Free NFL Picks for Week 4

By Todd L. Frank  |   Friday, October 02, 2009  |  Comments( 0 )

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It’s time to give you some free picks for Week 4. Not every game is listed, just what I think are some of the best bets. These free picks are against the most current point spreads as of Thursday evening.

The best bet is the first team listed; home team is in CAPS. But first a few words before we get to this week’s free picks.

Although they weren’t among my picks, last week I wrote “Washington seems like just the team to lose to the Lions this weekend in Detroit. Sure, Washington should be and probably IS better than they’ve shown, but I can seem them losing this week…” Also, I gave you the 49ers covering the spread and said I could see them beating the Vikings (which they shoulda/coulda done, save for that miracle finish), and I also wondered why Arizona was favored over Indy and told you take the points for an easy win. So, you’re welcome. And yes, I’m patting myself on the back and hopefully not jinxing my hot streak going into the Week 4 Free NFL Picks. Here they are:

FREE PICKS and BEST BETS:

Cincinnati -5.5 at CLEVELAND
The Bengals aren’t traditionally a team you feel good about taking when they’re giving points on the road. But they are solid and feeling confident after beating the Steelers last week. The Browns are a mess, switching QB’s, possibly already quitting on new coach Eric Mangini, and just a bad football team. Playing at home wont help Cleveland, cuz the boobirds will come out and there’s a decent chance that a nice contingency of Bengals fans might make the trip up to Cleveland. Good teams beat bad teams, and Cincy is a fluky tipped-pass catch/run away from being undefeated. Give the points.

SAN FRANCISO -9.5 vs. St. Louis
That’s a lot of points in a divisional game with the Niners starting running back out. Won’t matter. Their backup RB is good and the Rams are horrible and QB Marc Bulger is out, so that means Kyle Boller will be facing that solid 49er defense on the road. Mike Singletary and his team will be fired up and ready to bounce back after that horrific stomach-punch loss last week in Minnesota.

New York Giants -9 at KANSAS CITY
Once again, a lot of points on the road. So let me just copy/paste from last week’s Giants pick and just change the opponent name: “But the Giants are good and KC is not. New York is too smart to slip up on the road against an inferior opponent.”

Dallas -3 at DENVER
OK so the Cowboys beat a bad Carolina team at home on Monday Night Football and they’ve got the world’s biggest TV in their stadium. But what have they really done to earn being favored on the road against an undefeated Broncos team? Sure, Denver hasn’t played any really great teams yet. Guess what, they aren’t playing a great team this week either. Take the points.

New York Jets +7 at NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are good, and Drew Brees and the offense can score in bunches. But 7 points is just too much in a big game between two good teams and way too much with that great Jets defense involved. The Saints will likely win, and they might score enough to cover, but the smart play is to take the Jets and the points.

The B-W Teaser
The I-95 Teaser. The Beltway Teaser. Alright, all these names are stupid. But as you know the teaser moves the line 6 points in your teams favor, so you’d have Baltimore +7.5 at New England and Washington -1 at home against Tampa Bay. I think the Ravens could certainly beat the Patriots outright, but I KNOW they can cover the spread getting 8. Of course, Washington stinks and they lost to Detroit and Jim Zorn is on the hot seat and people think they could lose at home to the Bucs. But Tampa is really bad and they are turning to Josh (Who?) Johnson at QB. This isn’t their promising rookie Josh Freeman. It’s Josh (Who?) Johnson. So Washington, in front of a tepid and angry home crowd, will finally look decent and get a solid win and trick the fans into thinking “Hmm, we’re 2-2, we’re still in the mix, we can turn this around.” (They wont, but they’ll win this week.)

MINNESOTA -3.5 vs. Green Bay
Oh boy. The Monday Night Favreapalooza. Yikes. I think ESPN’s Hype Machine will easily break and possibly explode leading up to this game. If you look at my previous columns, you’ll see that I don’t really like Brett Favre. I hope he loses this game. But the Vikings are a good team with a rock solid defense and a great running back. The Packers are pretty good too. But at home on MNF, coming off that last-second TD pass for the win last week, the Vikings have the momentum and perhaps that miracle play by Favre might have his teammates believing that they’ve got something special and they'll be pumped to get this win. But throw all the Favre business out the window. Minnesota is the better team. And Vegas is in the business of trying to set the spreads to get even action on both sides, NOT predict what will happen. So 3.5 makes a lot of people think Vegas is predicting a nip/tuck close battle that could be decided by a field goal, so they all figure it could go either way and they all take the 3.5 and bet on the Pack. Then Vegas takes all their money when Adrian Peterson and the Vikes get a 7 point lead and the defense shuts down GB’s attempts to come back and Minnesota sails on to victory and covers the spread.

That’s it for this week’s free picks and best bets. As always, try to avoid that annoying dancing robot guy on Fox, and enjoy the games.

Last Week: 5-1
Season Total: 17-5
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