What have you done for me lately, LT?

By Lou DiPietro  |   Wednesday, December 03, 2008  |  Comments( 2 )

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*Before this week’s musings, a small retraction: Last week, I said that no team from the West divisions had won a game in the Eastern time zone this year. Blame it on the pre-holiday frenzy, but that was incorrect. I meant to say that no team from the Pacific time zone had accomplished the feat. As faithful reader Alan pointed out, St. Louis’ win over the Redskins came in Washington, so my statement as is was false. Of course, both points were made moot over the weekend when Denver beat the Jets in the Meadowlands and the 49ers won in Buffalo; so, really, I guess we all win.

Now for other matters. . .

In an NFL season where players have gotten suspended for everything from fighting their own bodyguards to shooting themselves, Brett Favre and Kurt Warner are defying Father Time as MVP candidates and 7-5 currently leads not one, not two but three divisions, there’s another bizarre story that has flown under the radar -- until now.

What the hell has happened to LaDainian Tomlinson?

The San Diego Chargers sit at 4-8 -- a record that somehow has them in second place and still with a slim chance to win the AFC West. And you can blame their problems on a lot of different things.

For one, there’s the defense. While the Giants have seemingly gotten stronger after losing Osi Umenyiora, the Chargers’ defense has crumbled without Shawne Merriman. Shaun Phillips and Jyles Tucker (who?) share the team lead with only four sacks apiece, and through 12 games, the team has a total of seven interceptions -- three fewer than the amount put up last season by Antonio Cromartie alone.

There have also been a few bad breaks, such as Ed Hochuli’s blown call in the Denver game, and seven of their eight losses have been by five points or fewer -- four of which came in the final minute. But that’s to be expected from a Jekyll-and-Hyde team; one week the Chargers crush the Jets, while the next week it takes a stupid call by Herm Edwards to keep them from going to overtime against the Chiefs.

But in the midst of all that is the plight of L.T.

If there’s one thing San Diego hasn’t lacked this year, it’s offense. Again, they’re about 30 seconds and a couple plays away from being 8-4. Sure, Chris Chambers has been hurt, but Vincent Jackson (39 catches, 703 yards and five TDs) has stepped up and Antonio Gates (46 catches, 534 yards and six scores) is having his usual solid season. Throwing them the ball is Philip Rivers, who has tossed a career-high 23 touchdowns, is second in the NFL to Tony Romo in QB rating (100.5), and he’s on pace for career marks in yards and completion percentage.

Maybe if Tomlinson were picking up the slack, the Chargers would in fact be 8-4.

Through Week 13, Tomlinson has 217 carries for 794 yards and six touchdowns. While that may be good for a back on any run-of-the-mill 4-8 team, L.T. is no run-of-the-mill back. And it’s not like the Chargers have to throw more because they’re always down -- just look at their box scores for proof of that.

No, whether it’s nagging injuries, defenses finally figuring him out after eight years or just plain fatigue, Tomlinson just isn’t the same back. This is a guy who after seven years was in the top 20 all-time in rushing, third all time in rushing TDs (and sixth in overall TDs) and easily on pace to become the NFL’s greatest rusher by age 33 or 34.

And then 2008 hit.

He has been held to fewer than 15 carries four times this year, and in those contests he’s been contained to 41 yards or fewer. In fact, Tomlinson has reached the magical 100-yard plateau only twice this season -- against Oakland and New Orleans, with a narrow miss of 97 against Carolina -- and his season high is 106 in the Raider game. And to really hammer it home, in a game against Atlanta where he faced former protege Michael Turner, Tomlinson amassed only 27 yards on 17 carries. That 1.7 per-rush average is paltry for a man whose career mean of 4.5 is nearly three times that. To add insult to injury, Turner ran for 130 yards as the Falcons beat the Chargers in San Diego.

If you look at Tomlinson's statistics in 2007, though, there’s an even more disturbing reality: This year might not be a fluke.

Through Week 12 last year, Tomlinson had a similar resume -- 872 yards, nine touchdowns and only a pair of 100-yard games. Of course, he turned it on down the stretch, rushing for 606 yards and six scores as the Chargers ran the table and won the AFC West.

This definitely isn’t normal for a guy who has made an art form out of smashing records. In his MVP season of 2006, he had nine straight 100-yard games -- nearly cracking 200 against Kansas City -- and found the end zone via the ground 28 times. His 1,815 yards far and away led the league and was better than the best single-season total put up by Marcus Allen, Tony Dorsett or even all-time rushing leader Emmitt Smith.

If he can’t turn it around, Tomlinson projects out (based on current averages) to 290 carries, 1,059 yards and eight TDs. L.T. has never had fewer than 313 carries, and in his worst statistical season -- 2001, his rookie year -- he still put up 1,236 yards and 10 touchdowns on a team that lost nine in a row and finished 5-11.

Normally, we’d be talking about L.T. being in contention for a rushing title. Instead, he sits 14th, and look at some of the names ahead of him. There are Matt Forte and Steve Slaton, rookies on .500 or worse teams. There’s Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams and Brandon Jacobs -- all of whom share time with another back currently in the top 25 in rushing. And there’s Turner, his former backup, whose 1,208 yards is third in the NFL. Oh, yeah, Turner’s also tied for the league lead with 13 TDs.

So what’s to blame for this slide? It’s hard to say. It’s definitely not San Diego’s offense. But a running back’s fall from grace is often swift and sudden. One day you’re on top of the league, while the next you’re backing up the next big thing. Perhaps Jim Brown, Tiki Barber and Barry Sanders were on to something when they retired at age 31.

If Tomlinson's not careful, he might not even make it until then -- and he’s already 29.

While his former backup looks like he could be the next L.T., the first one needs to step it up before he becomes the next Shaun Alexander -- who, after his MVP season, put up two injury-plagued and mediocre years before being cut in the midst of a hefty contract. The same Shaun Alexander who looks to be done at age 31 after being signed and released by the Redskins within a month.

Alexander’s done, L.T. is having his worst season and Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1? Maybe the “Madden Curse” has some new competition. But that’s another column for another day.
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About Lou DiPietro

Lou DiPietro is an accomplished freelance writer who is fascinated with all things sports. In addition to his duties at RealFootball365.com, Lou contributes to TheBleacherReport.com and Pro Wrestling Illustrated magazine, and has been featured on "The Sports Buffet with Matt West" on 1080-AM ESPN ...
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