first time around in this year’s fantasy draft.

Chicago Bears. Sad to say that just two years after the unit saved my (and certainly many many other fantasy owners’) bacon on at least three separate occasions in fantasy ball – the Bears' defense is no longer among the elite. Factor in a ho-hum offseason aside from the re-signing of Lance Briggs, a still-lame offense that won’t keep the ‘D’ off the field, no gamebreaker in the secondary (Brian Urlacher led the team with five interceptions last year), and a seemingly improved Minnesota Vikings outfit and you’ve got ... a second-string defense for fantasy teams in deeper leagues. Playing with a ‘DST’ spot makes the Bears and Superman, a.k.a. Devin Hester, tempting, but the return man is definitely swimming upstream statistically on this squad.

San Francisco 49ers. Can things really get worse for the ineffectual, heartbreakingly disappointing 49er ‘D’? Oh yes, lone standout Patrick Willis' opinion notwithstanding. Truth is, the San Francisco defense appears to be starting the season in a lose-lose situation statistically, thanks to the offense. How’s that? Suppose new O-coordinator Mike Martz somehow resurrects Alex Smith and Frank Gore to their potential with a snappy new point-a-minute offense (look how he inflated the Lions’ offensive stats in two years there); the undertalented 49er ‘D’ will simply bend but not break while still giving up points and yardage in gobs. If Smith & Co. stay true to form, the 49ers' defense could well again see the second-most plays from scrimmage and be on the field a ridiculous 33:31 per game. Don’t touch this ‘D’ (or ‘DST’, for that matter) with a 10-yard pole.

Ready for the draft (or ready as we’ll ever be) throughout the year at RealFootball365.com
Got something to say?

Log In above and share your thoughts on this topic with other fans! (5)

About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's ...
read more
Article Tools Share!   |  RSS  |  Bleacher Report About Bleacher Report