Free NFL Picks, Week 9

By Todd L. Frank  |   Friday, November 06, 2009  |  Comments( 0 )

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Once again it's time to give you some free NFL picks for Week 9. Not every game is listed, just what I think are some of the best bets. These free picks are against the most current point spreads as of Thursday evening.

While I still have a decent winning record for the season, the last two weeks I’ve gone 6-9-1. Not good. We’re starting to figure out some teams, so hopefully things will get easier. Poor media. The Vikings are on a bye so they won’t be able to fawn over Brett Favre this week. Alright, let’s get to the free picks. As usual, the Best Bet is the first team listed and the home team is in all CAPS:

Miami +10.5 at NEW ENGLAND
This line just seems too high for a divisional matchup. Miami beat the Jets on the road, and went toe-to-toe with the Saints. Not saying the Dolphins are great or that they’ll beat the Patriots. But I don’t think New England’s back-to-back blowouts (against the Titans in the snow and against a horrible Bucs team in London) mean that all of a sudden the Pats of old are definitively back and worthy of double-digit point spreads over a decent divisional rival. Take the points.

Over 43.5, Baltimore at CINCINNATI
Both teams have balanced offenses that can score points, and the once-mighty Ravens defense has struggled at times this season (though they certainly came to play at home against Denver last week). The Bengals D had looked good but is now without key defensive playmaker Antwan Odom. This should be a thriller that could go either way. I don’t think it will be a crazy 38-35 game, but even a 24-21 game pushes this one over the total.

SAN FRANCISCO -4 vs. Tennessee
Last I checked, the 49ers almost beat the Colts on the road, and the Titans just got their first and only win of the season against a weak Jacksonville team. Vince Young leading a 1-6 team on the road against a well-coached team with a solid defense that’s 5-1-1 against the spread? 49ers should win by at least 7 or more. Give the points.

Under 42, Kansas City at JACKSONVILLE
Two crappy teams in what should be a snoozer. This one smells like 17-9. Of course, if you’re actually wagering money on the Chiefs-Jags over/under then you might want to seek help for a gambling problem.

Houston +9 at INDIANAPOLIS
The Texans have a pulse this year, and while the Colts have been great straight-up AND against the spread, this line seems a little high for a divisional game. Houston is 5-3 and looking to prove something against the bully on the block while the Colts could be looking ahead to next week’s game against the Patriots. Take the points.

Over 52, Carolina at NEW ORLEANS
I should have known better Monday night and taken the Over instead of laying a huge number against a decent Falcons team in a divisional matchup. So I’m going back to what I said I would do earlier in the season: just play the Over in every Saints game.

The Sunday Night Teaser
I actually like the Philly-Dallas game to go Over the total of 48 on its own. But since I usually try to give out at least one teaser, I think teasing Dallas from +3 up to +9 and teasing the Over down to 42 is a pretty safe play. This should be a good game, and taking Dallas +9 teased with Over 42 is a good bet.

OK, good luck this week. PLEASE let’s wait until after Thanksgiving to start all the Christmas hype and we'll be back Monday with a pick for the MNF game.

Last Week: 3-5
Season Total: 37-21-2
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