Week 6 Free NFL Picks

By Todd L. Frank | Friday, October 16, 2009 | ( 0 )

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It's time to give you some free picks for Week 6. Not every game is
listed, just what I think are some of the best bets. These free picks
are against the most current point spreads as of Thursday evening.

Struggled a bit here last week. Four wins, 2 losses, and 1 tie. Not bad,
but not great. Speaking of not great, there are some awful NFL teams
these days. Betting against the Raiders, Rams, Buccaneers, Bills, and
Chiefs seems like easy money, even with the spreads getting higher every week. Cleveland is likely in that group, the Lions are a charter member (but they seem a little feisty this year), and Washington could join that group if they lose at home to Kansas City this week. On the flip
side, other than the Giants, maybe the Saints and Vikings, there's no
lights-out dominant team to rely on. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are both
very good, but have shown that they are beatable. Denver is still
undefeated, but not quite dominators. Same for the Colts. NE and NYJ are good, but beatable. Well the Ravens visit the Vikings and the Giants are at the Saints, so we'll know more by the end of this weekend's action. So let's get right to the Week 6 Free NFL Picks and Best Bets.

The best bet is the first team listed; home team is in CAPS:

Ravens +3 at MINNESOTA
The Vikings look good in all facets of the game, and are undefeated and
playing at home while Baltimore is coming off two tough losses in a row.
Of course I'd love to be getting 3.5 points in this one, but I think
Baltimore could possibly win this game outright. They match up a little
bit better with the Vikings and Lord Favre is due to throw one up for
grabs and Ed Reed will be there when it happens. Take the points in what should be a good game.

NY Giants +3 at NEW ORLEANS
Game of the week between NFC powers. Seems like this could go either way, but I can't resist taking the points with a really good Giants
team.

The PA Turnpike Blowout Teaser
Paraphrasing from last week's Eagles/Giants teaser: Pittsburgh and
Philadelphia should easily crush the Browns and Raiders, respectively,
and could even cover the big 14 point spreads. But just to be safe,
let's tease them both down to 8 for the easy money.

ATLANTA -3 vs. the Bears
The Falcons got a big win last week at San Francisco and will be jacked up for a rare home TV night game. Should be enough to win and cover the spread against Chicago.

NEW YORK Jets -9.5 vs. the Bills
The Jets will want to show and prove they are better than they looked at
Miami last week. Things are falling apart for Buffalo and now they go on
the road to Giants Stadium where the Jets will pick up some of the magic dust Bruce Springsteen left from his final run of shows there last week and blow the Bills out.

Texans +5 at CINCINNATI
Gut feel pick. This one opened at Cincy -4 and moved up to 5. That means people are betting on the Bengals. But bettors lose. Don't get me wrong, the Bengals are for real, with wins over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and they're a weird tipped-ball last-second TD by the Broncos from being 5-0. But we can also say they're a few close plays from losing to Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. So they could be 2-3. Alright, I'm confusing myself. The point is, it's hard to win a lot of games in a row, especially when you're the Bengals. Houston is up and down, but they can score and Cincy seems due for an emotional let down. Even if they pull out the win, it will likely be by only 3 or 4 points. This game will be 31-28 or 24-20 or 21-17. You get the idea. Go with your gut. Or my gut. Take the points.

The Chiefs +6 at WASHINGTON
OK, I know I started this column saying betting against crappy teams
like Kansas City was easy money, but I really don't trust Washington giving 6 to any team. There's a lot of pressure on Washington to NOT lose this game. They might come through, but they'll squeak by in ugly fashion like they did in home games against the sorry Rams and Bucs. Kansas City covered the spread last week, and Washington looks like they can't even cover their mouths when they choke. Take the points.

Denver +3.5 at SAN DIEGO
Potentially great Monday night clash. The Broncos are due to come back
down to earth and the Chargers are coming off a bye week. Denver's coach was running around the stadium fist-pumping like he'd just won the Super Bowl after last week's win against the Patriots and his old boss Bill Belichick. Hey, I love the enthusiasm, but there's 16 regular season games, and that was only one of 'em. Dial it down a bit Josh. (Actually, screw that, I said I love the enthusiasm, so go for it! I just felt like using "Dial it down a bit Josh.") Anyway, I still love getting more than
3 points with an undefeated team playing a banged up divisional rival
that's been underachieving.

That's it for this week's free picks and best bets. Bundle up and stay warm as the weather changes. Try not to pass out watching the baseball playoffs. Be careful out there. And, as always, try to
avoid that annoying dancing robot guy on Fox, and enjoy the games.

Last Week: 4-2-1
Season Total: 26-9-1

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