Week 8 Free NFL Picks

By Todd L. Frank  |   Friday, October 30, 2009  |  Comments( 0 )

NFL Football News
Got something to say?

Sign Up and be the first to comment on this article!

Once again it's time to give you some free NFL picks for Week 8. Not every game is listed, just what I think are some of the best bets. These free picks are against the most current point spreads as of Thursday evening.

I had a tough week in this space last week, as the Giants home loss killed my tease and the crazy Saints comeback included one extra TD for the cover (but my weird feeling about the Dolphins winning was looking good for most of the game). And then the Lower Potomac Indigenous Peoples managed to punch in a garbage-time TD at the end of their pitiful loss to the Eagles Monday night. So I won 3, lost 4, and got one tie/push when San Francisco’s comeback fell short. I'll try to do better this week, so let's get right to it. The Best Bet is the first team listed and the home team is in all CAPS:

San Francisco +13 at INDIANAPOLIS
Risky pick, cuz the Colts can blow anyone out. But as I noted the other day, Vegas is hurting with all the big favorites (like Indy) covering big point spreads. The public loves the favorites so the bookmakers are continuing to jack the lines higher and higher. Of course 13 isn’t exactly 17.5 or anything, but San Francisco isn’t exactly the Rams or Bucs. They got a spark with Alex Smith coming in at QB, they’ve got a decent defense, and if they can keep the Colts pass rush in check just long enough for Smith to keep connecting with Vernon Davis, San Fran can stay in this one. Take the points.

DALLAS -9.5 vs. Seattle
So last week I dumped on Dallas for being just average and not beating any good teams, blah blah blah. But they looked good beating a solid Falcons team and easily covering the spread. The bye week wasn’t long enough for the Seahawks to get healthy on the offensive line and LB Lofa Tatupu is expected to be out. Dallas should cruise in their second consecutive home game.

Miami +3.5 at NEW YORK Jets
Both teams have had ups and downs this season. Miami went toe-to-toe with one of the league’s best teams in the Saints last week so they have some confidence. Great rivalry and I’ll happily take more than a FG in what should be a close divisional battle.

New York Giants +1 at PHILADELPHIA
This line opened at Eagles -3 and quickly moved to Philly -1. Casual gamblers don't be until Sunday, but the real wise guys are the ones with the money to make a line move 2 full points and they're the only ones betting that early in the week. And they're right. Despite 2 consecutive losses, the Giants are a solid team, while Philly wasn't that impressive outside of 2 big plays against a bad Washington team (and they lost to Oakland the week before that). Sure, the game is in Philly, but the Giants will probably win.

ARIZONA -10 vs. Carolina
The Cardinals return home feeling good after getting a solid road win against the Giants. The Panthers are really struggling this year, and once Kurt Warner & Co. get out to a lead, Jake Delhomme will start throwing it to the guys in the red shirts and Arizona will cover.

THE TEASER: Jacksonville +9 and Under 51 at TENNESSEE
The winless Titans finally turn to Vince Young this week, and are favored over the Jags by 3. Tease that up to 9 and take Jacksonville along with the Under teased up to 51. The Titans will try to keep things simple for Young and rely on the running game. The Jags average 20 points a game while Tennessee averages only 14. I think this one stays under 51 points and Jacksonville should cover getting the 9 points.

BONUS TEASER: Denver/Minnesota
Tease the Broncos up to +9 at Baltimore, and Minnesota up to +9 at Green Bay. The Ravens finally found an offense and now their defense has been looking suspect. After 3 straight losses, they face a must-win against an undefeated Denver team. Baltimore might hand the Broncos their first loss, but it should stay relatively close. The Vikings got their first loss last week at Pittsburgh (who also covered, as I predicted here), and now they play another Favre Game, this time at Lambeau. I’m torn on who will win; the Packers are favored by 3. Taking the Favrekings teased up to +9 seems pretty safe.

OK, good luck this week. Don't forget to turn your clocks back an hour this weekend and we'll be back Monday with a pick for the MNF game.

Last Week: 3-4-1
Season Total: 34-16-1
Got something to say?

Sign Up and be the first to comment on this article! (0)

Article Tools Share!   |  RSS  |  Bleacher Report About Bleacher Report