Week 7 Free NFL Picks

By Todd L. Frank  |   Friday, October 23, 2009  |  Comments( 0 )

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Once again it's time to give you some free NFL picks for Week 7. Not every game is listed, just what I think are some of the best bets. These free picks are against the most current point spreads as of Thursday evening.

As sad and pathetic as the Washington team has been, it's kinda funny that they have only one less loss than the allegedly mighty Baltimore Ravens. The Titans are really 0-6 and just lost 59-0. The Eagles actually lost to the Raiders. The Saints might be the best team in the league. Where am I?

I gave you a few good bets last week (Houston, Baltimore, Atlanta, Denver all covered) and a couple of duds (the aforementioned Eagles/Raiders game). I'll try to do better this week, so let's get right to it. The Best Bet is the first team listed and the home team is in all CAPS:

Patriots -15 vs. Tampa Bay at London
This game is being played in England. I don't care if it was in Tampa Bay or on the moon, the Patriots hit their "we love to run up the score" stride last week and I can see that continuing against the winless Bucs. It's a big number but a lot of the favorites have been covering these
large spreads most of the year.

Colts -13.5 at ST. LOUIS
Indianapolis is very good, they're coming off a bye, Bob Sanders returns to the defense for the first time this season, Peyton Manning & Co. are good on the road, this road game isn't far from home, and the Colts are a much better team than the Rams. Oh yea, and St. Louis really sucks. Again, big point spread but one of the best teams in the league should cover against one of the worst in the league.

Falcons +4 at DALLAS
Atlanta is looking really solid and the Cowboys have been, eh, just okay and have yet to beat a good team. This number is inflated because the casual fans and betting public have always loved the Cowboys. Plus they are playing at home. But as I've mentioned in this space before, home field advantage isn't what it used to be, especially in that huge new mega-stadium where people are wandering around bars and malls and 2/3 of the stadium is watching the game on a big TV. I think the Falcons might win this game outright, but I'll take the 4 points.

49ers +3 at HOUSTON
Tricky game, cuz I'm not sure if either of these teams is good. Both are a bit inconsistent. San Francisco is coming off a bye, getting Frank Gore back, and looking to start explosive rookie wideout Michael
Crabtree. The Texans got a solid win at Cincinnati last week, and they've generally been decent at home. But I can see them continuing their up and down ways and losing this week to the Niners. I would love to get 3.5, but since I think San Fran can win, taking the 3 points is a solid play.

PITTSBURGH -5 vs. the Vikings
I wasn't gonna include this game, and this is a tough one. Minnesota has looked good and is still undefeated. The Steelers have been a bit up and down, lost a couple of winnable games, and didn't really dominate the bad teams they've beaten. This line opened at 4 and moved up to 5. But Pittsburgh is like Dallas and NE, the public loves them so their lines are inflated. That said, a lot of Steelers games are 3-point games. And I could see a lot of people taking the bait from Vegas and betting on the Vikes cuz they're getting 5 instead of only 3. It becomes a bit too obvious. Every thinks it's a no-brainer to take a really good team getting more than 3 points against a not-so-dominant Pittsburgh team. And then Lord Favre throws a TD to Troy Polamalu. And oh by the way, the Vikings are coming off a big comeback win against a physical Ravens team. Before that was the big emotional MNF win against the Packers. And NEXT week they have the big showdown AT Lambeau. So this weekend they are due to get sucker punched and the Steelers are just the team to do it.

MIAMI +6.5 vs. the Saints
This week's gut feel pick. The Saints are rolling right now. The Dolphins are pretty solid, but they're pass defense isn't great. So New Orleans could certainly blow them out. But I just get this weird sneaky feeling the Dolphins could shock us and actually win. Or at least keep it close and cover the spread at home.

The Teaser:
Green Bay -7; NY Giants -7. Tease them both down to -1. I'm pretty sure that the Giants can win a Sunday night game at home against the Cardinals and same for the Packers winning on the road against a weak Browns team with several starters with the flu.

OK, good luck this week. Don't fall for any balloon hoaxes and we'll be back Monday with a pick for the MNF game.

Last Week: 5-3
Season Total: 31-12-1
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