My No. 1 fantasy football pick

By Os Davis  |   Sunday, July 29, 2007  |  Comments( 9 )

Fantasy Football
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The proper fantasy football coach knows the No. 1 rule of successful rotisserie ownership by rote: "Don't be a homer" i.e. think twice about mindlessly stocking your roster with players from your favorite team and/or your favorite players.

But you know what? To hell with conventional wisdom. Though the RealFootball365 fantasy league has yet to open training camp, this owner has recently come to a crucial decision: I'm again putting my money -- which is to say my fragile ego and dissipating reputation -- where my mouth is.

Larry Who? LaDainian What? (Come to think of it, what is a "LaDainian," anyway?) This season, the Wizards of Os, with their No. 1 pick in the draft, will be selecting Frank Gore of the San Francisco 49ers. Call me crazy, call me irresponsible, but by season's end, you may be calling me champion.

The argument? Well, aside from the fact that preseason prognostication often consists of essentially carbon-copying last year's results and jiggling a few second-place teams into third and vice versa, repeat performances of individuals and teams are rare. Right now, an overwhelming number of power polls have the Chicago Bears repeating out of the NFC; mock fantasy drafts nearly as one have L.T. and L.J. going one and two, just as they did last season. (Of course, this was before the announcement of the Priest Holmes comeback...)

Admittedly, last season, such predictions on NFL halfbacks were correct. Few figured on Gore's monster sophomore season, however, and those who did -- certainly many homers among them -- were well-rewarded.

After all, who would have predicted that, in the wake of Kevan Barlow, Gore would turn in the single greatest performance by a halfback in 49er history?

Seriously, do folks realize that Gore added 485 yards receiving to his 1,695 rushing? (For sake of comparison, Tomlinson had 506 receiving yards, Johnson 410.) That Gore's average was an insane 5.4 yards per carry, third in the NFL and first among those with 200 or more carries? (Had the 49ers given him the ball 36 more times to match L.T.'s carries, Gore would have run up just under 1,900 yards.) Have people forgotten that Gore was fourth overall in total yards? That he led the NFC in rushing yardage, for Walter Payton's sake?

In the fantasy football sphere, the disadvantage of Gore last season was clear. For all of his ball-handling, the first-year starter definitely wounded the faithful with just eight TDs against six fumbles lost. Ouch.

Because many figure the 49ers to win the NFC West this year or at least see some serious improvement on both ends of the ball, can't we figure that San Francisco will improve on a dismal 24th-place scoring offense and therefore get Gore into the end zone more often? (Were they really outscored by the Buffalo Bills last year? Sheesh.) And if Terrell Owens and his terminal case of the dropsies be given the benefit of the doubt, shouldn't we assume Gore will find a way to hold on to the football in 2007?

What's incredible about these negatives is that Gore remained comparable to the big boys on yardage alone and was still considered a top-four or -five halfback.

And again, speaking of Gore's monogrammed competition, surely L.T. and L.J. won't be matching their performances of 2006. Tomlinson had a career year to end all career years while Johnson has carried more footballs over the past two seasons than a Wilson sporting goods warehouse. Surely, the punishment of the Kansas City Chiefs' one-dimensional offense will be eroding L.J.'s stats this season and beyond.

The 49ers, on the other hand, are adding weapons to the arsenal. Alex Smith now has Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie to throw to, so Gore won't be leading the team in receptions this year, but he should see a heck of a lot more light coverage on short routes. A deep offensive line was augmented by first-round rookie OT Joe Staley and Eric Heitmann will be back at center, a big hole on last year's line which ranked just 26th on third-down offense.

Remember, you heard it here first: The No. 1 fantasy player in the NFL this season will be Frank Gore, and the Wizards of Os will draft accordingly.

(Then again, there's always Reggie Bush...)

See you in the championship!

Fearless proclamation and prognostication at RealFootball365.com all year round.
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's ...
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