Vegas Hurting as Big Favorites Cruise

By Todd L. Frank  |   Thursday, October 29, 2009  |  Comments( 0 )

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Apparently this past Sunday was among the worst days ever for the Vegas bookmakers. The public loves to bet favorites like New England, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis. Usually Vegas can just crank the point spreads up past 14 and take the public’s money when inevitably some crappy teams cover these inflated lines. Well this year the big favorites are covering and Vegas is losing.

Teams like Tampa, Cleveland, and St. Louis are so horrible that even with spreads above 16 they still can’t cover. This should be an interesting angle to follow this week and beyond. Keep an eye on the really good and bad teams. Don’t be afraid to give a lot of points in the right situation, but beware of the inflated spreads as Vegas starts posting college-football-like numbers to stop their bleeding.

This week, the Rams play Detroit, so that’s a wash. And a few other craptastically weak teams (Washington, Kansas City, Tampa) are on a bye. But Cleveland is at Chicago, and opened as 13.5-point dog. Not sure I trust Chicago giving that many after that egg they laid last week. The Colts are in action at home; they opened as 11-pt favorites and that line has already moved up to 13. But they are playing San Francisco, not exactly doormats. And San Diego is favored by 16.5! Sure, they're at home vs. the Raiders, but do you trust this Chargers team giving 16.5 to anyone?

Could be an interesting week.
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