Home-field disadvantage?

By Lou DiPietro | Wednesday, January 14, 2009 | ( 1 )

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For 17 weeks, NFL teams play their hearts out in the hopes that they'll get to the playoffs. More importantly, those who stand out above the rest play even harder late in the season so they can nail down the ever-important first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage.

Come next season, teams might want to rethink that strategy.

Heading into this weekend, betting the farm on the Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles to be your Super Bowl XLIII participants might not be a bad idea -- if we here at RF365.com condoned betting, that is. But with eight of 10 playoff games in the books, home teams have an unimpressive record of 3-5. Even worse, the four teams that garnered first-round byes went 1-3 in the divisional round, with only the Pittsburgh Steelers advancing to conference championship weekend.

On wild-card weekend, all four home teams were underdogs. While you can somewhat expect and understand that in a season where an 8-8 team won its division in Week 17 and a 9-7 club won its handily, the fact remains that only two -- those 8-8 Chargers and 9-7 Cardinals, and not the 11-5 Dolphins or 10-6 Vikings -- were victorious. It was even worse this past weekend, when three of the four best teams in the NFL according to record lost on their home field.

And so, for the first time in 30 years, the Super Bowl will feature a team that won fewer than 10 games in a full regular season. What’s particularly troubling is that the NFC championship game, in addition to that nugget, has two other bizarre stats: Arizona is the first four seed to ever host the conference title, while Philadelphia is the first six seed to make it to the NFC's final round. Compare that last stat to college basketball, and it’s like a 16 beating a No. 1 in the NCAA tournament -- it’s never happened. Never. Until now, that is. Even if the AFC followed suit, it would be in the same boat; why, you ask? Because both six seeds are in their respective conference title clashes.

This isn’t exactly an aberration, either. It’s more of a growing trend. In fact, it seems in recent years that it’s almost better for your favorite team to chant “We’re Number Five!” instead of the usual number associated with that statement.

For the last three years, the following seeds have won the Super Bowl: Six, three, five. 2008 sees a 75 percent chance of a four or lower to continue that trend.

In those three years, the top seeds have fallen under the feast-or-famine principle. From 2005-2007, three top seeds lost in the Super Bowl, while the other three have lost in the divisional round. Counting this year’s disappointment, that gives your top seeds (and home-field avengers) a whopping 6-8 record in the playoffs over the last four seasons.

It’s not much better for the two seeds, either, which stand at 4-7 in the playoffs over that same span; thus, even if Pittsburgh wins the Super Bowl, its aggregate record will remain under .500. Further going against the Steelers this weekend? No second seed has even made the Super Bowl since the 2003 Patriots accomplished the feat. Moreover, trends also show that in this time span, one second seed loses in the divisional round, while the other loses on conference championship weekend.

Feeling confident on betting Baltimore yet? At least Pittsburgh has one thing going for it. That is, the last time the Super Bowl did have a nine-win team, it was the 1979 Rams -- who lost to the Steelers in Super Bowl XIV.

So what’s the reason for this? On paper, the top four seeds should have a better showing. Parity be damned, they proved over a four-month span that they were the best teams in their respective conferences, and yet they can’t back it up in the playoffs.

Perhaps it’s just the nature of sports. After all, it’s very rare that all four top seeds advance to the NCAA Basketball Final Four, and 2008 was the first year since 2001 that a wild-card team didn’t make the World Series (and half of those six in between were won by wild cards).

Perhaps, though, it’s something else -- the fact that the only certainty the top seeds have is the location of their first game.

Sure, the week off and knowledge that you don’t necessarily have to leave home are nice comforts, but it’s not as if they can prepare. Upsets happen; the top seed only knows it won’t play the three, and likewise, the two only knows it won’t play the six. Beyond that again, the one at least knows home-field advantage and the two knows it either stays home or goes to the number one.

But those aren’t exactly luxuries. Because even as playoff possibilities shuffle, the three and six seeds -- which might be the best, in this writer’s opinion -- have just as much (if not more) advance knowledge of their postseason schedule than the top seeds do.

For the six seed, it’s simple: You won’t see your home stadium again. You know you’re playing a division winner on the road, and if you win, you’re going to the top seed’s home stadium. Should you get to the conference finale, you know it’s back on the road again to play whichever club is left. If you make the Super Bowl, you’ve earned it, because you’ve beaten three division winners on the road -- and are most likely to play a fourth in the big game at the end.

As for the three, circumstances are a little “worse” but not much. You know you get a home game against the “worst” team in your conference, and if you win, you’re going on the road to face the second seed. Their big difference is a small shred of doubt that’s also a small light at the end of the tunnel -- if you make the conference title tilt, you know it’s either a home game or a road contest at the top seed.

Plus, there’s something to be said for having to struggle to get into and survive the playoffs. Sure, Arizona -- which won its division in early December and got crushed the rest of the way -- is an exception to the rule this year, but look at what happens to teams that wrap things up early. This year, the Giants -- who were 11-1 on Dec. 1 -- went 1-3 over the final month (their only win being the game against Carolina that determined their seeding). For Tennessee, it was much the same. They started 10-0 and went 3-3 down the stretch -- with their three wins against Detroit, Cleveland and Pittsburgh in the game that determined home-field advantage.

Last year, Tampa Bay got complacent and it cost the Bucs dearly. Yet the nearly perfect Patriots, who kept their foot on the throttle at all times last year, cruised into the Super Bowl and nearly completed the unthinkable of 19-0.

All in all, it’s a crap shoot. For the Steelers, at least, they’re hoping it’s not bird crap -- because this kind, whether it be Raven, Cardinal or Eagle, isn’t necessarily lucky.

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	About Lou DiPietro Lou DiPietro is an accomplished freelance writer who is fascinated with all things sports. In addition to his duties at RealFootball365.com, Lou contributes to TheBleacherReport.com and Pro Wrestling Illustrated magazine, and has been featured on "The Sports Buffet with Matt West" on 1080-AM ESPN...
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