Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread

By Todd L. Frank | Friday, November 20, 2009 | ( 0 )

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It’s time to give you some free NFL picks for Week 11. Not every game is listed, just what I think are some of the best bets against the spread. These free picks are against the most current point spreads as of Thursday evening.

If you’re a casual bettor or even just an office pool junkie, a good place to check out how other people are making their NFL picks is the forums over at BangTheBook.com. The site also offers reviews of reputable online gambling sites, but the forums (http://www.bangthebook.com/forum/) have cool contests and you can also post your own analysis of the games and interact with others making NFL picks against the spread.

OK let’s get right to this week’s free NFL picks. The best bet is the first team listed; home team is in CAPS.

Washington +11 at DALLAS
Sure, Washington has been a train wreck much of the year and deserve to be underdogs on the road. But 11 points? Really? Washington might stink, but they have been a sneaky cover in some games this year and are still unpredictable with everything going on. This game is often a war no matter the records. (Remember Aikman's rookie year... Washington was good, Dallas was 1-15. Guess who they got the win against?) Over the last couple seasons, Washington is 3-1 against the spread vs. the Cowboys, including 2-0 ATS in Dallas. Sure, Washington is a mess and Dallas should win.... but do you trust Tony Romo and Wade Phillips giving 11 to a desperate divisional opponent with a good defense? Me neither, take the points.

Buffalo +8.5 at JACKSONVILLE
This week’s Gut Feel pick. The Jags, while up and down and tough to figure out, are better than the Bills. But Buffalo just fired their coach and re-inserted the gritty Ryan Fitzpatrick as starting QB so maybe they’ve got a little spark this week. Jacksonville tends to play down to their opponents. They should get the win, but 8.5 is just too many points. Take Buffalo.

OAKLAND +9.5 vs. Cincinnati
So maybe this one is the Gut Feel pick. The Bengals have proven to be for real by sweeping both the Ravens and Steelers while Oakland has proven to stink by being the Raiders. But Oakland has finally benched JaMarcus Russell and Cincy might be set up for a classic let down game. Remember, the Eagles went out to Oakland and lost.
The Bengals are looking at the Raiders, Browns, and Lions the next 3 weeks. So they are probably on cruise control looking to lock up the division and possibly compete for home-field advantage in the playoffs. A long flight out west after back-to-back games against the physical Ravens and Steelers might leave Cincy just flat enough to only win by about 6. Take Oakland and the points.

Indianapolis -1 at BALTIMORE
Let me get this straight: the Colts are undefeated and the Ravens are coming off a short week after an ugly win at Cleveland in which the game was tied at 0 at halftime. Pass rush specialist Terrell Suggs is out. Baltimore’s pass D was already very suspect, and now they face one of the best QB’s in the history of the planet. On top of that, the Colts not only have a horseshoe on their helmet, they’ve also got a lucky one up their ass. And Indy is only favored by 1? I know the Colts D is banged up, but Manning should shred the Ravens and make Flacco and Co one dimensional playing from behind. I will admit, the Ravens are good at home and Vegas obviously values them in that spot. Look for Matt Stover to bang home a kick to beat his former team who will lose to their city’s former team as their playoff hopes slip away.

Colts/Ravens OVER 44
OK so I just mentioned that Baltimore was scoreless against the lowly Browns at halftime last week. But Cleveland played well defensively while the Ravens were out of synch on the road on Monday night. They should be sharper at home against an injured Colts defense that’s given up an average of 25.5 points the last 2 weeks. As I mentioned above in the Indy pick, Manning should have his way with the Ravens secondary and Flacco and Ray Rice will make some plays to try to keep up. You only need a 24-21 game to send this one over the total, and I could see this one going more like 34-24. Take the Over.

TEASER #1
This is the Last Year’s Super Bowl Teaser: take Pittsburgh and tease them down to -4 and pair them up with the Cardinals teased down to -3 at St. Louis.

TEASER #2
This is the NFC Championship Preview Teaser: take Minnesota and tease them down to 4.5 at home against Seattle and pair them up with New Orleans teased down to 5.5 at Tampa Bay.

That’s it for this week’s free picks and best bets. Check out the awesome Them Crooked Vultures CD, ignore Sarah Palin, and enjoy the games.

Last Week: 4-4
Season Total: 44-30-2

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