Is any fantasy Lion worth a damn?

By Os Davis  |   Wednesday, July 16, 2008  |  Comments( 7 )

Detroit Lions
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In the never-ending (OK, August-ending) quest to analyze every single player in the NFL so that my fantasy team might actually show signs of life this year, today this writer takes a look at the high-flying, high-stat Detroit Lions in hopes of finding a gem. Wish me luck.

Ladies and gentlemen, your fantasy Lions for 2008 include ...

Quarterback. Firstly, let’s assume that the Fords keep the checkbook in pocket and that Brett Favre doesn’t land in Detroit. What of Jon Kitna, apparent statistical monster?

In Detroit’s seriously pass-happy offense, Kitna ended up sixth in yardage (4,068 or 254.2 yards per game) and fifth in attempts (561 total or 35.1 per) last year. It is unfortunate, then, that the man’s fantasy stats are at the behest of panic the great majority of the time: Kitna threw 20 picks against just 18 TDs in 2007. His total fantasy production ended up at just about 11 points per game. To make matters worse, in the season’s second half, when the Lions faced bona fide playoff contenders weekly and Kitna was turning in five-pick performances against the likes of the San Diego Chargers, that fantasy average drops to 9.8 per game. And after taking more than 97 percent of snaps over the past two seasons in Detroit while suffering 110-plus sacks, does anyone else think Kitna’s due for a season-shortening injury?

Though consistent, Kitna is probably no better than a No. 2 fantasy QB in small- to medium-sized leagues.

Running back. Last year, Tatum Bell reckoned it’d been implied that he would start for the Lions with Kevin Jones suffering a Lisfranc fracture. Jones returned quicker than expected, however, Bell got miffed and head coach Rod Marinelli saw to it that Bell grabbed bench for the remainder of the season. Then in a bizarre turn of events, the Lions cut their four-year project in Jones and re-signed Bell for a single season. Can you say “imminent career year”? ‘Cause that’s what Bell would appear to be in line for.

Except that this is Detroit, which means usually playing from behind, which means passing, passing, passing. The Lions' offense has been high-flying out of necessity since Jones was seen to be not all that three years ago; in the past two seasons, the Lions have opted for a pass play 60.8 and 61.9 percent of the time. Statistically speaking, it’s difficult to produce a fantasy starter on 150-180 carries per season.

Even if Bell were to carry the ball on two-thirds of Detroit’s average 314 running plays (and how long would it take opposing defenses to key on that?) for 227 carries – he managed 233 in 13 games for the Denver Broncos in 2006 – the Lions halfback might reproduce his peak-year stats: 1,130 total yards, two TDs, and three fumbles for 9.2 fantasy points per game. Sounds like a fantasy No. 3 or 4 back to me.

Wide receiver. Detroit boasts a Pro Bowl-level WR in Roy Williams and a straight-up stud in Calvin Johnson. The problem in terms of fantasy is, of course, that they have both. After a serious breakout year in 2006, Williams saw all his stats decrease in 2007, going from 1,310 to 838 yards and from seven TDs to five; even factoring in three games lost to injury, Williams' fantasy points per game dropped from 10.75 to 7.11.

Meanwhile, more than a few fantasy owners certainly had Johnson at No. 2 receiver going into the season. While Johnson was a sensation early with two receiving TDs in the first two games – and both Lions wins to boot – the haphazard Detroit game plan and quickly adapting NFL defenses ensured that didn’t see 60 yards in 10 of the next 11 weeks. Heck, after Week 2, Johnson produced just three noteworthy fantasy games (Week 11, 10 points; Week 12, 14 points; and Week 15, 10 points – all in losing efforts).

In 2008, the Lions will certainly be passing often. Williams is entering a career year and could make Kitna-to-Williams one of the top batteries in the league statistically; Williams might be considered a respectable No. 2 fantasy WR. It’s tougher to tell with Johnson: It appears as though Johnson has a future in the NFL, but we’ve thought that about bonus-baby Lions at WR before.

Tell you what: In keeper leagues, take either one. In draft leagues, either seems an OK bet. Oh, and one more thing: Detroit’s leader in receptions last year was Shaun McDonald. (Who?)

Tight end. Let’s see, the Lions currently list Dan Campbell, Casey Fitzsimmons, Michael Gaines, Sean McHugh and John Owens ... Next!

Kicker. Though the standings didn’t necessarily reveal so, the 2007 Lions could score, and who better to put in the set-it-and-forget-it fantasy league position than Jason Hanson? With a lifetime accuracy percentage of over 80, Hanson has missed one game in 16 seasons on Detroit. Last season, he tied for fifth in the NFL at 29 field goals and added 35 XPs; the numbers were good enough to make Hanson the ninth overall scorer and eighth among kickers. Eighth-best fantasy kicker in the league behind the guys on New England, Dallas, Green Bay, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Seattle and (wait a minute) Chicago? That’s about right for 2008, too.

Defense. After ranting about this particular aspect of the sad-sack Lions for weeks, this writer’s got nothing left for this column. Truth is, even with improvement, you’re not taking Detroit at ‘DST’ unless you’re in a 16-team league and/or you’re left with a selection of Lions, Dolphins and Jets. And even then, you’re benching them 16 weeks out of 17.

Fantasizing on football throughout the year at RealFootball365.com
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's ...
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