Draft preview: It’s not when you go, it’s where

By Lou DiPietro | Tuesday, March 24, 2009 | ( 1 )

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You see it every year at the NFL draft. For a good three hours, ESPN’s analysts spotlight that one lonely guy still in the green room as the first round progresses, sitting there and wondering why he wasn’t selected higher. Whether it be because teams have other needs pop up, the player has off-the-field issues (legal, personal or both) or teams just don’t need his services, that poor guy has to wait and wait, losing money and prestige as every name that’s not his is called.

This year, the sexy stock dropping like a rock is Alabama offensive tackle Andre Smith. Six weeks ago, the reigning Outland Trophy winner was a hot commodity who was a lock to be a top three pick and possibly the No. 1 overall selection. Then issues about his weight surfaced, he left the combine without saying goodbye to anybody, and he became America’s favorite head case.

Things got so out of hand that some pundits have said he may not even be selected in the first round, and lower-rated tackles like Arizona’s Eben Britton and Ole Miss standout Michael Oher shot up teams’ draft boards. In perusing several dozen mock drafts over the weekend, I’ve seen him as high as fifth and as low as 16th, and in our first RF365.com mock, Connor Byrne has him going at No. 10 overall to the San Francisco 49ers.

Now, as insignificant as that drop may seem, the disparity between going in the top three and barely making the top 10 is huge in the draft. Like, millions of dollars huge. But what everyone forgets is that it’s not when you go; rather, it’s where you go and how you play when you get there.

Should he go to San Francisco, yes, he’ll lose out on money, getting a smaller contract than he would have if he landed in Detroit, St. Louis or Kansas City. But that could be a good thing. For guys like Smith -- and anyone else who may be stuck in the green room past dinnertime on April 25 -- there’s hope. I mean, just look at these three past precedents:

Randy Moss, 1998: Scouts knew Moss was going to be a star all the way back to his high school days. But the rap sheet he acquired between 1995-1998 made him look more suitable for lockup than minicamp, and that cost him on Draft Day.

He originally committed to Notre Dame, but the Irish revoked his scholarship after a racially motivated fight. He went to Florida State, but a positive marijuana test and a probation violation forced the Seminoles to drop him too. He finally landed at Marshall, where he dominated the competition for two years, but because the Thundering Herd played in Division I-AA at the time, the competition was suspect.

Even with all that, Moss was considered a high first-round prospect; he wanted to play for Dallas and the Cowboys wanted him, but his off-field issues (potentially magnified by those of then-Cowboy Michael Irvin) helped them decide to pass on Moss. The Cowboys took DE Greg Ellis with the eighth pick instead, and Moss dropped all the way to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 21.

How’d that work out, you ask? Well, Ellis is still a Cowboy and a good one, but while Dallas has seen its share of good to excellent receivers, none of them are Moss. In 11 years, Randy has recorded nine 1,000-yard seasons; by comparison, Dallas receivers have a combined total of eight in that span, with one of them belonging to tight end Jason Witten.

Moss was the second receiver taken in that draft, as Tennessee passed on a man who has so far racked up 843 catches, 13,204 yards and 135 TDs to select Kevin Dyson. While Dyson was serviceable and has played in as many Super Bowls as Moss (one), his six-year career totals of 178 grabs, 2,325 yards and 18 TDs don’t even match what Moss has put up during his two seasons in New England.

Warren Sapp, 1995: While Sapp’s rap sheet pales in comparisons to Moss’ laundry list, this tag still applies. After a standout career at Miami, Sapp had some personality issues that cost him a shot at possibly even being the top overall pick in the 1995 draft. And so he sat in the green room.

Now, if you’re reading this, I don’t think I need to tell you Sapp’s career numbers. Seven-time Pro Bowler, Super Bowl champion, second-most sacks all time by a DT (96.5) and, last but not least, a runner-up finish on “Dancing with the Stars.”

Yet because of a little trouble, he dropped all the way to the Buccaneers at No. 12 in 1995. Philadelphia wanted him, but it instead chose to draft defensive end Mike Mamula with the eighth pick. The Vikings took a DT at No. 11, but it was a rival of Sapp’s from the Sunshine State -- Florida State’s Derrick Alexander.

Good thing for the Buccaneers. Mamula lasted six years and 31.5 sacks before injuries cut his career short, while Alexander didn’t even last that long; he retired after five disappointing seasons and went to work in the Cleveland front office. Meanwhile, Sapp became one of the greatest defensive tackles in NFL history.

Aaron Rodgers, 2005: And finally, we have Rodgers, who fell victim to perhaps the worst reason of all drops -- no one needed him. As late as the week before the 2005 draft, it was still a tossup between Rodgers and Alex Smith as to whom the 49ers would select first overall. They eventually went with Smith, and Rodgers sat…and sat…and sat, simply because there were 22 other teams that didn’t need a quarterback that direly. Half of them had drafted a “franchise” QB within the last few years, while others had huge needs that could be filled with another player.

Finally, the Green Bay Packers -- a team that also didn’t really need a QB just yet -- took Rodgers as little more than a long-term insurance policy for Brett Favre.

Oddly enough, their careers are almost parallel, but for completely different reasons. While Smith was given every chance to become the next Joe Montana, his career in San Francisco has been a bust. He’s only stayed healthy for one full season -- 2006, when he put up only 2,890 yards and 16 TDs against 16 INTs. He would’ve been a backup in 2008, but a shoulder injury sidelined him for the whole year. Instead, J.T. O’Sullivan and Shaun Hill shared the job, leading the Niners to as many wins as Smith ever has (seven).

Rodgers, meanwhile, spent three years reliving those hours in the green room -- riding the pine while Brett Favre continued to be Brett Favre. Finally, after a handful of mop-up appearances, Rodgers was given the keys to the offense in 2008. He responded with 4,038 yards and 28 TD passes, more than Smith had done in three years in San Fran. While Green Bay struggled to a 6-10 finish, Rodgers looks poised to be on the cusp of greatness while Smith hopes his shoulder doesn’t fall apart on any given throw.

So, as you watch the draft this year, and watch Andre Smith or someone else sit and wait for their name to be called, don’t feel sorry for them; they could turn out to be the next Randy Moss, Warren Sapp or Aaron Rodgers -- which will be awesome if it’s your team that snags them.

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	About Lou DiPietro Lou DiPietro is an accomplished freelance writer who is fascinated with all things sports. In addition to his duties at RealFootball365.com, Lou contributes to TheBleacherReport.com and Pro Wrestling Illustrated magazine, and has been featured on "The Sports Buffet with Matt West" on 1080-AM ESPN...
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