Week 10 Free NFL Picks

By Todd L. Frank | Friday, November 13, 2009 | ( 1 )

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Once again it's time to give you some free NFL picks for Week 10. Not every game is listed, just what I think are some of the best bets. These free picks are against the most current point spreads as of Friday morning.

We've reached the midway point of the season and we're starting to figure out who's for real. Somehow the Bengals are 6-2, have swept the Ravens, and could complete a sweep of the Steelers with a win this weekend. The Patriots appear to be back and ready to make a run, while the Giants have lost 4 straight after starting 5-0. The Saints and Colts are still undefeated, and hopefully one of them loses soon so we don't have to hear Mercury Morris and those other has beens from the 72 Dolphins start flappin their gums. Or hopefully one of them goes undefeated and wins the Super Bowl to shut up those old Dolphins forever.

Meanwhile, Jay Cutler's stats are worse than Jason Campbell's. Cutler has completed 62% of his passes, with more INT's than TD's, and a passer rating of 76. Campbell has completed 66% of his passes, with more TD's than INT's, and a passer rating of 86. Weird. Anyway, let's get on with the free NFL picks. As usual, the Best Bet is the first team listed and the home team is in all CAPS:

New Orleans -13.5 at ST. LOUIS
One of the best and highest scoring teams in the league is playing one of the very worst teams? And they're gonna play in a dome? And I only have to give less than 2 TD's? Sign me up! Saints have actually struggled to cover the big numbers lately and have fallen behind before coming back to beat lesser competition. Steven Jackson should actually be able to run on the Saints a bit. But none of that scares me. Give the points, should be a blowout.

Dallas -3 at GREEN BAY
The Cowboys are looking pretty good and the Packers... not so much. These teams are headed in opposite directions and Dallas should win handily. Sure, the game is at Lambeau, but I don't think that will matter. Green Bay can't block anyone and the Cowboys can bring the heat. Dallas 27-14.

UNDER 37, Denver at WASHINGTON
Against the spread, the Broncos are only 1-10 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 2-11 against teams with losing records, and 1-5 after playing on Monday nights. But I don't trust this Washington team only getting 4 points. But I do like this game to stay under the total of 37 points. The under is 6-1 in Broncos games and 5-2 in Washington games. And both teams have good defenses so it's not like the over/unders have been set high. This one smells like 17-9 or 20-13. Take the under.

PITTSBURGH -7 vs. Cincinnati
That line seems high doesn't it? The Bengals are good and have already beaten the Steelers. This is a big-time divisional showdown so the line should be Pitt -3 or maybe 4 right? Go ahead and take the Bengals, but that's what Vegas is hoping you'll do. I think Cincinnati is playing with house money and they're overdue to come back to earth and lay an egg. The Steelers are rolling in every facet of the game and this week they'll come out at home and make a statement that they are still the Champs, and they're still the bullies of the AFC North. Give the points, Steelers will cruise.

New England +3 at INDIANAPOLIS
In fact, if you can get good odds, play the Patriots money line (+125) cuz I think New England hands the Indy their first loss. The Colts have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. They have injuries everywhere, while the Pats are starting to get on a roll. I hate to go against Peyton Manning in a TV/night game, but I think we'll see a return of that frustrated face he makes when things go wrong and the Patriots come away with a big win.

THE TEASER
Okay, for this week's teaser, I'm gonna pair up a couple of crappy games just in case one or both ends up getting shown on TV in your market and you need a reason to watch. Let's tease the Vikings down from -16.5 to -10.5 at home against the Lions and then tease the Chiefs up to +8 at Oakland. The first one needs no explanation, Minnesota will kill Detroit and moving the line down 6 points just helps assure that they'll cover the spread. In the other game, KC is pretty bad, but do you trust the Raiders to beat ANYone by more than a TD? Maybe Syracuse? So your teaser is Vikes -10.5 with the Chiefs +8.

Alright, that's it for this week's picks. Get those leaves cleaned up, don't worry about Aerosmith breaking up, and check back Monday for the MNF pick. Good luck.

Last Week: 3-5
Season Total: 40-26-2

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